Sturm Graz vs Marseille Prediction, Betting Tips & Preview

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Sturm Graz

vs

Marseille

KickoffThursday 22 October 2026, 5:45pm

VenueMerkur Arena Graz

CompetitionUEFA Europa League

Marseille arrive in Graz with nothing to show for their Europa League campaign so far, and the question hanging over this one is simple enough: can they finally get off the mark, or will Sturm Graz add to their misery on home soil? Two teams heading in opposite directions on the continent, but with a few nuances that make this more interesting than a straightforward call.

We have dug into the form, the stats, the team news and the head to head to try and give you a proper steer on where the value is. Here is everything you need to know.

Sturm Graz vs Marseille Match Details

This Europa League League Phase fixture takes place at the Liebenauer Stadium in Graz, Austria. It is matchday three of the League Phase, and the stakes could hardly be more different for the two sides heading into it. Sturm Graz sit just below the knockout phase line with one point, while Marseille are one of nine clubs yet to get off the mark in the competition this season.

Team News

Sturm Graz have a fairly congested injury list heading into this one, which could force Fabio Ingolitsch into some awkward selections across the park.

• Daniil Khudyakov: lower leg fracture, likely out
• Gizo Mamageishvili: sore foot, doubtful
• Otar Kiteishvili: calf strain, doubtful
• Nelson Weiper: groin pain, questionable
• Filip Rozga: muscle tightness, may be omitted
• Seedy Jatta: shoulder issue, doubtful
• Emran Soglo: hamstring strain, doubtful
• Leon Grgic: cruciate ligament tear, out

For Marseille, Pierre-Emile Hojbjerg is touch and go after missing time with a leg injury, and Derek Cornelius is a doubt with a hip problem. Bruno Genesio is not exactly flush with options in certain areas of the pitch.

Predicted Lineups

Sturm Graz look set to line up in a shape that gives them defensive structure first, with Ingolitsch likely to go with what he knows at home. The injury to Soglo adds a complication in midfield, but the core of the side should remain recognisable.

Helac; Malic, Hodl, Koller, Balbo; Heil, Stankovic, Weinhandl, Soglo; Seidl, Diakite

Marseille will likely set up in a way that gives them width and tries to get runners in behind. Abdallah, their only Europa League scorer so far, should start. If Hojbjerg misses out again, Genesio needs his midfield to step up and provide some creativity.

De Lange; Weah, Meite, Aguerd, Palmieri; Abdallah, Mmadi; Harit, Abdelli, Paixao; Gouiri

Recent Form

Sturm Graz have had a difficult time finding their rhythm in Europe, going scoreless in both of their Europa League outings so far, including a 3-0 hammering at the hands of Bournemouth last week. That is concerning for a side that ranks fourth in the Austrian Bundesliga for goals this season. The continental stage has simply not brought out their attacking side, and Ingolitsch will know his forwards need to rediscover their touch quickly. At home though, the picture looks considerably brighter. They are unbeaten in their last five across all competitions on home soil, and that run includes a thoroughly emphatic 6-1 domestic battering of Grazer AK at the weekend. When they score at the Liebenauer in Europe, they win. Seven home European games on the bounce when getting on the scoresheet is a record worth respecting.

Marseille’s continental form is honestly a mess. They have been eliminated from a European League Phase in three of their last four campaigns, they have not won an away Europa League game since November 2023, and they have taken a combined 5-1 hammering across their first two matchday results this season including a 4-1 opening night defeat to Besiktas. But the Ligue 1 form tells a different story. Back to back wins in the French top flight, seven goals scored across those two away victories, and a climb from the relegation zone up to ninth. The talent is clearly there. The question is whether Genesio can get them performing at that level on a Thursday night in Austria.

What this boils down to is two sides who are hard to read. Sturm Graz look toothless in Europe but ferocious at home in domestic football. Marseille look lively in Ligue 1 but have been offered very little going forward in the Europa League, creating the second fewest big chances of any side in the competition this season. Neither trend can be fully trusted, and that makes this a genuinely tricky one to call.

Head-to-Head Record

These two sides have barely crossed paths, which makes historical data fairly limited. What we do know is that Sturm Graz beat Marseille the last time they hosted them on Austrian soil, a 3-2 Champions League thriller back in 1999. That is a long time ago, and the football landscape has changed almost beyond recognition since then, but the result does at least tell you that Marseille have form for making games interesting and throwing goals around when they face Sturm Graz.

From a Marseille perspective, their record on Austrian turf in European competition is not encouraging either. They fell 1-0 to Red Bull Salzburg in a group stage game back in 2017, and that same Salzburg side then knocked them out in the semi-finals later that season. Austrian venues have not been happy hunting grounds for the French club in Europe.

Key Stats

• Sturm Graz have won seven successive home European matches when scoring, a run stretching back to the 2023/24 Conference League knockout phase
• Marseille have not won an away Europa League game since November 2023, a winless run stretching to six matches as a visitor in the competition
• Sturm Graz are one of only three sides yet to score in the Europa League League Phase after two matchdays, despite being the fourth highest scorers in the Austrian Bundesliga this season

Sturm Graz vs Marseille Betting Tips

This has low scoring, hard fought draw written all over it. Sturm Graz are solid at home and desperately need a goal to ignite their Europa League campaign, while Marseille are woeful at creating genuine chances in this competition despite their domestic resurgence. We are not expecting a thriller, but we do think both sides nick something here.

Over and Under Goals Prediction

Under 2.5 goals looks the play. Neither side has been clinical in Europe this season, Marseille rank second bottom for big chances created in the League Phase, and Sturm Graz have been completely shut out in both of their continental outings. A tight, scrappy game feels far more likely than a goal fest.

Corners Prediction

Expect a decent clip of corners here. Sturm Graz will be pushing forward in front of their home crowd and looking to win the territory battle, while Marseille tend to sit in compact blocks and invite pressure when they are not fully confident going forward. Over 9.5 corners is worth a look given the likely shape of this game.

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) Prediction

This is genuinely close to call, but we are leaning towards yes. Marseille have the forward talent to nick one even when they are not at their best, and Sturm Graz at home with the backing of their crowd should eventually find a way through. Their domestic form shows the goals are in there. BTTS yes is our call.

Correct Score Prediction

A 1-1 draw feels like the most natural landing spot for this fixture. Sturm Graz find the goal that unlocks their home European record, Marseille grab a scrappy equaliser through one of their attacking players, and both sides walk away with a point that feels about right for where they are in this campaign.

Cards Prediction

A competitive Europa League group stage fixture with both sides under pressure to perform should produce a decent card count. Midfield battles tend to get feisty when stakes are high and both teams are desperate for points. Over 3.5 cards feels reasonable, with Sturm Graz likely to be physical in their pressing and Marseille potentially getting frustrated as the game wears on.

First Goalscorer Prediction

Keyliane Abdallah is the obvious shout from the Marseille side. She is their only Europa League scorer this season and looks sharp enough in the final third to cause problems. If Marseille do get on the board, it is hard to look past her as the one to open the scoring.

Bet Builder Tip

A 1-1 scoreline ties all three of these together neatly, and given the defensive solidity of Sturm Graz at home and Marseille’s struggles to create in Europe, one goal each with nothing more feels like the most likely outcome here.

Final Match Prediction

Sturm Graz are a tough nut to crack at the Liebenauer, and their home European record when scoring is genuinely impressive. But Marseille are not without firepower, and their Ligue 1 form over the last two weeks shows what they are capable of when the confidence is there. Genesio will know this is a must not lose situation after two straight defeats, and his side will be set up to be hard to beat.

We are going with a 1-1 draw. Sturm Graz finally get off the mark in Europe and extend their unbeaten home run, but Marseille show enough to earn a point that at least keeps their campaign alive heading into the remaining matchdays. Not pretty, but plenty of tension from start to finish.

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