Bookies Shorten Odds on Starmer’s Exit

It has become increasingly tempting to pose the question: is the UK Prime Minister’s tenure under serious threat? After a landslide victory in the 2024 general election for Labour, recent turbulence suggests that the once-steady ascendency of Prime Minister Keir Starmer is facing a harsh political reality. 

Bookie Odds On Prime Minister Exit Date

According to the latest market on “Kier Starmer’s Exit Date” provided by a group of UK bookies the standout information is as follows with anytime this year quoted at 16/1 – Others are as follows:

• 2026: 6/5 with William Hill 
• 2027: 4/1 with BetFred 
• 2028: 11/2 with William Hill  
• 2029 or later: 7/2 Ladbrokes 

To put it plainly: these odds show that Starmer is not expected to fall this year, however, the risk of his exit from 2026 is predicted as quite a likely outcome. This shows us that his position is definitely threatened, even if “toast” is a bit dramatic. 

The context: turbulence at home 

Why are the odds shifting this direction? There are several reasons for this move. 

Firstly, according to a recent polling survey by YouGov, Starmer’s favourability is at just 21%, with an unfavourability rating of 73% (giving him a net rating of 51), this is reportedly the worst of his political career thus far. The reasons for this unpopularity among the British public stem from several different events, such as the significant resistance Starmer has faced from within his own party. In the passing of a major welfare bill, Labour relied on large numbers of rebel MPs to pass the bill and only managed to after significantly diluting its plans. Additionally, the situation worsened with the resignation of former Deputy Prime Minister Angela Rayner just a couple of months ago following her breach of the ministerial code in relation to failing to pay the proper amount of tax on a new property in Hove. This controversy has definitely added to a sense of political instability within Starmer’s Labour Party. 

Secondly, Starmer’s actions on the international stage add an interesting dimension to his political situation at home. Commentators have applauded his actions in global diplomacy, strengthening British foreign relationships while acting in favor of morally correct actions. Yet, it has been argued that he often appears more comfortable on the global stage than the domestic. He has been criticised for a more vague stance on domestic policies, for instance the proposed introduction of a digital “Brit Card” scheme as the communication surrounding its introduction has been unclear. This is compounded by the recent national security blunder involving China. The collapse of a very high-profile espionage case involving China has put Starmer’s government under increased fire, with critics saying he has shown innate weakness and has failed to deal with the security threat effectively. This has placed Starmer at the centre of further scrutiny from political opponents in Parliament as well as from critics generally. These blemishes continue to negatively impact Starmer’s position as Prime Minister, significantly increasing the vulnerability of his position. 

What this means for Starmer’s future

Putting the odds and the context of his situation together, we find ourselves with a nuanced but concerning picture. On one hand, the odds suggest that Starmer has at least until 2026 before serious speculation about his departure becomes mainstream. On the other hand, 5/4 odds for his departure in 2026 suggests that the market sees his position as being sufficiently precarious that a resignation or forced exit may be a likely possibility in the medium term. 

So in short: he is not “toast” yet, but the bread is definitely beginning to burn around the edges. 

Key things to watch in the coming months

• By-election results: losses in what were safe Labour seats will magnify the pressure
• Cabinet stability and reshuffle: if more senior ministers jump ship it would be a terrible sign for Starmer’s position
• Policy delivery: Starmer’s promise to rebuild Britain will need tangible wins to prevent voters from turning to alternatives. 
• Movements in the odds 

Final Verdict 

So is Keir Starmer toast? Not yet- but his position is by no means completely secure. The exit odds clearly demonstrate that the smart money is not on a quick fall, but they are increasingly aware that his departure is likely in the next couple of years unless something changes. Ultimately though, for a leader who has been in office for barely a year, that is hardly a sign of strength.