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Gillingham
Cambridge UnitedGillingham have turned their season around in remarkable fashion. After opening the campaign with back to back 3-0 thrashings, Gareth Ainsworth has steadied the ship so completely that the Gills are now riding a three game winning streak and have just kept consecutive clean sheets for the first time this season. That kind of momentum is hard to manufacture, and it makes this EFL Trophy tie a genuinely interesting prospect rather than a dead rubber.
Cambridge United arrive in Kent sitting fifth in League One and unbeaten in four, so there is real quality on show from both camps here. Neil Harris has his side pushing hard for a second successive promotion, and they have already scalped Bradford and Reading in recent weeks. But they cannot keep a clean sheet to save their lives, and nine games into the season that is a problem that keeps rearing its head.
This fixture takes place at Priestfield Stadium in Gillingham, with both clubs meeting in Southern Group G of the EFL Trophy. It is a cross division clash pitting a League Two side with serious promotion ambitions against a League One outfit who are beginning to look very comfortable at the higher level. The competition gives both managers a chance to rotate and blood squad players, though the incentive of EFL Trophy progress means neither side will be treating this as entirely throwaway.
Gillingham look relatively settled after their strong run of form, with Ainsworth likely to make changes but still name a recognisable side. Cambridge have a few more headaches to deal with in the full back areas in particular.
Ainsworth is expected to name a back three of Andy Smith, Omar Beckles and Logan Dobbs, with Robbie McKenzie and Michael Luxton anchoring the midfield. Nick Freeman and James Brophy should operate as wing backs, and the forward line of Lamin Sillah leading the attack with Ronan Hale and Harry Waldock in support looks likely to stay intact given how well it has clicked recently.
Harris faces a reshuffle at the back due to the full back crisis. Owen Moxon looks set to slot in at right back despite being a midfielder by trade, while Zak Bradshaw takes the left. Cathal Heffernan and Kell Watts should hold firm in central defence, with Dominic Ball and Pelly Ruddock Mpanzu forming the double pivot in front of them. Isaac Heath, Glenn McConnell and Ben Knight are expected behind the striker, with Gassan Ahadme leading the line.
The Gillingham transformation has been something to watch. Those opening two 3-0 defeats, against Luton in the EFL Cup and Walsall in the league, looked like they might set the tone for another difficult season. Instead, the Gills dug in through a run of draws before finding their stride completely. The 4-1 demolition of Rochdale in early September was a statement, and the 3-0 win over Bristol Rovers last time out was even more convincing. James Brophy got the opener before 18-year-old Millwall loanee Sheldon Kendall bagged a brace. A teenager on loan putting in a performance like that tells you the confidence in the squad is real right now.
Cambridge have had a more uneven ride as they settle into League One life. Two wins, a draw and two defeats from their first five competitive matches is the kind of mixed bag you expect from a newly promoted side finding their feet. But they have clearly clicked since then. Back to back wins over Bradford and Reading are the standout results, and coming from behind to earn a draw at Oxford with 15 shots shows an attacking intent that is hard to argue with. The problem is that clean sheet column, which remains stubbornly empty after nine games. A defence shipping goals consistently, even if the attack is productive, is a vulnerability that a confident Gillingham front line will fancy exploiting.
The form picture heading in could not be more different in terms of defensive solidity. Gillingham have just posted their first back to back clean sheets of the season. Cambridge have not kept a single one. That contrast is arguably the most significant factor in how this game shapes up.
These two clubs have met on a reasonable number of occasions across the lower divisions over the years, and Cambridge will point to the fact that as the higher division side right now, they would expect to have the edge. There is also an element of familiarity here, with Harris describing Cambridge as expecting to get the better of a familiar opponent, which suggests these sides know each other reasonably well and there will not be too many tactical surprises. The EFL Trophy format often throws up games where the higher division side edges through, but the gap between League One and League Two is not so enormous that home advantage and red hot form count for nothing.
The form of both sides sets up a fascinating betting puzzle here. Gillingham are flying and at home, but they face a side from the division above who are themselves in decent nick. The Cambridge defensive record is the thread I keep pulling on, because nine games without a clean sheet at any level is a significant pattern, and Ainsworth’s men have just found their goalscoring boots in a big way. My angle on this game is that goals will come at both ends, Cambridge will likely edge it on quality, but Gillingham will not go without leaving their mark.
Back both teams to score here without any real hesitation. Cambridge have not kept a clean sheet in nine attempts, and Gillingham have been putting the ball in the net regularly during their winning run. The Gills attack has real confidence right now, and nothing in the Cambridge defensive record suggests they will suddenly find their clean sheet form in a cup tie away from home. Yes is the call.
Cambridge were firing off 15 shots at Oxford and tend to play with an aggressive, forward pressing style that should generate plenty of set piece situations. Gillingham push their wing backs high and look to get balls into the box. Both sides pressing into each other in an open cup tie atmosphere at Priestfield should produce a lively corners count. Over 9 corners looks a solid shout for this one.
Lamin Sillah has been leading the Gillingham line through their recent winning run and gets the nod here. Sillah will be playing at home, in front of a crowd buzzing after back to back clean sheet wins, against a Cambridge defence that cannot stop conceding. He is the focal point of an in-form attack and at League Two level against higher division opposition, strikers who are full of confidence can catch defenders cold early. Sillah to score first is worth a look at what should be a decent price.
Lean heavily towards over 2.5 goals in this one. Cambridge have struggled to shut teams out all season, Gillingham have been scoring freely, and a cup tie atmosphere with a home side full of confidence is not a recipe for a cagey 0-0. Three or more goals feels very much on the cards, and the underlying numbers from both sides support that view comfortably.
A cross division EFL Trophy tie with two sides who both want to win and have genuine momentum behind them should have a decent edge to it. Cambridge pressing from League One against a Gillingham side who will not want to be bullied at home creates the conditions for a few niggly fouls and some yellow cards. Over 3 cards in the match is worth considering, as the competitiveness of the fixture should ensure the referee is kept busy.
Given Cambridge’s superior division and their four game unbeaten run, combined with the fact that Gillingham will almost certainly score given their form and Cambridge’s defensive fragility, a 1-2 to Cambridge United feels like the most logical outcome. The Gills get on the scoresheet, Harris’s side have enough quality to nick it, and the final whistle sees the League One side edge through in a game that was closer than the division gap might suggest.
| Market | Selection |
|---|---|
| Both Teams To Score | Yes |
| Total Goals | Over 2.5 |
| Result | Cambridge United To Win |
Cambridge winning a goal filled game where both sides score fits neatly with everything the form and stats are pointing towards in this fixture.
Gillingham have given their fans plenty to cheer about lately and will make Cambridge work hard for this one. Ainsworth has his side organised, motivated and scoring goals, and Priestfield will be a decent atmosphere for a midweek cup tie. But Cambridge United are the better side on paper, they have the quality of Dominic Ball and Pelly Ruddock Mpanzu controlling the middle of the pitch, and Gassan Ahadme up front is a genuine handful at this level.
The Gills will score, because Cambridge simply do not keep clean sheets right now, but the League One side should have enough to take the three points back up the A14. Gillingham 1-2 Cambridge United is the call, a game that flatters neither side but probably reflects the current gap between the two divisions when a League One side is clicking properly.