Burnley vs Derby County Prediction, Betting Tips & Preview

Featured Offer

bet365

Bet £10 Get £30 in Free Bets

Claim Offer →

Min deposit requirement. Free Bets are paid as Bet Credits and are available for use upon settlement of qualifying bets. Min odds, bet and payment method exclusions apply. Returns exclude Bet Credits stake. Registration required. Time limits and T&Cs apply. GambleAware.org #ad

Burnley

vs

Derby County

KickoffSaturday 19 September 2026, 3:00pm

VenueTurf Moor

CompetitionEnglish League Championship

Eight games without a win. Sixteen goals conceded. Not a single clean sheet since a League Cup trip to Bradford City back in August. For a club that was playing Premier League football just a few months ago, the numbers around Burnley right now make for grim reading. And yet here they are, hosting a Derby County side that has won just once in the Championship this season and has not beaten the Clarets in 15 competitive attempts. Something has to give at Turf Moor this weekend, and the smart money says it will not be Burnley who blink first.

Both of these sides are struggling badly in the second tier, both are desperate for points, and both will be heading into the extended international break either with a bit of confidence restored or with serious questions to answer about where this season is heading. For Burnley in particular, the pressure is real. Cardiff City are the only other side in the Championship without a league win, and the Clarets simply cannot afford to keep company like that for much longer.

Burnley vs Derby County Match Details

This Championship fixture takes place at Turf Moor in Burnley, Lancashire, with both sides heading into the game among the early season strugglers in the second tier. It is a fixture that carries significant weight in the context of the relegation picture, with neither team having established any kind of foothold in the division so far this campaign.

Team News

Nicky Hayen has a handful of defensive headaches to deal with going into this one, which is the last thing you need when your backline has already shipped 16 goals in seven league outings.

• Bashir Humphreys is out with a muscular injury. He was a key figure in the promotion winning campaign and his absence has been felt.
• Jordan Beyer is also sidelined with a hamstring strain, further thinning the options at the back.
• Ashley Barnes has not been seen since the final day of last season and looks unlikely to feature here.
• New signing Jamie Vardy is available and expected to lead the line after joining on a free transfer.

Derby County arrive in worse shape, with an injury list that has genuinely derailed their season before it has really got going.

• Matthew Clarke and Derry Murkin are both out, leaving the Rams thin at centre back and full back respectively.
• First choice goalkeeper Jacob Zetterstrom is facing around two months on the sidelines with a knee injury.
• Rhian Brewster suffered concussion in the loss at West Ham and will not be involved.
• Patrick Agyemang, Derby’s most potent attacking threat, remains injured and his absence has been massive.

Predicted Lineups

Hayen looks set to line up with the 4141 shape that has become his default, with Kyle Walker anchoring a back four that will need to be far more organised than it has been in recent weeks. Largie Ramazani scored on his last outing at Swansea and will look to build on that from the left, while Jamie Vardy makes what could be a statement start up front for the Clarets.

Burnley: Weib; Sonne, Walker, Julio, Roberts; Hatate; Alleyne, Amdouni, Laurent, Ramazani; Vardy

Derby will be without Zetterstrom in goal, meaning Vickers deputises between the sticks. Paul Warne has enough creativity in the middle third with Clark, Szmodics and Fuseini, but without Agyemang leading the line, the Rams look blunt up top. Liam Morrison carries the goalscoring burden in his absence.

Derby: Vickers; Ward, Langas, Cashin, Taylor; Clark, Ozoh, Fuseini, Szmodics, Fraulo; Morris

Recent Form

Burnley’s form chart is a mess, and there is no way to dress it up. Three draws and five defeats across their opening eight games in all competitions, with that 3-1 defeat at Swansea City last weekend the latest chapter in a sorry story. Ramazani’s goal gave the scoreline a slightly more respectable look, but Nicky Hayen was clear afterwards that individual errors had cost his side dearly. When you have a squad containing a six time Premier League winner in Kyle Walker and you are still conceding goals at the rate Burnley are, something has gone fundamentally wrong at the back.

The arrival of Jamie Vardy is interesting. He is not the player he was at his peak, and nobody is pretending otherwise, but he knows how to lead a Championship attack and he gives Burnley something different up front. Whether he can be the catalyst that finally gets this side over the line remains to be seen, but the timing of his signing suggests the club knows things need to change quickly.

Derby are not in a dramatically better place. Three straight Championship defeats have left them 22nd in the table, and the defeat to Birmingham last Saturday was particularly disheartening. Bobby Clark had put them ahead and they were in a decent position, only for the Blues to come back and win it with two headed goals. The Rams’ only league win came at Portsmouth on September 1, a result that briefly felt like a turning point. Instead, three losses have followed. Without Agyemang, they have scored just six goals in seven league games, the lowest tally in the division.

Head-to-Head Record

The head to head record here is strikingly one sided in Burnley’s favour over the long haul, and that is before you factor in the recent run. Derby have not beaten the Clarets in 15 competitive matches, picking up five draws and losing ten. The last time the Rams came away victorious in this fixture was January 2007, when a single Steve Howard goal did the damage. That is nearly two decades of hurt for Derby supporters when it comes to facing Burnley.

For Burnley, though, the home form this season has been rotten regardless of the opposition, and they have not won a league game at Turf Moor since October 2025. So while the historical record points heavily toward the Clarets, the current context makes this feel far less straightforward than that head to head suggests.

Key Stats

• Burnley have conceded 16 Championship goals this season, the highest total in the division.
• Derby have scored just six league goals in seven games, the lowest return in the Championship.
• The Rams have not beaten Burnley in 15 competitive meetings, a run stretching back to January 2007.

Burnley vs Derby County Betting Tips

Two underperforming sides, a Turf Moor crowd that is running out of patience, and a Derby team missing their goalkeeper and their best striker. The angle here is pretty clear: back Burnley to finally get that first win, but do not expect it to be a clean or comfortable afternoon. Goals at both ends feel likely given how open both defences have been, and the corners market looks interesting given how both teams tend to chase the game.

Correct Score Prediction

Burnley 2-1 Derby County. The Clarets have the home advantage and the superior squad even in their current form, and Derby’s attacking limitations without Agyemang mean they are unlikely to cause too much damage. But Burnley giving up a goal is almost a given at this point, so a narrow home win with both sides scoring feels right.

Over and Under Goals Prediction

Over 2.5 goals. Burnley have been leaking at one end all season and Derby, while not prolific, have enough creativity in midfield to create chances. Add in Burnley’s desperation to score and you have a game that should produce at least three goals across 90 minutes.

Cards Prediction

Over 3.5 cards. This is a scrappy, pressurised fixture between two sides who are anxious and out of form. Those kinds of games tend to produce niggly fouls and short tempers, particularly around the midfield battle. Both teams have players who will be frustrated quickly if things do not go their way.

Corners Prediction

Over 9.5 corners. Burnley will be pushing hard for goals and Derby will likely sit deep at times to absorb pressure. That combination tends to produce a high corner count, and with both teams likely to be chasing the game at various points, the delivery into the box should come regularly from both ends.

Bet Builder Tip

A home win with both teams scoring covers the most likely outcome while accounting for Burnley’s defensive fragility, and the corners selection adds further value in a game where the Clarets will be pushing relentlessly for a result in front of their own fans.

Final Match Prediction

Burnley 2-1 Derby County. The Clarets simply have to win this one and they are facing a Derby side that is short of confidence, short of goals and missing several key players. The form guide for both clubs is grim, but the head to head record, the home crowd and the quality differential on paper all point toward a Burnley victory.

It will not be pretty and it might not come without a scare, but Nicky Hayen’s side should have enough to get over the line and head into the international break with their first three points of the season in the bag. After the summer they have had and the start they have endured, even a slightly unconvincing win would feel like something to build on.

Featured Offer

bet365

Bet £10 Get £30 in Free Bets

Claim Offer →

Min deposit requirement. Free Bets are paid as Bet Credits and are available for use upon settlement of qualifying bets. Min odds, bet and payment method exclusions apply. Returns exclude Bet Credits stake. Registration required. Time limits and T&Cs apply. GambleAware.org #ad