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Fulham
Manchester UnitedManchester United have not just been losing lately, they have been losing in the most United way imaginable. A two goal lead surrendered at Old Trafford against Brighton in the EFL Cup midweek, following on from an inability to break down ten men in the Manchester derby. That is not bad luck, that is a pattern. And patterns have a habit of continuing until something forces a change.
Fulham, meanwhile, are sitting on one Premier League point from four games under new boss Alvaro Arbeloa, which makes this a genuine six pointer for two clubs who both need a result badly. The pressure is real on both benches, and that makes Sunday afternoon at Craven Cottage a much more intriguing watch than the table positions alone might suggest.
This Premier League gameweek five fixture takes place at Craven Cottage, the tight and atmospheric riverside ground that has historically been a tough place for top six sides to visit despite Fulham’s yo-yo reputation. Both clubs arrive here with problems to solve and points to chase, which gives this bottom half battle a slightly uncomfortable edge that neither fanbase will be fully comfortable with.
Michael Carrick has a significant injury list to navigate, with several key names ruled out until after the international break. There is one potential positive on the horizon though, with Luke Shaw edging closer to fitness after missing the last two defeats with a minor thigh complaint.
Fulham have their own defensive headaches, particularly at full back. Kenny Tete is unavailable after going through concussion protocol following a head injury at Anfield, while Tom Cairney remains sidelined with a knee problem. Ryan Sessegnon is close to returning from a groin issue and faces a late fitness test.
Arbeloa looks set to go back to the side that frustrated Liverpool so effectively in gameweek four, with Palacios among those dropping out despite a goal and assist against West Ham. Oscar Bobb, who scored the winner in that cup tie, could well keep his place given the form he showed.
Fulham: Leno; Castagne, Affengruber, Bassey, Robinson; Berge, Charles; Bobb, King, Iwobi; Garcia
For United, Carrick is expected to bring back his senior players after rotating heavily for the cup. The big question is whether Shaw is fit enough to reclaim his spot at left back or whether Mazraoui continues. Lammens returns in goal, Maguire slots back in alongside Martinez, and Mainoo and Fernandes get their starts back in the engine room.
Manchester United: Lammens; Dalot, Maguire, Martinez, Shaw; Mainoo, Tielemans; Mbeumo, Fernandes, Cunha; Sesko
United’s run is genuinely alarming when you look at the detail. They have won just one of their four Premier League games this season, and only one clean sheet across all six competitive fixtures, a 4-0 Champions League win over Sabah that flatters the overall picture considerably. In their other five games they have conceded at least twice. That is not a defence going through a rough patch, that is a back line with structural problems that opponents are now clearly identifying and targeting.
The away form is particularly concerning given where this match is being played. United lost 2-0 at Hull and drew 2-2 at Everton in their two Premier League road trips so far, and if they fail to win here it would be the second consecutive season they have started with three away games without a win in the top flight. The Brighton defeat hurt not just because of the result but because of what it revealed. Leading 2-0 and still finding a way to lose at home, for the first time in half a century apparently, tells you everything about where the mental fragility sits in this squad right now.
Fulham are hardly flying either. One point from four league games is relegation form, but that solitary point came in genuinely difficult circumstances, holding Liverpool to a goalless draw at Anfield after shipping seven goals across their opening three fixtures. The defensive improvement was real, even if it was not sustained in the cup against West Ham. Arbeloa is finding his feet, but seven goals conceded in three Premier League games before that Liverpool result shows how bad things were at the start.
Whatever problems United are carrying into this one, the head to head record is firmly in their favour. The Red Devils are unbeaten in ten consecutive away trips to Craven Cottage, stretching all the way back to a 3-0 Fulham win in December 2009. That is a run spanning nearly seventeen years and multiple different iterations of both clubs.
Last season specifically, Fulham took just one point from six available against United in the Premier League, so even when the Cottagers were in better shape under Marco Silva, they were struggling to get anything from this fixture. History and recent precedent both point the same direction here.
Both defences have been leaking goals, both managers are under pressure, and there is enough quality in the United attack to trouble a Fulham back line that was still porous enough to concede twice in a cup tie against West Ham just midweek. The temptation to write United off given their form is understandable, but the away record here is not something you simply ignore, and when Carrick gets his senior players back from the bench there is genuine quality in that lineup.
Benjamin Sesko has been brought to Old Trafford to lead the line and this looks like a fixture where his physical presence up top could pay dividends against a Fulham centre back pairing still finding its feet under a new manager. He is the focal point of the United attack and at decent odds for first goalscorer, he represents genuine value.
Given the attacking intent on both sides and the defensive vulnerabilities running through both squads, a 2-1 United win feels about right. Fulham will likely grab one given how many goals have flown in at both ends this season, but United have the individual quality on the day to edge a scrappy, open affair at Craven Cottage.
Both sides have been getting forward with intent this season and neither defence is particularly commanding from set pieces. Oscar Bobb and Alex Iwobi causing problems wide for Fulham, combined with United’s delivery from Dalot and potentially Shaw on the other flank, points toward a high corners count. Over 10 match corners looks well worth backing here.
With five of United’s six competitive games involving at least two goals and Fulham having shipped seven in three Premier League outings before their Liverpool clean sheet, the goals market leans heavily toward over 2.5. These are two sides that simply do not keep things tight, and Sunday afternoon at the Cottage should produce at least three goals.
| Market | Selection |
|---|---|
| Match Result | Manchester United to Win |
| Over and Under Goals | Over 2.5 Goals |
| First Goalscorer | Benjamin Sesko |
United winning a goals heavy game with Sesko getting on the scoresheet ties the whole narrative of this preview together nicely, combining the historical away record with the attacking threat and the defensive frailty on show across both squads.
Carrick’s United are in a genuinely difficult moment, and nobody is pretending otherwise. Two defeats, a worrying defensive record, and a squad that looks stretched thin in key areas. But Fulham at Craven Cottage has been a happy hunting ground for United for the best part of two decades, and when you put Fernandes, Mbeumo, Cunha and Sesko in the same attack, there is enough firepower to find a way through a defence that was shipping goals for fun just a few weeks ago.
It will not be comfortable, it will not be pretty, and Fulham will likely get one back somewhere along the way. But United edge this one. Fulham 1-2 Manchester United.