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Ewood Park on a September Saturday afternoon. There is something about that setting that never gets old, and this weekend it comes loaded with real meaning for both clubs. Blackburn Rovers are stuck in a rut, five games without a win and sliding uncomfortably close to the Championship relegation zone, while Millwall arrive with momentum behind them after a thumping league win but carrying the bruise of a late cup exit in midweek. Neither side can really afford to drop points here, and that kind of pressure tends to produce football worth watching.
Tony Mowbray needs a response from his squad, and quickly. A point above the bottom three is not where anyone at Blackburn expected to be at this stage of the season. Millwall, on the other hand, are in the top half and chasing West Brom at the summit, but their record at Ewood Park is absolutely dreadful, and that history will not be lost on Alex Neil as he prepares his side. This is a genuinely fascinating Championship clash between two clubs moving in very different directions, and the tension on the touchline should be visible from the stands.
Blackburn Rovers host Millwall at Ewood Park on Saturday 12th September 2026 with a 3:00pm kickoff. The match is a Sky Bet Championship fixture and takes place in front of what should be a full and vocal home crowd given the stakes involved for Rovers.
Blackburn have a notable injury list heading into the weekend, though there is some positive news on the availability front. Mowbray will be hoping to have Andri Gudjohnsen back in the starting eleven after the striker missed Tuesday’s defeat to Sheffield United with a quad problem. Moussa Baradji could also feature in the matchday squad for the first time this season after his own pre-season setback. The following players remain unavailable:
Millwall are also dealing with a lengthy casualty list of their own. Casper De Norre and Josh Coburn are the most recent additions after picking up knocks in the defeat to Wrexham, and they join a significant group of absentees. Mark Sykes is a potential boost, with the winger potentially back in contention after missing two matches under concussion protocol. The full list of Millwall absentees includes:
Mowbray looks set to go with the spine that has served him reasonably well in terms of structure, even if results have not followed. If Gudjohnsen is passed fit, he starts up front. Kristi Montgomery will want to continue her midweek contribution despite the defeat, and the wide pairing of Morishita and Afolayan will be tasked with providing width and penetration against a Millwall side who defend with real organisation.
Blackburn predicted lineup: Pears; Alebiosu, Atcheson, McLoughlin, Ribeiro; Montgomery, Morsy; Morishita, Cantwell, Afolayan; Gudjohnsen
Neil has fewer options than he would like in midfield given the absences, but the spine of his side looks solid enough. Lyndon Dykes leads the line after his brace against Bolton, and the wide men behind him will be expected to support quickly and press from the front. Millwall are a side who tend to be hard to break down even when they are not at their best.
Millwall predicted lineup: Crocombe; Osei-Tutu, Taylor, Cooper, Sturge; Mazou-Sacko, Metcalfe; Esse, Arconte, Neghli; Dykes
Blackburn’s season began with genuine promise. Picking up four points from opening fixtures against Wolves and Middlesbrough suggested a side that had been well drilled and was ready to compete in the top half of the Championship. But the wheels came off almost immediately after that. Back to back EFL Cup and league defeats to Sheffield United and QPR set a worrying tone, and a goalless draw at home to newly promoted Lincoln City did nothing to lift the mood. Then came consecutive losses to Preston and Sheffield United again, the latter seeing Blackburn lead through an early Montgomery strike only to concede twice before half time. Five points from six league games and sitting in 18th place is a genuinely alarming position for a club that was dreaming of better things.
Millwall’s campaign has been far more eventful in terms of swing and momentum. Two opening wins without conceding a goal suggested a resolute and organised unit, then came a brutal reality check in the form of a 5-1 thumping at Southampton followed by a 3-0 home defeat to Wrexham. That is the kind of double blow that can derail a promotion push before it has even started, but Alex Neil’s side responded brilliantly. The 4-0 demolition of Bolton was a proper statement result, with Dykes grabbing a brace and the whole performance oozing confidence. The midweek cup exit to Newcastle stings, but it came from a Joe Willock strike with less than ten minutes left. Millwall were competitive throughout, and that will give Neil something to build on.
The contrast in momentum here is interesting. Blackburn are low on confidence and searching for a result that will get their season back on track. Millwall are coming off a morale-sapping cup exit but know their league form has been solid enough, and they sit eighth with a game in hand on the teams above them. On paper you would take Millwall, but form books and head to head records do not always point the same way in the Championship.
This is where the narrative gets really compelling for Blackburn fans. Rovers have won each of their last three meetings with Millwall, including a 2-0 home win in last season’s equivalent fixture at Ewood Park. Go back a little further and the pattern is even more stark. Millwall have won just one of their last twelve encounters with Blackburn, and that solitary victory feels like a long time ago. More pertinently for Saturday, the Lions have not left Ewood Park with all three points since March 2013. That is over thirteen years without a win at this ground.
This kind of statistical weight matters in football, particularly in the Championship where confidence and belief play such a huge role in game management. Millwall’s players will be aware of that record whether their manager mentions it or not. And for a Blackburn side desperately short on momentum, that head to head history might just be the psychological edge that makes a difference when the game is tight and tense in the final twenty minutes.
This is a game that has draw written all over it. Blackburn desperately need something from the match but lack the cutting edge to really punish a well-organised Millwall back line. Millwall have the quality to win here on another day, but their awful away record at this ground and the fatigue factor from a midweek cup tie are real concerns. Both sides are likely to be cautious and competitive rather than open and expansive, and that shapes most of the markets below.
Both teams to score is an each way call here rather than a banker. Millwall have shown they can hurt teams going forward, and Blackburn did get on the scoresheet in midweek before defensive frailty cost them. But both sides also have stretches of their recent form where they have looked well organised and hard to break down. A cagey affair where one or both teams fail to score would not be a surprise, so we are leaning towards no on BTTS for this one.
Under 2.5 goals feels like the right call here. Neither side is in the kind of free-scoring form that makes you back a goalfest, and Championship fixtures between two defensively structured teams managed by coaches who prioritise organisation tend to produce tight, low-scoring affairs. A one goal game or a draw with a single goal separating them seems far more likely than anything resembling an open thriller.
A 1-1 draw is the scoreline we are going with. Blackburn look capable of nicking something at home given that psychological edge from the head to head, and Millwall have enough quality in attack through Dykes and the players around him to get themselves on the scoresheet. A share of the spoils at 1-1 fits the narrative of two cautious, competitive sides cancelling each other out on a typically tense Championship Saturday.
Lyndon Dykes is the pick here. The Scottish international scored twice in the 4-0 win against Bolton and is clearly full of confidence right now. He offers physicality, aerial threat and the kind of direct running that can cause problems for a Blackburn back four that has been shaky in recent weeks. He is the obvious focal point of Millwall’s attack and has the momentum behind him to deliver again.
We are going under 10 corners for this one. Both sides tend to be pragmatic and direct rather than teams who recycle possession endlessly and invite corners through sustained wide play. Championship fixtures in this tier of the table often produce fewer set piece situations than you might expect, and with both sides likely to be tight and disciplined, the corner count should stay modest throughout the ninety minutes.
Expect bookings. This is a physical Championship clash between two sides with plenty riding on the result, and Millwall in particular are not a team that shy away from the aggressive side of the game. Blackburn’s midfield will need to be combative to hold their own. We would not be surprised to see three or four yellow cards across the ninety minutes, and backing over 3.5 cards looks decent value given the intensity this fixture tends to generate.
Combine Lyndon Dykes to score at any time, under 2.5 goals in the match, and over 3.5 cards. Dykes is in form and will cause problems, the game looks set up to be tight and low scoring given both sides’ recent defensive showings, and the competitive nature of the fixture should ensure the referee is kept busy with his notebook throughout. That combination offers a sensible and well-reasoned bet builder angle on what should be a closely fought 90 minutes.
Everything points toward a tight, nervy game that ends without a clear winner. Blackburn have that head to head record working in their favour, and home advantage at Ewood Park is not to be underestimated, but they are low on confidence and goals have been hard to come by. Millwall have more quality on paper in the current moment, but their appalling record at this ground is a real obstacle, and a midweek cup run that ended in late heartbreak will not have left the legs feeling fresh.
Our prediction is Blackburn Rovers 1-1 Millwall. A competitive, scrappy affair where both sides do enough to avoid defeat without ever truly threatening to win it. A point each feels like the most honest outcome, and given where both clubs are right now, it would be taken by most people connected with either dressing room.