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Wolverhampton Wanderers
PortsmouthCan Wolves build on their morale-boosting win at Burnley and start turning Molineux into a fortress? Or does a Portsmouth side riding a wave of back-to-back victories have what it takes to extend their extraordinary unbeaten run against the hosts? This is a fixture with a genuine subplot running through it, and getting the angle right could make all the difference when it comes to picking your markets.
Wolves sit eighth in the Championship table, three points above their visitors, and with promotion still very much on the agenda. Portsmouth are not here to make up the numbers though. Momentum is a real thing in football, and Pompey have got some right now. Let us get into it.
This rescheduled Championship fixture takes place at Molineux and marks the first competitive meeting between these two clubs in sixteen years. The West Midlands ground has seen mixed fortunes for Wolves this season, and with the automatic promotion places tantalisingly close, the home side know what is at stake in front of their own supporters.
Wolves have a few notable absentees to contend with, and Cesar Peixoto will need to shuffle his options carefully heading into a game of this importance.
Portsmouth carry their own injury concerns to Molineux, with John Mousinho facing a lengthy absentee list of his own.
Peixoto looks set to name a largely settled side after the confidence of that Burnley win. With Jimenez out and Armstrong doubtful, Neve leads the line and will be backed by the creative quality of Fer Lopez, who has been one of Wolves’ standout performers this season. The back four picks itself, and the midfield pairing of Munetsi and Andre gives them that physical and technical balance.
Wolves expected lineup: Sa; Tchatchoua, Djiga, Toti, Konan; Munetsi, Andre; Mane, Lopez, Said; Neve
Portsmouth will be slightly more cautious in their selection given the injury list, and Bishop’s fitness will be the big call for Mousinho before kickoff. If he does not make it, Pompey’s attacking threat becomes noticeably more reliant on the wider areas and midfield runners arriving late. Milovanovic’s penalty winner at Norwich showed there is more than one way to find a goal though.
Portsmouth expected lineup: Schmid; Swanson, Poole, Dia, Meghoma; Adams, Pack; Kamara, Segecic, Kamara; Marezi
Wolves have been inconsistent, and that is the honest assessment. They have won just three of their last seven Championship outings, and back-to-back defeats against Middlesbrough and Bolton after the international break suggested a team that needed a lift. Friday’s 2-1 win at Turf Moor provided exactly that. Lopez pulled them level after Jamie Vardy’s opener and then substitute Tawanda Chirewa sealed it late on. A gritty road win is often more valuable than a comfortable home one in terms of what it tells you about a squad’s mentality, and Wolves showed genuine character to come from behind and take the points.
At home though, the picture is slightly different. Wolves have won two of their last three at Molineux, which sounds fine on paper, but that third result was a 3-1 thumping at the hands of Bolton. Conceding three goals at home is not a great look for a side with promotion ambitions, and Portsmouth will have taken note of that defensive vulnerability.
Portsmouth, for their part, arrive in fine fettle. After losing the local derby to Southampton, they responded with real character. A dramatic 3-2 home win over ten-man Sheffield United was followed by a disciplined 1-0 victory at Carrow Road on Saturday. Marko Milovanovic’s penalty did the job at Norwich, and it ended a run stretching back to August since Pompey last won away from home. Two consecutive wins, a first away victory in two months, and now a trip to Molineux. The timing of that form pickup is significant.
Here is where it gets really interesting. Wolves have not beaten Portsmouth in any of their last six head-to-head meetings. You have to go all the way back to January 2002 and a 3-2 away win to find the last time Wolves got the better of them. In the context of this fixture, that is a remarkable stat, and one that Pompey’s camp will be very aware of.
Portsmouth’s unbeaten run at Molineux stretches to six away games against Wolves, and while five of those ended in draws, they did win 1-0 on their last visit in October 2009. Wolves will be desperate to break that hoodoo, but head-to-head records do not just appear out of thin air. They tend to reflect something about how these two sides match up against each other, and Portsmouth have consistently found a way to avoid defeat at this ground.
The head-to-head record is a major talking point here, but context matters too. Wolves are playing this at Molineux, they are above Pompey in the table, and they are coming off a confidence-boosting away win. Portsmouth have momentum and a brilliant recent record in this fixture, but they also carry a lengthy injury list and a fragile away record before last weekend’s win at Norwich. The angle I am playing is a home win, but one that reflects how competitive this fixture tends to be.
Fer Lopez is the standout pick here. Five Championship goals already this season, including the equaliser at Burnley on Friday, and he is clearly operating with real confidence right now. He links well in the number ten area and gets into goalscoring positions regularly. At home, with Wolves needing to break down a Portsmouth side that will look to stay compact, Lopez is the man most likely to find the net first.
I am going under 2.5 goals here. Portsmouth have only conceded first and lost every time that has happened this season, which tells you they will prioritise defensive shape on the road. Wolves have kept things tight themselves at times, and the sheer number of injuries on both sides means this could be a scrappy, hard-fought affair rather than a free-flowing goalfest. A narrow scoreline feels more likely than a cricket match.
Wolves 2-1 Portsmouth. Wolves edge it, but Portsmouth make them work for it and nick a goal back as they always seem to do against this opposition. It mirrors the pattern of the Burnley win in some ways, a game that goes to the wire but ends with three points for the hosts.
Over 9.5 corners looks attractive. Wolves will be pressing forward looking to make the most of home advantage, and Portsmouth when defending deep will invite plenty of crosses and cutbacks. Wolves earned a healthy tally of corners at Burnley, and against a side that parks the back four you tend to see the ball shuttled wide repeatedly. Expect the corner count to tick up nicely over the course of this one.
| Market | Selection |
|---|---|
| First Goalscorer | Fer Lopez |
| Under 2.5 Goals | Under 2.5 |
| Over 9.5 Corners | Over 9.5 |
Lopez to strike first in a tight game where corners pile up as Wolves push for the winner sums up exactly how I see this one unfolding at Molineux.
Wolves to win 2-1. The head-to-head record is impossible to ignore, but so is the fact that Wolves are at home, above Pompey in the table, and freshly energised by that gutsy win at Burnley. Portsmouth will give them plenty of problems, they always seem to, and the opening goal will be critical given how Pompey’s season has unfolded when going behind. Expect a competitive game that Wolves edge through quality and home advantage.
A win here would put Wolves within two points of the automatic promotion spots. The timing is right, Molineux will be buzzing, and Lopez looks like a man in form. Back the home side to get it done, but do not expect it to be pretty.