Day three of the Davis Cup qualifiers wraps things up today, with nations fighting for their place in the final eight in Bologna later this season. There are some genuinely compelling matches on the schedule, so here are my thoughts on how each one plays out.
These two have never met before, so there is no head to head record to lean on. What we do know is that both players are baseline grinders who love to dictate rallies from the back of the court on clay. Garin has that heavy forehand and decent movement, but he has been short of conviction for a while now. Merida Aguilar plays a similar brand of tennis but arrives in better form and with considerably more confidence, which on clay matters enormously when the long rallies start stacking up.
When two players share a similar style, the one who believes in themselves more tends to edge the tight moments, and right now that is clearly the Spaniard.
Another first meeting between these two. Altmaier is at his best on slower surfaces where his high, loopy backhand becomes a genuine weapon and opponents struggle to attack the ball cleanly. On indoor hard courts, that weapon loses some of its sting, and conditions tend to speed up enough to favour a more aggressive, counterpunching approach.
That is precisely what Dodig brings. His forehand can do real damage when the court plays quick and he is comfortable disrupting the rhythm that grinders like Altmaier depend on. The surface feels like it suits the Croatian more on this occasion, and I expect him to grind out a three set win.
Jodar leads the head to head two wins to one, and this is the standout match of the day. It is clay in Chile, so Tabilo will have crowd support and a surface he knows well. He has put in some solid performances this year and should not be underestimated on home soil. However, Jodar has had a genuinely exceptional season overall and despite a stumble at the US Open, his level across 2026 has been consistently high.
What separates Jodar in close baseline battles is his return of serve and his ability to stay composed when the pressure points arrive. Both of these players will trade blows from the back of the court, and it should be a competitive three setter, but Jodar has shown repeatedly this year that he knows how to close out the moments that decide matches.
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