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Celje
Red Bull SalzburgCelje are staring down the barrel in this Europa League campaign before it has barely got going. Two games played, two defeats, zero goals scored, and the Slovenian champions sitting rock bottom of the league phase table in 35th. There is no sugar coating it. This is a side that came through the summer with genuine ambition and has found the step up in class to be an extremely uncomfortable one. For Red Bull Salzburg, this is a chance to plant a flag in the league phase and show that their 4-0 hammering at the hands of AC Milan last week was an anomaly rather than a measure of where they actually are.
Danny Rohl knows his side cannot afford to look back at last season’s league phase disaster, where they shipped six defeats in eight games and finished 31st. They already have three points on the board from matchday one, and a win in Slovenia would put them in a genuinely strong position to build something this time around. Salzburg arrive with an unbeaten away record across all competitions this season, five wins and four draws on the road, and they have kept clean sheets in five of their last six away assignments. All of that points in one direction.
This Europa League league phase fixture takes place at the Stadion Z’dezele in Celje, Slovenia. It is a must not lose situation for the home side, who are already two points adrift of the teams directly above them after conceding five goals and finding the net precisely zero times in their opening two outings. Salzburg, competing in the Europa League main draw for a second straight season, make the trip as the form side and the clear favourites.
Celje have a few selection issues to work through, though the bigger question for manager Zoran Zeljkovic is less about personnel and more about how he sets his side up to actually score a goal for the first time in this competition.
Celje look set to line up with Leban in goal behind a back four of Sirvys, Bejger, Tutyskinas and Avdyli, with Kvesic and Zabukovnik in the middle of the park. Dukuly, Seslar and Verbic are expected to operate across the attacking midfield line, with Kramer leading the front line if he gets the nod to return after his weekend on the bench.
Salzburg should set up with Zawieschitzky between the sticks, a back four of Morgalla, Boma, Zabransky and Schmid, and Barry and Mazurek in central midfield. Redzic, Kitano and Lindstrom are expected across the forward areas, with Haris Tabakovic leading the line as the focal point of the attack.
Celje’s form under Zeljkovic makes for grim reading. Across his first five competitive matches in charge, his side have failed to score in four of them. There is a W1, D2, L2 record that includes goalless stalemates and heavy European beatings. The 2-0 loss at Bayer Leverkusen was tough but understandable given the opposition. The 3-0 home defeat to Omonia was far more alarming, a result that will have raised real questions in the dressing room about how ready this squad genuinely is for this level. A goalless draw on the road at leaders Maribor at the weekend at least stopped the bleeding domestically, but it did nothing to suggest Celje are suddenly finding their attacking rhythm.
Salzburg’s form tells a wildly different story in terms of overall output, even if the Milan result left a mark. Three points from matchday one courtesy of a 1-0 win over Levski Sofia was a solid start, and being torn apart 4-0 at home by a ruthless Milan side stung, but they bounced back immediately with a commanding 3-0 win over Altach in the Austrian Bundesliga. Tabakovic, Lindstrom and Redzic all got on the scoresheet that day, which is exactly the kind of confidence boost a forward line needs ahead of a tough trip. They sit three points off the top of the Austrian table and look in decent shape heading into this one.
The contrast in momentum here is stark. Celje are winless in their last four European games. Salzburg have not lost away from home in any competition this season. That difference in confidence and belief could be decisive over the ninety minutes.
These two sides have not met frequently enough to draw sweeping conclusions from the head to head record, but what is clear is that Salzburg arrive as the more experienced outfit at this level and have historically been comfortable when travelling in Europe. Celje are a relatively new presence on the continental stage, and their debut in the Europa League league phase this season has underlined just how big the gap can be between Slovenian football and the top end of European competition.
Everything in this fixture points toward Salzburg. They carry more quality, more confidence, a better recent record on the road, and they are facing a side that genuinely cannot buy a goal right now. Celje at home should not be completely written off because every team fights harder in front of their own fans, but the numbers make it very difficult to back the Slovenians to do much more than make Salzburg work for their points.
A 1-2 Salzburg win feels like the right call here. Celje will dig in and may well find the net at last, especially with Kramer potentially back in the lineup, but Salzburg have the quality to nick a goal either side of half time and see this out professionally. Their away defensive record backs up the idea that this will not turn into a chaotic open game.
Under 2.5 goals is worth considering given how defensively disciplined Salzburg tend to be away from home, but the more appealing call is over 1.5 goals. Salzburg will score, and Celje will be desperate to end their goal drought, so getting at least two goals in the game feels like a realistic baseline. Back over 1.5 goals and keep it sensible.
Salzburg like to get forward and press high, which tends to generate corner situations, and Celje defending deep at home could see a fair few deliveries into the box. Over 8.5 corners looks playable here, with Salzburg likely to earn several from their attacking play and Celje potentially winning a few as they look to launch set piece threats of their own.
Haris Tabakovic is the standout pick here. He scored at the weekend against Altach and has been sharp all season for Salzburg. As the central striker leading their line, he is the most likely player to get on the end of their approach play. He has the physical presence to bully a Celje back line that has already conceded five in two European games, and he will fancy this one.
| Market | Selection |
|---|---|
| Match Result | Red Bull Salzburg to Win |
| Both Teams to Score | Yes |
| First Goalscorer | Haris Tabakovic |
Salzburg winning while Celje finally end their goal drought ticks the both teams to score box, and Tabakovic as the man to open the scoring ties it all together nicely.
Salzburg are the better side, the in form side, and the side with far more at stake in terms of building on a positive European campaign after last year’s disappointment. They know how to win ugly on the road, and they have the individual quality across their forward line to unlock a Celje defence that, while not without organisation, has already been exposed badly twice in this competition.
Celje 1-2 Red Bull Salzburg. The Slovenians give the home crowd something to cheer when they finally get off the mark in the Europa League, but Salzburg are professional enough and experienced enough to take the three points back to Austria.