Alaves vs Valencia Prediction, Betting Tips & Preview

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Alaves

vs

Valencia

KickoffSaturday 2 September 2023, 5:30pm

VenueEstadio de Mendizorroza

CompetitionSpanish La Liga

Five games in and Valencia have scored exactly once in La Liga. One goal. From five matches. That is not a blip, that is a crisis, and it is the kind of statistic that tells you almost everything you need to know heading into this fixture. Meanwhile, Alaves have started the season looking like a completely different animal to the side that spent most of last term scrapping for survival. Three wins from three at home, a 5-2 hammering of Osasuna among them, and a spot in the top four. The contrast between these two clubs right now could hardly be more stark.

Valencia sacked Carlos Corberan after a 1-0 defeat at Sevilla made it four losses from five, and now they head to the Basque Country with an interim manager in the dugout, five senior players unavailable, and a goalscoring record that would make a Sunday league side wince. Alaves, for their part, are flying. This has the makings of a very difficult Tuesday night for Los Che.

Alaves vs Valencia Match Details

This La Liga fixture takes place at Mendizorroza, the compact and atmospheric home of Deportivo Alaves in Vitoria. Alaves go into this one as one of only four clubs in the division with a perfect home record, sitting in third place and full of confidence after a strong start to their first full season under Quique Sanchez Flores.

Team News

Alaves have a couple of notable absentees to manage, while Valencia are dealing with an injury list long enough to give their interim boss a serious headache before he has even had a full week in the job.

• Facundo Garces and Mikel Rodriguez are both out for Alaves with anterior cruciate ligament injuries picked up earlier this month.
• Striker Aitor Manas is ruled out for at least two matches after being stretchered off with a head injury, now in concussion protocols.
• Luis Rioja returns from injury for Alaves and is available for selection.
• Guido Rodriguez is a doubt and will need to prove his fitness before the match.
• Valencia are without Mouctar Diakhaby, Jose Manuel Copete, Dimitri Foulquier, Diego Lopez and Umar Sadiq through injury.
• Cesar Tarrega is being assessed after being forced off at half time against Sevilla with a hamstring injury.
• Interim boss Oscar Sanchez is expected to make changes, with Carles Alena and Toni Martinez both pushing for starting places.

Predicted Lineups

Quique Sanchez Flores has a fairly settled side and despite losing Manas and having Garces and Rodriguez unavailable, the overall shape should remain recognisable. Alena has been brought into the mix and could add some creative quality in what looks like an attacking minded setup designed to press and dominate at Mendizorroza. Ville Koski, who scored against Racing Santander at the weekend, keeps his place in central defence.

For Valencia, Oscar Sanchez is in the unenviable position of picking a squad that is threadbare and low on confidence. With Tarrega a doubt and five others definitely out, the defensive unit looks cobbled together. In attack, the options are limited, and with just one league goal all season, the margin for tactical creativity is thin. Both sides are expected to line up in a 4-3-3 shape, though Valencia may well end up sitting in and trying to stay organised rather than committing men forward.

• Alaves: Sivera; Tenaglia, Koski, Otto; Perez, Ibanez, Blanco, Alena, Rebbach; Boye, Martinez
• Valencia: Dimitrievski; Maffeo, Cordoba, De Haas, Vazquez; Dieng, Pepelu; Otorbi, Elliott, Sato; Duro

Recent Form

Alaves have been one of the stories of the early La Liga season. Sanchez Flores spent last year keeping them up and now here they are, starting a new campaign with four points from their first two games before hammering Villarreal and then putting five past Osasuna. That 5-2 result was not a fluke either. Alaves have looked sharp, well organised and capable of hurting teams on the counter as well as through sustained pressure. The only blemish was Saturday’s 2-1 defeat at Racing Santander, where they led through Koski before losing their grip on the game. That is a setback, not a warning sign.

Valencia, by contrast, are in freefall. A goalless draw against Celta Vigo on the opening day offered a hint of solidity, but since then it has been four defeats in a row and a total of one league goal. The loss at Sevilla was the final straw for Corberan, with the club also parting ways with chief executive Ron Gourlay at the same time. Braulio Vazquez has come back as sporting director and the search for a new head coach is underway, but in the meantime, Oscar Sanchez steps up from the B team. Managing the transition is complicated enough at the best of times, and doing it with a depleted squad against a side sitting third in La Liga is about as tough an introduction as you can imagine.

The numbers really do not lie here. Two points from five games, one goal scored, two members of the senior leadership structure out the door. Valencia are not just struggling for form, they are struggling to function as a football club right now, and that kind of instability tends to show on the pitch.

Head-to-Head Record

The recent head to head record at Mendizorroza tells a very clear story for anyone thinking about backing Valencia to nick something here. Alaves have gone seven home games against Valencia without losing, winning four of those and drawing three. Crucially, the last three meetings at this ground have ended with clean sheets for the hosts. Valencia have not won here since a 2-1 victory back in October 2017, which means they have been coming to Vitoria and walking away empty handed for the best part of nine years.

That kind of venue record carries real weight, particularly when the team chasing a first win here in so long is also sitting bottom of the table, without a permanent manager, and unable to call upon half a dozen first team players. History is firmly stacked against Valencia making that long awaited return to winning ways at Mendizorroza.

Key Stats

• Valencia have scored just one goal in five La Liga games this season.
• Alaves have won all three of their home games in La Liga so far, scoring 10 goals in the process.
• Alaves are unbeaten in their last seven home matches against Valencia, keeping clean sheets in each of the last three at Mendizorroza.
• Valencia have not won at Mendizorroza since October 2017.

Alaves vs Valencia Betting Tips

This is about as lopsided a fixture as you will find in La Liga right now. Alaves are in form, at home, and have a recent record against this particular opponent that borders on dominant. Valencia are at their lowest point in years, heading here with an interim boss, a ravaged injury list and a goalscoring record that makes backing them to find the net feel like a genuine gamble. The angle here is firmly with the hosts, and the question is less about whether Alaves win and more about the manner in which they do it.

Correct Score Prediction

Given how toothless Valencia have been and how strong Alaves look at home, a comfortable home win feels right. A 2-0 scoreline fits the pattern of recent meetings at this ground, where clean sheets have become almost routine for the hosts, and it also reflects the reality that Valencia may park the bus and make it hard to put big numbers on the board even if Alaves are the better side.

Over and Under Goals Prediction

Under 2.5 goals deserves serious consideration here. Valencia’s attacking output this season has been almost non existent, and Alaves have shown they can defend well at home. Three of the last three meetings at Mendizorroza ended without Valencia scoring at all. A tight, controlled Alaves win with a couple of goals at most feels like the most likely outcome, which puts the under firmly in play.

First Goalscorer Prediction

Toni Martinez is the man to back here. The striker is pushing for a starting berth under the new interim setup at Alaves and with Aitor Manas out of the picture, there is room for Martinez to lead the line. He has the movement and the penalty box instinct to trouble a Valencia defensive unit that is already short of bodies and low on confidence. He looks a solid shout to open the scoring.

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) Prediction

No is the call here. Valencia have scored in just one of their five league games this season and have faced clean sheets in each of the last three visits to Mendizorroza. With an interim boss making changes, injuries throughout the squad and Alaves in good defensive shape at home, there is very little to suggest Valencia will find a way through. BTTS No looks like a well grounded selection.

Corners Prediction

Over on corners feels right. Alaves will likely dominate possession and territory at home and will be looking to get balls into the box against a makeshift Valencia backline. Valencia may also be forced to defend deep and hit on the break, inviting further pressure. A game with Alaves pushing forward consistently should generate a healthy corner count, and over 9.5 corners in the match is worth a look.

Cards Prediction

With Valencia under pressure, bodies missing and an interim boss trying to impose some shape on a disorganised group, the away side are likely to give away their share of fouls. A frustrated Valencia side, chasing the game if they concede early, could pick up cards as the match wears on. Over 3.5 cards in total is a reasonable expectation given the likely dynamic of this one.

Bet Builder Tip

An Alaves win with a clean sheet is well supported by the recent record at Mendizorroza, and Martinez is the most likely man to break the deadlock in a game where the hosts should control proceedings from early on.

Final Match Prediction

Alaves to win 2-0 is the call. Quique Sanchez Flores has built something genuinely solid here and the home record speaks for itself. Valencia are in crisis, short of players, short of goals and short of confidence, and they are walking into a ground where they have not taken three points since 2017. Oscar Sanchez might get a reaction from his squad in the short term, and there could be a little more purpose to Valencia’s play without the weight of Corberan’s methods, but the gulf in quality and momentum between these two clubs right now is simply too wide.

Alaves should get the job done without too much fuss. A clean sheet at home against a Valencia side that has scored one league goal all season is far from a stretch, and the hosts have the quality up front to find the net without needing to be at their very best. Take Alaves to win, Valencia not to score, and enjoy what should be a comfortable Tuesday night for the hosts in Vitoria.

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