Date of Tips: 21/11/2025
Disclaimer The odds for these selections were correct at the time of publishing (12:53 21/11/2025) but may have changed since. Please check the latest price before placing your bet.
Italy vs Northern Ireland kicks off this World Cup play-off semi-final in March, with the one-legged tie set to be played at the New Balance Arena in Bergamo. It’s a huge night for both sides, and the pressure is heavy on the hosts, who haven’t reached a World Cup since 2014. You’re probably already wondering how this Italy vs Northern Ireland prediction might shape up, so let’s dive in — because this one feels like a tense, psychological battle as much as a tactical one.
Italy come into this playoff with two big dilemmas that Gennaro Gattuso still hasn’t fully solved: mentality and tactics. His side have shown quality in spells — especially in attack with Mateo Retegui and Moise Kean linking well — but the Azzurri have also collapsed under pressure, most recently against Norway. Gattuso has been clear that the first job is fixing the mindset. He keeps telling his players to realise “how strong they are,” and you can see why: Gigio Donnarumma, Riccardo Calafiori, Sandro Tonali, the Inter core, plus attacking options like Retegui and Kean give Italy enough talent to win these two playoff matches. But confidence isn’t something you fix overnight.
On the tactical side, the big question is simple: four-man defence or a 3-5-2? Gattuso has tried both, despite saying early on he preferred a back four. He even switched to a three-man defence in the loss to Norway. The issue is creativity out wide. Italy’s most natural wingers — Riccardo Orsolini and Mattia Zaccagni — offer flashes, but not guaranteed top-level output. Federico Chiesa could change that if he returns, but that’s still unclear.
Northern Ireland arrive from a different angle entirely. They made the playoffs through their Nations League route and were pulled from Pot 4, meaning a tough draw was always likely. Michael O’Neill knows this trip is daunting, but Northern Ireland tend to embrace that kind of underdog role. Their recent lineups suggest a young group mixed with familiar pieces: Conor Hazard in goal, Conor Bradley leading from the right, Paddy McNair at the back, and attacking responsibility shared by players like Joel Donley and Isaac Price.
Donnarumma; Di Lorenzo, Mancini, Bastoni, Dimarco; Frattesi, Locatelli, Barella; Politano; Retegui, Esposito.
(Sub options include Carnesecchi, Vicario, Bellanova, Buongiorno, Ricci, Raspadori, Scamacca, Gabbia, Christante, Orsolini, Cambiaso, Zaccagni.)
Hazard; McConville, McNair, Brown, Bradley; Lyons, McDonnell, Lewis, Galbraith; Donley, Price.
(Sub options include Southwood, Toal, Johnson, Devlin, Marshall, Charles, Smyth, Devenny, McCausland, Kelly, Magennis, Clarke.)
You don’t need odds to get a sense of the landscape here. Italy are at home and naturally stronger on talent, but you can’t ignore their recent fragility. So if you’re looking at betting angles, think along these lines:
1. Italy to win but not comfortably
Given Italy’s psychological issues and Northern Ireland’s willingness to disrupt, a narrow home victory feels more realistic than a rout.
2. Under 3.5 goals
Neither side screams high-scoring chaos. Italy create chances but often struggle to finish consistently, while Northern Ireland typically play compact in tough away fixtures.
3. Both teams not to score
Northern Ireland will try to keep this tight, but breaking Italy down in Bergamo is still a big task.
Here’s what I think: Italy should control this game, and you’d expect them to create more than enough opportunities to win it. But the Azzurri haven’t looked mentally steady in years, and these playoffs always drag up their demons. Northern Ireland won’t have the ball for long spells, but they can frustrate, defend in numbers, and hope to pinch something from a set-piece or a rare transition.
Still, the technical gap is big, and Italy’s attacking pair of Retegui and Kean — or Retegui and Esposito — gives them enough power to edge the game. A patient, uncomfortable Italy win seems the most realistic outcome.
Match Prediction: Italy to win. Bet with bet365.
If Italy score early, they may settle. If not, this could be a long night.
Correct Score Prediction: Italy 2–0 Northern Ireland. Bet with bet365.
Over/Under Prediction: Under 2.5 Goals. Bet with bet365.
A simple, grounded builder might look like:
Nothing risky — just reflecting the likely rhythm of the match.
Bet Builder Tip: Italy to qualify, under 3.5 match goals, both teams to score – no. Bet with bet365.
Key Stats
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Italy should edge it, mainly because of their technical quality and home advantage.
Yes, but they’ll need a perfect defensive performance and Italy to wobble under pressure.
A narrow Italy win — 1–0 or 2–0.
Almost certainly. Northern Ireland will focus on shape and counters.
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