Nigeria vs Madagascar Prediction, Betting Tips & Preview

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Nigeria

vs

Madagascar

KickoffFriday 25 September 2026, 5:00pm

VenueMoshood Abiola National Stadium

CompetitionAfrican Cup of Nations Qualifying

Nigeria come into this AFCON qualifying opener carrying the weight of expectation that never really leaves the Super Eagles. They have reached the semi finals of the last two Africa Cup of Nations tournaments, going all the way to the final in 2023, and the minimum requirement from supporters and federation alike is a straightforward path to the 2027 finals in Kenya, Uganda and Tanzania. The frustration of back to back World Cup absences still lingers, and Eric Chelle will know his side need to hit the ground running. Madagascar, meanwhile, are a team chasing ghosts of a golden moment. Their 2019 AFCON campaign was genuinely remarkable, a debut at the tournament that took them all the way to the quarter finals, but they have not come close to recapturing that form in qualifying since. Two wins from 18 qualifying matches tells you everything about where the Barea currently stand in African football.

That 2019 shock victory over Nigeria is the one result Madagascar fans still cling to, and Corentin Martins will absolutely be using it as motivation heading into this game. But context matters. That Super Eagles side was underperforming under Gernot Rohr, the crowd in Uyo is going to be fierce, and Nigeria carry genuine quality across the pitch even without their star striker available. This is not 2019. The hosts will be determined to make that clear from the first whistle.

Nigeria vs Madagascar Match Details

This fixture takes place at the Godswill Akpabio Stadium in Uyo, Nigeria, in Group L of the 2027 Africa Cup of Nations qualifying campaign. With co hosts Tanzania also sitting in this group, only one qualifying spot is realistically up for grabs, which makes every point from the very first game absolutely critical for both sides.

Team News

Nigeria have a significant absentee at the top of the pitch, with Victor Osimhen still not fit after a muscle injury. That is a big hole to fill, but Chelle has options, and the squad depth across the attacking positions is considerable. There are also a few positional battles worth watching across the park.

• Victor Osimhen is out with a muscle injury. Taiwo Awoniyi has been recalled to cover.
• Stanley Nwabali and Maduka Okoye are competing for the number one shirt.
• Ola Aina returns to the squad for the first time since September 2025 and is pushing for a starting spot.
• Zaidu Sanusi is injured and unavailable.
• Samuel Chukwueze’s role is uncertain given his recent deployment as a wing back at AC Milan under Ruben Amorim.
• George Ilenikhena could make his debut in some capacity, with Isaac James and Moses Usor also in contention.
• For Madagascar, goalkeeper Zacharie Boucher and striker Roman Ferber have received first ever call ups.
• Warren Caddy returns to add attacking threat for the Barea.
• Marco Ilaimaharitra, Rayan Raveloson and experienced defender Thomas Fontaine are the familiar names in the Madagascar setup.

Predicted Lineups

For Nigeria, Chelle looks likely to go with Nwabali in goal, with Ola Aina given the nod at right back on his return. The central defensive partnership of Ajayi and Bassey provides real solidity, with Onyemaechi at left back filling in for the absent Sanusi. Ndidi and Onyeka anchor the midfield, with Iwobi given licence to influence proceedings from a more advanced position. Simon operates on the flank, while Lookman and Akor Adams lead the attacking line in the absence of Osimhen.

Nigeria predicted XI: Nwabali; Aina, Ajayi, Bassey, Onyemaechi; Onyeka, Ndidi, Iwobi; Simon; Adams, Lookman.

Madagascar are expected to line up in a structured shape with Dupire in goal, a back four of Kari, Fontaine, Tremoulet and Ponti, a compact midfield including Ilaimaharitra, Rakotondrajoa and Raveloson, and an attacking trio of Randrianantenaina, Caddy and Abdallah. Martins will prioritise defensive organisation and hope to catch Nigeria on the break.

Madagascar predicted XI: Dupire; Kari, Fontaine, Tremoulet, Ponti; Acapandie, Ilaimaharitra, Rakotondrajoa, Raveloson; Randrianantenaina, Caddy.

Recent Form

Nigeria’s recent record on the continental stage is genuinely impressive when you look at the bigger picture. Two consecutive AFCON semi finals, a run to the final in 2023, and a quarter final exit against hosts Morocco in 2025 represent a team that performs when the tournament pressure is highest. The concern for Chelle is the tail end of the 2025 qualifying campaign, where the Super Eagles stumbled with a draw against Benin and a defeat to Rwanda in Uyo of all places. That loss at home will have stung, and it is exactly the kind of form that creates anxiety heading into a new qualifying cycle where the margins are tight.

Madagascar’s qualifying record in recent cycles is the numbers that concern Martins most. Two wins from 18 qualifying matches across the campaigns for AFCON 2023 and 2025 is a brutal return. They did not secure a single maximum points result in either of those qualifying campaigns before the finals, which tells you this is a side that struggles to impose itself in this format. The 2019 magic has not translated into sustained qualification form at all.

The contrast in momentum is stark. Nigeria, for all their occasional frustrations, are a team built for big occasions on home soil. Madagascar are coming in hoping to upset the odds rather than confident in their own recent rhythm. That shift in dynamic compared to 2019 is significant.

Head-to-Head Record

The headline result in the head to head is obviously that 2019 AFCON group stage victory for Madagascar, a 2-0 win that sent shockwaves through African football and remains one of the genuine upsets of recent continental history. For a team making their debut at the tournament to beat a three time African champion so convincingly was extraordinary.

But that was seven years ago, and Nigeria will be determined to rewrite that particular narrative on home turf. Playing in Uyo, with a crowd that demands results, the Super Eagles historically perform well at the Godswill Akpabio Stadium in qualifying fixtures. The 2019 result lives long in the memory for Madagascar fans, but it is not a template that travels easily into this current context.

Key Stats

• Madagascar have won just two of their last 18 AFCON qualifying matches across the 2023 and 2025 cycles.
• Nigeria reached the AFCON final in 2023 and the quarter finals in 2025, showing consistent tournament pedigree even without a fourth continental title.
• Rayan Raveloson has scored nine international goals for Madagascar, and a tenth from midfield is not beyond him if the Barea get any kind of foothold in this game.

Nigeria vs Madagascar Betting Tips

Nigeria are heavy favourites here and the logic behind that pricing is sound. They have the quality, the home advantage, the motivation and the recent continental pedigree to back it up. Madagascar will organise and stay compact, but their qualifying record suggests they are unlikely to cause real problems over 90 minutes against a side of Nigeria’s calibre. The value in this game is in looking at how the Super Eagles win rather than simply backing them on the match result.

Over and Under Goals Prediction

Nigeria carry real attacking threat across the pitch even without Osimhen leading the line. Lookman is a consistent performer at this level, Adams offers energy and movement, and Iwobi can open up any defensive structure with his creativity. Madagascar are defensive by necessity but their record suggests they leak goals in qualifying. Over 1.5 goals looks the sensible play here, and there is a decent case for over 2.5 given how motivated the Super Eagles will be to make a statement in game one.

Correct Score Prediction

A 2-0 home win feels like the most likely outcome. Nigeria have the firepower to get multiple goals even with Osimhen absent, and Madagascar’s qualifying record against stronger nations suggests a clean sheet for the Super Eagles is genuinely on the cards. The hosts will be professional rather than flamboyant, getting the job done with a controlled performance in front of a demanding Uyo crowd.

Corners Prediction

Nigeria will spend large periods of this game in the attacking third, pushing bodies forward against a Madagascar side that will look to defend in numbers. Expect the Super Eagles to work wide regularly through Simon and the overlapping fullbacks, which should generate a healthy corners count for the home side. Over 8.5 corners in the match looks reasonable, with Nigeria likely to account for the majority of those.

Cards Prediction

Madagascar will need to foul to disrupt Nigeria’s rhythm, and a compact defensive setup under pressure typically generates bookings. There is also the context of a competitive AFCON qualifier with both sides aware of what is at stake in a tight group. Expect at least three cards across the 90 minutes, with Madagascar’s midfielders likely to pick up yellows for cynical stops as Nigeria build pressure through the game.

First Goalscorer Prediction

Ademola Lookman is the pick here. Without Osimhen as the focal point, Lookman has the freedom to drift into dangerous areas and contribute directly to goals, and he has the composure on the ball to punish a Madagascar back line that will be under sustained pressure. He has been one of the most reliable attackers at this level in recent years and this feels like a fixture set up perfectly for him to make an early impact.

Bet Builder Tip

Nigeria winning to a clean sheet while Lookman opens the scoring aligns perfectly with the expected pattern of this game, a dominant home performance against a side that struggles to create in qualifying.

Final Match Prediction

Nigeria win this one without too much drama. The Super Eagles are a team that knows how to get results in AFCON qualifying on home soil, and the added motivation of launching a new campaign after World Cup heartbreak gives this squad real edge. Madagascar will make it difficult early on, they always do, but the quality gap across the pitch is simply too large to bridge over 90 minutes.

Lookman, Adams and Iwobi should cause serious problems for the Barea backline, and with Chelle looking to set a tone for the entire qualifying group, this feels like a controlled, professional home victory. Nigeria 2-0 Madagascar.

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