Genoa vs Sudtirol Prediction, Betting Tips & Preview

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Genoa

vs

Sudtirol

KickoffTuesday 15 September 2026, 5:00pm

VenueStadio Luigi Ferraris

CompetitionCoppa Italia

Can a struggling Serie A side hold off a confident and well organised lower league outfit in a cup tie that genuinely matters? That is the question hanging over Stadio Ferraris as Genoa welcome Sudtirol to Genova in the second round of the Coppa Italia. The winner gets Inter Milan in the last 16. For Genoa, that is a glamour tie worth fighting for. For Sudtirol, it would be the stuff of fairytales. So which way does this one go?

Genoa are winless in Serie A and leaking goals at an alarming rate. Sudtirol are punching above their weight in Serie B and brimming with belief after a strong start to the season. On paper it should be comfortable for the top flight side. On the evidence of recent weeks, nothing about Genoa looks comfortable at all.

Genoa vs Sudtirol Match Details

The match takes place at Stadio Luigi Ferraris in Genova, the famous old ground that Genoa share with Sampdoria. This is a Coppa Italia second round fixture, with the prize on offer being a last 16 clash away at Inter Milan, the reigning Serie A champions. For Genoa, familiar ground and a home crowd. For Sudtirol, a 5,000 capacity club from the Tyrolean north walking into one of Italian football’s most atmospheric arenas.

Team News

Genoa have a couple of confirmed absentees and a captain who is walking a tightrope after his red card at the weekend. Daniele De Rossi is expected to rotate significantly given the fixture congestion, which means several fringe players and summer arrivals could finally get their first real run out in the starting eleven.

• Elias Havel is out for Genoa
• Lorenzo Venturino is also confirmed absent
• Johan Vasquez served his red card against Frosinone but the timing of any suspension and whether it carries into cup football will influence selection
• Lorenzo Colombo may be rested after his penalty miss on Saturday
• Summer signings Cody Drameh and Hamed Traore are pushing for their first starts
• Hamza El Kaouakibi misses out for Sudtirol
• Kenny Mixtur, who scored the late goal to force penalties in round one, is pushing for a starting berth
• Alvin Okoro and Rares Burnete are competing to lead the Sudtirol attack

Predicted Lineups

For Genoa, De Rossi looks set to use this game as an opportunity to give his squad depth a run out. With Colombo potentially rested and the likes of Drameh and Traore finally getting their chance, the starting eleven could look quite different to the one that scraped a draw against Frosinone. Stephane El Shaarawy is likely to bring some top flight quality in the attacking third even with rotation elsewhere.

Sudtirol boss Davide Possanzini is expected to name a strong side. He will not see this as a dead rubber. His team have momentum and belief, and a trip to San Siro is more than enough motivation to pick your strongest available eleven. Kevin Zeroli, the AC Milan loanee, should anchor midfield, with Burnete leading the line ahead of Mixtur and Vasic.

• Genoa: Stolz; Otoa, Marcandalli, Vasquez; Drameh, Amorim, Meichtry, Mitaj; Traore, El Shaarawy; Vitinha
• Sudtirol: Plizzari; Stivanello, Giorgini, Veroli; Molina, Rispoli, Tait, Bjarkason; Zeroli, Vasic; Burnete

Recent Form

Genoa’s form right now is alarming. Four Serie A games in, they are still without a win, and the defensive numbers are genuinely troubling. Seven goals conceded across the first three league outings before Saturday’s game with Frosinone, and then they allowed the newly promoted side 26 attempts on their goal in that match too. Yes, Vasquez grabbed a second half equaliser to earn a point, but a team letting in that volume of shots is not a team with a settled defensive structure. De Rossi is under real pressure, and everyone in Italian football knows it.

The Coppa Italia has provided some brief relief. A 4-1 first round win over Ascoli, scoring twice in each half at the Ferraris, showed there is attacking quality in this squad when things click. But the question is whether a rotated lineup can replicate that kind of performance against a Sudtirol side that will be well organised and genuinely up for this.

Sudtirol, on the other hand, are in a completely different frame of mind. Eight points from a possible 12 in Serie B under new boss Possanzini is a superb start. They also came through their Coppa Italia first round tie against Catanzaro. The only real disappointment came at the weekend when Modena equalised in the 88th minute to deny them top spot in the division. Okoro had given them the lead and they looked in control. Conceding so late will sting, but the overall shape of their campaign so far is genuinely impressive. A side playing De Zerbi inspired football, with a head coach who spent seven years working alongside the Tottenham manager, they are not going to come to Genova to sit in and survive.

Head-to-Head Record

This is not a fixture with a long and storied history. Genoa and Sudtirol have met rarely, and there is no substantial head to head record to pull apart in meaningful detail. Sudtirol’s rise through the Italian football pyramid is relatively recent, and their four consecutive seasons in Serie B represent uncharted territory for a club that plays in a stadium holding around 5,000 people.

What we can say is that on the road in cup football, well organised lower league sides can cause problems for top flight opposition, particularly when that top flight opposition is low on confidence and rotating heavily. History does not tell us much here. The form guide tells us rather more.

Key Stats

• Genoa have conceded seven goals in their first three Serie A games this season, a rate that points to serious defensive vulnerability
• Sudtirol have taken eight points from their opening four Serie B matches under Possanzini, the kind of start that breeds confidence at every level of the club
• Genoa have exited the Coppa Italia at the last 16 stage in nine of the last 11 seasons, including a 4-0 thrashing by Atalanta in the most recent edition, so getting there in the first place is not a foregone conclusion

Genoa vs Sudtirol Betting Tips

The temptation is to back the Serie A side and move on, but the context here makes this a trickier proposition than the league difference suggests. Genoa are rotating, low on confidence and leaking goals. Sudtirol are organised, well coached and playing with genuine momentum. There is real value in looking beyond the straightforward home win market for this one.

Over and Under Goals Prediction

Genoa’s backline has been shipping goals all season and Sudtirol are not a side that sits back. With a rotated Genoa defence and a Sudtirol attack that already has goals at this level, there is a decent case for goals at both ends. I am leaning towards over 2.5 goals in this one.

Cards Prediction

Cup ties between sides from different divisions can get feisty, particularly when the lower league team is pressing hard and the top flight side is not at full strength. Sudtirol press with energy under Possanzini, and a Genoa midfield including some less experienced starters could find the tempo difficult to manage. I would expect at least two cards across the ninety minutes, making over 1.5 cards a reasonable line to back.

Correct Score Prediction

If Genoa do edge through, I think it is tight. A 2-1 home win feels right given the defensive issues on both sides and the attacking intent Sudtirol will bring. Genoa have enough quality in Vitinha and El Shaarawy to find the net, but they will not keep a clean sheet against this Sudtirol side.

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) Prediction

Yes, both teams to score. Genoa have been conceding for fun and Sudtirol have shown they can find the net against good opposition. Okoro got one at the weekend before the late equaliser, and Burnete is a handful at this level. With a Genoa back four that is still finding its feet, Sudtirol will create chances and I expect them to take at least one.

First Goalscorer Prediction

Stephan El Shaarawy is the pick here. The former Roma and AC Milan winger brings genuine top flight pedigree to a Genoa attack that needs someone to take responsibility in the final third. Starting centrally or just off the striker, he has the movement and the technique to exploit whatever space Sudtirol leave, and in a cup tie where Genoa will look to make an early impression, El Shaarawy feels like the most dangerous player in the Grifone attack.

Bet Builder Tip

A leaky Genoa defence, an attacking Sudtirol side and El Shaarawy as the likeliest man to break the deadlock makes this a tidy combination that all points in the same direction.

Final Match Prediction

Genoa should get through this, but it will not be the straightforward evening some might expect. Sudtirol are not here to make up the numbers. They are well organised, playing good football and coming off the back of a season that has genuinely exceeded expectations. A rotated Genoa side will be tested, particularly in a defensive shape that has looked shaky all season.

De Rossi will be desperate for a win of any kind to ease the pressure, and home advantage at the Ferraris should just about tip it his way. But do not be surprised if Sudtirol make this uncomfortable right until the end. Genoa to win 2-1, with goals at both ends and a nervy final quarter of an hour for the home supporters.

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