Date of Tips: 08/10/2025
Disclaimer The odds for these selections were correct at the time of publishing (14:59 08/10/2025) but may have changed since. Please check the latest price before placing your bet.
Date: Saturday, 11 October 2025
Kick-off time: 19:45
Venue: A. Le Coq Arena, Tallinn
Another big night of international football. This time, it’s Estonia hosting Italy in Tallinn for the latest round of the World Cup 2026 European Qualifiers. The stakes? Huge for Italy, and let’s be honest, a mountain to climb for Estonia.
Estonia haven’t exactly been flying lately. They’re winless in their last six and have struggled to keep the goals out. Italy, on the other hand, have found their groove again. Three straight wins, goals galore, and a real sense that the Azzurri are back to business. So, could this one get ugly? Let’s dig in.
If you’re an Estonia fan, you’re probably hoping for a small miracle. The team have shown flashes of fight, but the numbers tell the story — five defeats in their last six and 13 goals conceded in that time. Their last match, a goalless draw with Andorra, summed things up: solid effort, no spark.
Head coach Thomas Häberli might keep things tight again, relying on counterattacks and set pieces. One bright spot? Mihkel Ainsalu. The Levadia midfielder has found a bit of form lately and could be key if Estonia are to make anything happen in front of their home fans.
Defensively, though, it’s been rough. They’ve been leaking goals, and facing Italy’s firepower isn’t exactly the kind of fixture you want when your back line is low on confidence. You can almost sense that “backs against the wall” feeling.
Now, Italy arrive in Tallinn looking confident — and dangerous. After that wild 5-4 win over Israel, they’ve scored 14 goals in their last three games. Yeah, 14. That tells you everything about their attacking rhythm right now.
Expect to see Moise Kean leading the line. The Fiorentina striker has been sharp and clinical, bagging two goals against Israel and another in their last meeting with Estonia. Behind him, you’ve got creative sparks like Giacomo Raspadori, Matteo Politano, and Sandro Tonali ready to pull the strings.
A few squad updates: Matteo Gabia and Bryan Cristante are back, adding depth to defense and midfield, but Alessandro Buongiorno misses out through injury. Still, with the talent Italy have, you wouldn’t expect that to make much difference.
Manager Luciano Spalletti has them playing with real intent — high tempo, pressing, and loads of movement up top. You can tell they’re chasing top spot in Group I, and they won’t want any slip-ups here.
Estonia: Hein; Teniste, Paskotsi, Tamm, Kuusk; Ainsalu, Purg, Käit; Zenjov, Anier, Sappinen
Italy: Donnarumma; Di Lorenzo, Bastoni, Mancini, Dimarco; Barella, Tonali, Cristante; Politano, Raspadori, Kean
This one feels like a long night for Estonia. Italy have hit top gear in attack, and Estonia’s defense just hasn’t been able to handle quick, technical sides. The Azzurri love dominating possession, and against a team like Estonia, they’ll probably have close to 70% of the ball again.
So, what does that mean for betting angles? Italy to win is a given, but you can look deeper:
If you’re after a scoreline bet, 0-3 feels about right. Italy are too strong, too fast, too organized. Estonia will fight, but this could get out of hand if Italy really click early.
Let’s be real — Italy should dominate this from start to finish. You’ll probably see a lot of blue shirts camped around Estonia’s box, peppering the goal with shots. Estonia’s best hope is to hang in there, frustrate Italy, and maybe sneak something on a break.
But can they hold out for 90 minutes? Hard to see it. Italy have too much quality in attack. They’re ruthless once they get going, and Estonia’s back line doesn’t have the pace to contain them.
Match Prediction: Italy to win. Bet with bet365.
If Italy bring their shooting boots, this could easily end 3-0 or even 4-0. The Azzurri haven’t looked this confident in a while, and they’ll see this as a chance to rack up goal difference. Estonia might hold out for a bit, but once the first goes in, the floodgates could open.
Correct Score Prediction: Estonia 0–3 Italy. Bet with bet365.
If you’re betting totals, it’s all pointing one way — over 2.5 goals. Italy’s last six have averaged over four goals per match. Estonia concede plenty, and Italy love to score early and often. Over 3.5 is a riskier play, but it’s got potential if Italy get going before halftime.
Over/Under Prediction: Over 2.5 Goals. Bet with bet365.
Alright, let’s build something fun for this one. You know those games where one side just looks way too strong on paper? Yeah, this feels like that. So, here’s a combo that makes sense if you fancy a little weekend flutter:
Bet Builder Tip:
That’s your “Italy in control” special. It covers the most likely outcomes — Italy bossing possession, scoring a few, and Estonia struggling to hit back. Kean’s been in great form, and Italy have scored three or more in each of their last three matches, so it all lines up nicely.
If you’re feeling bold, you could even push it to Italy to win both halves, but the safer play is the one above. Looks tidy, right?
Bet Builder Tip: Both teams to score – no, Over 2.5 goals, and Moise Kean to score anytime. Bet with bet365.
Key Stats
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Visit our football previews & predictions page for more betting tips on upcoming matches.
Italy will win. They’re in better form, have more quality, and score goals for fun.
A 3-0 Italy win looks likely, though a 4-0 wouldn’t shock anyone.
Unlikely. Italy should control the game, and Estonia rarely create enough chances against top sides.
Moise Kean and Giacomo Raspadori are the most likely scorers — both are in great form.
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