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Walsall
StevenageWalsall have been one of the quietly impressive sides in the EFL this season, and the numbers back that up completely. Seven League Two games played, zero defeats, and a defensive record that no other EFL side with at least seven matches under their belt can match. Four goals conceded all season. That is not just solid, that is genuinely exceptional, and it sets the tone for everything you need to know about this Walsall side heading into Tuesday night.
Stevenage arrive at the Bescot in a different kind of mood altogether. Back to back wins against Barnsley and Luton had the Boro faithful daring to dream, but Saturday’s defeat at Leyton Orient brought them back down to earth. Nine points from seven League One games, sitting mid-table, and a goal return that makes for uncomfortable reading outside of that Oakwell demolition job. Something has to give on Tuesday evening.
This is a first round EFL Trophy fixture, with Walsall hosting Stevenage at the Bescot Stadium. Both clubs come into this competition off the back of disappointment in the EFL Cup, and both will be eager to use the Trophy as a way of building momentum and giving their squads something to play for.
Walsall have a couple of concerns to manage but nothing that should derail their preparations too seriously. Lee Grant should still have enough quality available to put out a competitive side.
Stevenage have their own absentees to contend with, and the timing is not ideal given their recent wobble in form.
Grant looks likely to go with a shape that mirrors what has been working so well in the league. Moore should slot back in having come through the late knock, and Aaron Pressley leads the line after a brilliant start to the season with four goals in six league starts.
Walsall expected XI: Ward; Ahui, Skura, Connolly, Hancock; Moore, Sprangler; Clarke, Evans, Smith; Pressley
Alex Revell will need to shuffle things around given the injury and availability questions, but Daniel Kemp is the man to build around given his current form. Patterson’s return gives Revell more options further forward, and he may well start after getting minutes under his belt at the weekend.
Stevenage expected XI: Marschall; James-Wildin, Vancooten, Piergianni, Freestone; Taylor, Thompson, Phillips, Broggio; Kemp; Sanderson
Walsall’s form this season has been genuinely impressive. Unbeaten in seven league games, sitting second in League Two with 13 points, and with clean sheets in five of those seven outings. The 2-0 win over Port Vale on Saturday was exactly the kind of controlled, professional performance that defines what Lee Grant is building at the Bescot. They are compact, they are difficult to break down, and they know how to win games without always being spectacular.
Their cup form has been a different story. Beating Championship side Bristol City in the EFL Cup first round was a genuine scalp, but the exit against Leyton Orient stung. Tuesday gives Grant the chance to channel that frustration into something productive, and you get the feeling this group of players will be motivated to do exactly that.
Stevenage’s season so far reads like a real mixed bag. Four games without a win to open the campaign, then those two brilliant victories against Barnsley and Luton that suggested the Boro had found their groove. But Saturday’s defeat at Brisbane Road has muddied the waters again. The underlying numbers are not exactly reassuring either. Outside of the 5-0 at Oakwell, Stevenage have averaged just one goal per game across their other six fixtures despite generating 22 shots on target in that time. That is a conversion rate that will concern Revell.
The recent head to head picture is actually pretty balanced in terms of results, with Stevenage losing just one of the previous four meetings between these clubs. But dig a little deeper and one stat jumps out. The Boro are yet to win at the Bescot Stadium. In seven previous visits, they have lost four and drawn three. Not a single victory to show for it.
Even in this very competition last season, Walsall got the better of Stevenage, winning 2-1 at Broadhall Way. The home side clearly carry a psychological edge in this fixture, and on their own turf especially, the Saddlers have been a very difficult proposition for the Boro to crack.
Walsall look the team to side with here. They are unbeaten, defensively outstanding, and playing at home against a Stevenage side that cannot buy a goal outside of their best day of the season. The Trophy context adds a little unpredictability, but the underlying quality feels like it runs firmly in the home side’s favour. Here is how the key markets look.
Given how few goals Walsall are conceding and how little Stevenage are creating on a consistent basis, backing BTTS feels like a stretch. The Saddlers have kept five clean sheets in seven league games, and Stevenage’s struggles in front of goal outside of the Barnsley anomaly make it hard to see them finding the net here. No on BTTS.
EFL Trophy fixtures can occasionally be a little scrappy as players look to make impressions on their managers, and with both sides carrying a degree of frustration from the weekend, there could be some edge to this one. Expect a handful of bookings, particularly in the middle of the park where both teams like to compete. Over three cards looks a reasonable shout.
Walsall’s defensive record is the dominant factor here. They are built to keep things tight and nick goals when it matters. A 1-0 home win feels like the most likely outcome given the way Grant sets his side up and the difficulty Stevenage have had in converting their chances this season.
Walsall tend to control games and keep the ball, which can limit the corner count, but Stevenage will need to press forward at some stage, particularly if they fall behind. A moderate total feels right here. Under ten corners could be worth a look given the potentially cagey nature of the contest.
Aaron Pressley is the standout pick. Four goals in six league starts is a brilliant return, and he has already shown he enjoys the EFL Trophy with five career strikes in the competition. He leads the line for the hosts, he is in form, and he is the man Grant will be looking to when chances arrive.
| Market | Selection |
|---|---|
| Match Result | Walsall Win |
| Both Teams To Score | No |
| First Goalscorer | Aaron Pressley |
Walsall’s defensive solidity makes the clean sheet angle compelling, Pressley’s form in front of goal makes him a natural first scorer pick, and combining those with a home win gives you a tidy builder that tells one consistent story about how this game is likely to unfold.
Everything about this fixture points towards Walsall. They are at home, they are unbeaten, they concede next to nothing, and they are facing a Stevenage side that has struggled badly for goals outside of one exceptional afternoon. The Boro’s record at the Bescot makes grim reading too, and nothing from their recent form suggests that is about to change on Tuesday night.
Grant will want a clean sheet and three points to carry into the weekend, and Pressley looks the most likely man to provide the decisive moment. Walsall 1-0 Stevenage is the call, a tight and controlled home win that tells you everything about what the Saddlers are about this season.