Toulouse vs Troyes Prediction, Betting Tips & Preview

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Toulouse

vs

Troyes

KickoffSaturday 24 October 2026, 4:15pm

VenueStadium de Toulouse

CompetitionFrench Ligue 1

Five straight defeats. Fifteen goals conceded across that run. Troyes are in freefall right now, and the timing of this fixture could hardly be worse for them. They travel to Toulouse on the back of a 3-1 home defeat to Lens, sitting second from the bottom of Ligue 1, and facing a side that has quietly put together a really encouraging run of results. Le Tef are buzzing at the moment, and this one sets up very nicely for the home side.

Toulouse came into this season slowly, picking up just one point from their opening three Ligue 1 fixtures. But Jens Berthel Askou has steadied the ship, and two wins from their last three matches tells a different story. A win or draw here and they extend an unbeaten league run to five games, which would actually be longer than anything they managed throughout last season. That is a real marker of progress.

Toulouse vs Troyes Match Details

This Ligue 1 matchday eight fixture takes place at the Stadium de Toulouse, where Toulouse have a strong recent record against this particular opponent. Troyes have never won a top flight match on this ground, and that unwanted statistic is unlikely to change given the respective form of both sides heading into the weekend.

Team News

There are a couple of names to keep an eye on ahead of team selection, with neither side going into this fully fit.

• Abu Francis is a doubt for Toulouse after picking up a hamstring strain. The Ghanaian has not yet returned to full training and could miss out.
• Jacen Russell-Rowe, Aron Donnum and Casper Tengstedt all scored against Le Mans last week and are expected to keep their places if fit.
• Guillaume Restes kept a clean sheet with two saves and should continue between the sticks.
• Ismael Boura is nursing a sore hip for Troyes and may not make it.
• Paolo Gozzi is also questionable after picking up a knock and faces a fitness test.
• Timothee NKada grabbed Troyes their only goal against Lens and will likely lead the line again.

Predicted Lineups

Askou looks set to name a very similar side to the one that put three past Le Mans. With Russell-Rowe, Tengstedt and Donnum all on the scoresheet last time out, there is no reason to mess with what is working. The only question is whether any late fitness concerns force his hand in the final third.

Toulouse: Restes; Messali, McKenzie, Nicolaisen, Tape; Casseres, Schmidt; Donnum, Jorgensen, Tengstedt; Russell-Rowe

For Troyes, Stephane Dumont is working with limited options and likely limited confidence in his squad right now. NKada earned his first goal of the season and keeps his spot, but this is a side low on momentum and possibly missing key bodies at the back.

Troyes: Beach; Maronnier, Monfray, Diaz, Ouzenadji; Diop, Karim; Mille, Le Douaron, NKada; Ripart

Recent Form

Toulouse are genuinely clicking in attack right now. They have scored multiple goals in each of their last four Ligue 1 outings, and their tally of 12 for the season puts them joint top among sides currently in the bottom half of the table. That is a really encouraging number when you consider how rocky the start was. The 3-0 away win at Le Mans was a statement performance, three different scorers, a clean sheet, and a real sense that this team is finding its identity under Askou.

The caveat is that at home they have been a little quieter in front of goal. They have failed to score in two of their three home league games this season, which is worth noting. But with Troyes shipping goals at an alarming rate, the pressure on their backline might just unlock the Toulouse attack in a way that has not happened on home soil yet this term.

Troyes are in genuine trouble. Five defeats on the spin, fifteen goals conceded in those five games, and a league high sixteen conceded overall. The 3-1 loss to Lens was actually one of their better defensive showings in that run, which tells you everything. They do get the ball into advanced areas fairly regularly, ranking third in Ligue 1 for possessions in the final third per game, but they cannot finish. Four games without a goal, and their only second half strike this season came in stoppage time of a 6-2 home hammering against Strasbourg.

Head-to-Head Record

The head to head record here is absolutely one sided. Toulouse are unbeaten in their last twelve meetings with Troyes across all competitions, and a win on Saturday would stretch that to thirteen. At home specifically, they have not lost any of their last eight against this opponent.

Troyes have never beaten Toulouse in a top flight match at the Stadium de Toulouse. They are being asked to do something the club has literally never managed, while simultaneously trying to arrest their worst losing run in over a decade. The odds are stacked against them in every possible direction.

Key Stats

• Troyes have conceded 16 Ligue 1 goals this season, the most in the division.
• Toulouse have scored in each of their last four league games, netting multiple goals every time.
• Troyes have gone four league games without scoring, with only one second half goal all season and that came deep in stoppage time of a 6-2 defeat.

Toulouse vs Troyes Betting Tips

The shape of this game feels fairly clear. Toulouse are in form, Troyes are leaking goals and cannot score, and the head to head record at this venue makes grim reading for the visitors. There is value in backing the home side to win comfortably, and several of the specific markets point in the same direction.

Cards Prediction

Troyes are fighting for something, anything, and a side under pressure and likely to spend large portions of the game chasing the ball tends to give away more fouls. Expect at least three or four cards across the ninety minutes, with the visitors more likely to contribute to the tally.

Corners Prediction

Toulouse will dominate possession and territory here, particularly in the second half once they get ahead. Expect a high corner count, with the home side winning the majority. Over nine or ten corners for the match looks a strong play given how one sided the territorial battle should be.

Correct Score Prediction

Toulouse 2-0 Troyes. The home side have been clinical in front of goal lately, Troyes have next to no attacking threat that actually converts, and a clean sheet looks very achievable for Restes and the back four. Two goals feels like a conservative but likely outcome.

First Goalscorer Prediction

Casper Tengstedt is the tip here. He scored against Le Mans, he is operating in a system that is creating chances, and he looks like a player full of confidence right now. Troyes have been carved open by centre forwards all season and Tengstedt has the movement and the finishing touch to exploit that.

Over and Under Goals Prediction

Under 3.5 goals feels like the safer side of this market. Toulouse will score, but their home form has been a little muted in front of goal this season. Troyes are unlikely to contribute much at the other end. A 2-0 or 2-1 outcome suggests the goals line sits comfortably under 3.5 but probably clears the over 1.5 barrier without issue.

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) Prediction

No. Troyes have drawn a blank in four of their last five league games and that lone second half goal came in the carnage of a 6-2 defeat. Toulouse have kept clean sheets at home this season and their backline should be more than capable of shutting out a Troyes attack that is all movement and no end product. BTTS No is the call.

Bet Builder Tip

All three picks point in the same direction: a controlled Toulouse win with Tengstedt doing the damage and Troyes unable to find a way through at the other end.

Final Match Prediction

Toulouse have done the hard work this season. They ground through a difficult opening run and have come out the other side with real momentum and a squad that looks comfortable in Askou’s system. The attackers are firing, the goalkeeper is making saves when needed, and they are about to face the leakiest defence in Ligue 1.

Troyes need a miracle turnaround, but there is absolutely nothing in their recent performances to suggest it is coming here. Their attack does not convert, their defence cannot hold, and they have never won at this ground in top flight football. Toulouse to win 2-0, and it could be even more comfortable than that if the home side decide to push on.

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