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Date published: September 27, 2026
Mexico
ColombiaThere is something genuinely fascinating about this one. Two nations who came into the 2026 World Cup in the form of their lives, both found themselves on the right side of the group stage, both showed they belonged at that level, and both ended up going home earlier than they deserved. Now they meet in Baltimore carrying that shared sense of unfinished business, each trying to figure out what comes next. For the neutral, this is exactly the kind of international friendly that actually means something.
Mexico are under new management and looking to rewrite a recent chapter that has been painful reading against this specific opponent. Colombia meanwhile want to prove their World Cup run was not a fluke and that they can kick on under Nestor Lorenzo. The talent on the pitch may not be at full strength, but the motivation absolutely is.
The two sides face off at the M&T Bank Stadium in Baltimore, with this fixture part of a series of international friendlies being held across the United States during the current break. It is a prestigious venue for a game that carries more weight than your average warm-up fixture, with both squads using the opportunity to work through new ideas ahead of next year’s Copa America.
Both managers are dealing with notable absences, and the squads heading into this one look quite different from the sides that featured at the World Cup over the summer.
Rafael Marquez faces an interesting selection puzzle in his first squad as Mexico boss. With Ochoa gone and Jimenez unavailable up top, the new gaffer has leaned into youth but has Lozano back to provide some experience and creativity out wide. Expect a back four with Montes marshalling things centrally and Pineda offering drive from midfield.
Mexico: Rangel; Reyes, Montes, Vasquez, Chavez Garcia; Mora, Lira, Pineda; Alvarado, Gimenez, Lozano
Lorenzo has decisions to make across his frontline without Diaz pulling strings on the left. Arias is likely to carry significant creative responsibility in midfield, while Asprilla and Gomez could give Colombia real pace and directness in the final third. The spine looks solid enough, but the attacking combinations are yet to be proven together.
Colombia: Mier; Munoz, Sanchez, Lucumi, Angulo Mosquera; Puerta, Rios, Arias; Asprilla, Suarez, Gomez
Mexico arrive at this fixture off the back of a memorable World Cup campaign on home soil, even if it ended in heartbreak. Marquez’s predecessors had them winning six and drawing two of their eight pre-tournament matches, and then El Tricolor went through Group A unbeaten, winning all three games, keeping clean sheets throughout and scoring six times. A 2-0 win over Ecuador in the Round of 32 was genuinely impressive and raised hopes of a deep run. The 3-2 defeat to Thomas Tuchel’s England at the Azteca, though, was the end of the road, and it hit hard. Their most recent outing was a thumping 5-1 friendly win over Serbia, so there is some confidence going into this one.
Colombia’s trajectory heading into the summer was equally encouraging. Only France and Croatia had beaten them in their previous 13 fixtures before the tournament kicked off. They topped Group K, beat Ghana 1-0 in the Round of 32 thanks to an Arias strike, and were painfully eliminated by Switzerland on penalties after a goalless 90 minutes and extra time in Vancouver. A 4-3 shootout defeat is brutal in any language. Their last outing was a 2-0 win over Jordan, keeping them ticking over without overly testing the squad.
There is a sense with both sides that the World Cup exits have created a reset moment. For Mexico that comes with the additional shake-up of a new manager. For Colombia, Lorenzo is trying to maintain the momentum of what was a successful summer despite the gut-punch exit. The motivation to hit the ground running is clear on both benches.
This is where it gets uncomfortable reading for the Mexico camp. El Tricolor have lost each of their last four meetings with Colombia, conceding 12 goals across those four matches. That is an average of three goals per game going the wrong way, and it tells a story about how this particular rivalry has been tilted firmly in Colombia’s favour in recent years.
The most recent chapter was written in October 2025, when Colombia handed Mexico a 4-0 thumping. That result alone should sharpen the mind of every player in the Mexico dressing room this week. Marquez will want to end that streak immediately and send a message about the direction his team are heading. Colombia will know full well that their record against this opponent has been dominant and will carry that confidence into the game.
With missing players on both sides, a new manager finding his feet, and a head to head record that points firmly in Colombia’s favour, this is a game where finding value requires a bit of thought. We are not expecting a goal-fest given the defensive caution both teams are likely to show, but Colombia’s quality and confidence against this specific opponent makes them worth backing to do something in this game.
Neither side is likely to be particularly dominant in terms of territory, and with both teams still building combinations in this new-look period, expect a relatively modest corner count. We would lean toward the under on the corners total, with something in the range of 8 or 9 total corners feeling about right for a tight, tactical friendly.
Given the caginess you would expect from two sides in transition and the fact that neither has their full first-choice attack available, a 1-1 draw feels like a very plausible outcome. Mexico have shown they can keep the ball out in tournament football, and Colombia without Diaz are not the same attacking force, but they retain enough quality to find the net at least once.
Under 2.5 goals looks like the sensible call here. The absences on both sides thin out the attacking options considerably, and with both managers likely to focus on shape and structure in what is effectively an early building block match, goals may well be at a premium. Neither backline is going to be ripped apart easily by what are somewhat makeshift attacks.
International friendlies can sometimes pass off without a great deal of controversy, but there is enough of an edge to this particular rivalry to expect a few firm challenges. A moderate number of bookings feels likely, with three or four cards across the 90 minutes a reasonable expectation. Neither side will want to go down to ten men but the competitive history between them adds a little spice.
BTTS no feels like the right call here. Mexico are stretched in attack without Jimenez and Quinones, and Colombia are without their most creative outlet in Diaz. The chances are there for both sides to score, but the likelihood of one clean sheet being kept is reasonable given how conservative both managers may choose to be in an experimental lineup. We are going no on BTTS.
Jhon Arias is the man to watch. He has already shown at this tournament level that he can deliver in the big moments, having scored the decisive goal against Ghana at the World Cup. Without Diaz leading the line in the usual sense, Arias will carry a significant share of the creative and goalscoring burden for Colombia, and he looks like a strong shout to open the scoring.
| Market | Selection |
|---|---|
| Match Result | Draw |
| Total Goals | Under 2.5 |
| Both Teams To Score | No |
A tight, low-scoring draw with only one side finding the net fits the profile of a cautious, transitional friendly between two teams navigating change without their full complement of attacking talent.
This is a genuinely difficult game to call with confidence. Colombia have been the superior side in recent meetings by some distance and they carry that momentum into Baltimore. However, Mexico under a new manager with something to prove and on a different kind of mission may just find enough to avoid defeat. The absentees on both sides level things up to some extent.
We think this one ends 1-1. Mexico finally halt the losing streak against Colombia but do not quite have the firepower to push on and win it. Lorenzo’s side are too good to be blanked, even without Diaz, and Arias will likely be the difference maker for them going forward. A point each feels like a fair reflection of where both squads are at this particular moment in their rebuilds.
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