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Bologna
TorinoBologna are in a bit of a mess right now, and everyone connected with the club knows it. Four games into the new Serie A season and they have got just a single point on the board, a managerial casualty already to their name, and a home record over the past year or so that makes grim reading. Raffaele Palladino has walked through the door at Stadio Dall’Ara with a three year contract and an immediate job on his hands. The former Atalanta boss inherits a squad that has been firing shots without scoring goals, and a fanbase that is running low on patience.
Torino arrive in Emilia not exactly dripping with confidence either. Ignazio Abate’s side have lost three of their first four league games, suffered a Coppa Italia embarrassment against Monza, and just got turned over 2-0 by Roma on their own patch. This is two clubs in early season difficulty, two new managers feeling the heat, and a fixture where something has to give. Or maybe nothing does. That might just be the most likely outcome of all.
The game takes place at Stadio Dall’Ara in Bologna, with both clubs looking to pick up their first proper bit of positive momentum in Serie A this season. Palladino gets his first taste of competitive management with his new club in front of a home crowd that will be desperate to see some signs of life, while Abate needs a result badly enough that a point on the road might actually feel like a win for Torino at this stage.
Palladino has a couple of interesting selection calls to make on his first matchday in charge, with some players returning from injury but others still unavailable.
Palladino generally favours a back three, but this being his first game in charge and with an international break coming up immediately afterwards, he may choose not to overhaul the system straight away. Expect something relatively familiar in terms of shape while he gets his feet under the table. Skorupski looks likely to return between the sticks, and the wide areas will need covering with Orsolini still out.
Bologna predicted lineup: Skorupski; Holm, Heggem, Theate, Miranda; Ferguson, Pobega; Bernardeschi, Odgaard, Cambiaghi; Piccoli
Torino are likely to set up with Simeone as the lone striker, a player who has history against this opponent even if his recent form has been short of goals. Casadei comes back into contention and could add some energy in the middle of the park.
Torino predicted lineup: Perri; Comuzzo, Coco, Comert; Belghali, Fitz-Jim, Mandragora, Gineitis, Cacciamani; Vlasic; Simeone
Bologna’s numbers this season are alarming when you look past the surface. One point from four games is their worst start since 2018, and the solitary goal they scored that actually mattered came from Dovbyk in the dying moments of a 2-2 draw with Sassuolo. That is the only time they have found the net across all competitions this term. They have racked up 56 shots in the league alone, which tells you there is some attacking intent there, but the conversion rate is woeful and the confidence in front of goal looks shot. Tedesco paid the price and Palladino now has to fix it quickly.
Torino’s form is not much better. Defeats to AC Milan and Sassuolo, that Coppa Italia exit to Monza, and now a 2-0 home loss to Roma have left Abate under genuine scrutiny. The one bright spot was a 2-1 win at Fiorentina, which briefly gave the impression things might be turning around. The Roma result wiped that goodwill out pretty quickly. Conceding at the end of each half against the Giallorossi was sloppy, and losing Adams to injury is another headache Abate could have done without. Toro have found the net a grand total of four times in their last five competitive games, and their threat in and around the opposition box has been minimal their Serie A stats this season.
Neither side is carrying anything like momentum into this one. The difference is that Bologna are at home and have a new manager bounce potentially working in their favour, while Torino are a club that historically struggles badly at Dall’Ara.
The head to head record is a significant factor here and it firmly favours the hosts. Bologna are unbeaten in their last 10 top flight home fixtures against Torino, which is the kind of run that weighs on visiting sides before they have even set foot on the pitch. Torino’s last win over Bologna came back in March 2023, and since that day they have managed just three goals across all encounters with this opponent. That is a telling number for a side that already looks short of cutting edge in front of goal.
The recent history between these two suggests tight, low scoring affairs. Given that both teams are struggling to find the net this season, there is no particular reason to expect a goal fest here, and the pattern of results reinforces that view.
This is a fixture where the numbers point in one direction pretty clearly. Two teams with poor attacking output, a historically tight head to head, a new manager looking to steady the ship rather than swing for the fences, and a Torino side missing their most dangerous forward. The value in this game is in low scoring markets, and I would be very surprised to see this one open up.
Under 2.5 goals looks the standout call here. Bologna have barely scored all season despite creating chances, Torino are the team with the fewest box touches in the division, and new manager bounces at this level tend to produce organised and cautious performances rather than free flowing football. Under 2.5 goals.
Given Torino’s toothless displays in front of goal this season and the absence of Adams, I am not convinced they have enough to get on the scoresheet here. Bologna’s defence has been shaky but Torino’s attack has been even shakier. BTTS No looks the sensible call, even if neither side will be creating clear cut chances at will.
With two sides under pressure and a new manager trying to impose some discipline and organisation, expect a competitive and at times fractious game. Neither squad is particularly reckless but the pressure on both camps and the nature of a mid table Serie A scrap tends to produce a steady flow of bookings. Over 3.5 cards is worth a look if the price is right, with midfield battles likely to be fierce.
Everything points to a tight and low scoring affair. Palladino will want a clean sheet on his debut, Torino lack the firepower to unlock a bolstered backline, and the head to head history backs up the idea of a hard fought draw. A 1-1 scoreline feels like a reasonable outcome that both managers might reluctantly accept.
| Market | Selection |
|---|---|
| Total Goals | Under 2.5 Goals |
| Both Teams To Score | No |
| Correct Score | 1-0 Bologna |
All three picks point to the same conclusion: a tight, controlled game with minimal goals where Bologna edge it thanks to home advantage and the new manager effect under Palladino.
There is a school of thought that says new managers always get a reaction, and Palladino is an experienced enough operator to organise Bologna defensively and give them something to hold onto. With Torino struggling to create chances and missing Adams up front, and with Simeone yet to score in six league games, I fancy the hosts to nick this one without necessarily playing brilliantly.
The Dall’Ara crowd will be desperate for something to celebrate, and a 1-0 home win feels like the most plausible positive outcome. Palladino gets off to a winning start, Torino continue to struggle for goals, and the head to head record extends further in Bologna’s favour. Predicted score: Bologna 1-0 Torino.