Italy vs Belgium Prediction, Betting Tips & Preview

Featured Offer

bet365

Bet £10 Get £30 in Free Bets

Claim Offer →

Min deposit requirement. Free Bets are paid as Bet Credits and are available for use upon settlement of qualifying bets. Min odds, bet and payment method exclusions apply. Returns exclude Bet Credits stake. Registration required. Time limits and T&Cs apply. GambleAware.org #ad

Italy

vs

Belgium

KickoffFriday 25 September 2026, 7:45pm

VenueStadio Olimpico

CompetitionUEFA Nations League

Italy are at a crossroads, and they know it. Missing out on a third consecutive World Cup is the kind of failure that shakes a football nation to its foundations, and the fallout has been brutal. Gennaro Gattuso has gone, a brief caretaker stint has come and gone, and now Roberto Mancini is back at the helm five years after guiding the Azzurri to European glory. This Nations League opener is more than just three points. It is the first step in a genuine rebuild, and the eyes of Italian football will be watching closely.

Belgium are in a similar position, reshaping under new management and figuring out what this squad actually looks like in the post golden generation era. Mark van Bommel has taken over from Rudi Garcia, who left despite steering the Red Devils to the World Cup quarter finals. This is a fixture between two proud nations who have both lost their way slightly, which makes it fascinating from a betting perspective. There is plenty of talent on the pitch but plenty of uncertainty around how that talent gets organised.

Italy vs Belgium Match Details

This UEFA Nations League League A Group 1 opener takes place at the Stadio Olimpico in Rome, with the Azzurri hosting in front of what promises to be a passionate but expectant crowd. Group 1 also features France and Turkey, so results here matter from the very start. Both sides have four games across the next fortnight, meaning a poor opening could leave either team playing catch up almost immediately.

Team News

Mancini has named a large 34 man squad with a clear eye on the future, and there are notable absentees on both sides heading into this one.

• Alessandro Bastoni is suspended for Italy and will not feature
• Federico Dimarco, Bryan Cristante and Manuel Locatelli are all out injured for the Azzurri
• Mateo Retegui has not been called up, leaving the striking options as Moise Kean, Gianluca Scamacca and the Esposito brothers
• Thibaut Courtois is taking a break from international football for Belgium
• Andre Onana misses out through a long term injury picked up at the World Cup
• Leandro Trossard is also sidelined through injury
• Jeremy Doku is excluded after only returning to club action last week
• Axel Witsel has retired from international football and Mats Selz has also stepped away

Predicted Lineups

Mancini is expected to go with a 4-3-3 and the big selection call upfront centres on who leads the line. Pio Esposito gets the nod here. He has five goals in nine international appearances since making his debut in World Cup qualifying, and his form for Inter Milan gives him the edge over Kean and Scamacca. Michael Kayode, who has been impressive for Brentford, slots in at right back, while Alessandro Romano, who turned down Switzerland to represent the Azzurri, adds midfield cover.

For Belgium, Van Bommel looks likely to line up with experienced heads like Kevin De Bruyne and Romelu Lukaku anchoring the attacking threat, while Romeo Lavia and Youri Tielemans provide the engine in midfield. Mika Godts, the PSG winger who finished as Eredivisie second top scorer last season, is a genuine threat on the left. Senne Lammens is the likely choice in goal with Courtois absent.

• Italy: Donnarumma; Kayode, Mancini, Scalvini, Calafiori; Barella, Tonali, Frattesi; Inacio, P. Esposito, Raspadori
• Belgium: Lammens; Castagne, De Winter, Theate, De Cuyper; Tielemans, Lavia; Lukebakio, De Bruyne, Godts; Lukaku

Recent Form

Italy have been in a transitional phase and the form guide reflects that. Under interim boss Silvio Baldini, the Azzurri ran out 1-0 winners in both post season friendlies against Luxembourg and Greece, but you would not read too much into victories over that level of opposition. What matters more is the context of those results. Baldini fielded young, largely uncapped squads, so Mancini is essentially starting from scratch in terms of building a cohesive group. That said, the talent base is genuinely exciting, and playing at home in Rome should help them find their feet quickly.

Belgium’s recent form tells a more interesting story. Prior to their World Cup quarter final defeat to Spain, the Red Devils were unbeaten across 18 consecutive games. That is a remarkable run, and it shows this squad has real quality even if the golden generation is slowly fading. The defeat to Spain was narrow and came against the eventual tournament winners, so there is no shame in that. Van Bommel has inherited a group with genuine competitive spirit, even if the transition period means the opening weeks under his management could be a little rough around the edges.

The concern for both sides is cohesion. New managers, new ideas and new players being introduced means neither team is likely to look like a well oiled machine straight away. This fixture is as much about getting through the first match intact as it is about performances.

Head-to-Head Record

The historical record here leans heavily in Italy’s favour. The Azzurri have won four of the last five meetings between these sides, with Belgium managing just a single draw in that run. Their previous Nations League encounters were tough for the Red Devils too, yielding one draw and two defeats. There is a clear pattern of Italy finding a way to get the better of Belgium at this level, and home advantage at the Olimpico only adds to that.

Belgium have not managed to beat Italy in competitive football recently, and with a new manager taking charge for the first time, replicating that trend seems unlikely. Van Bommel will have watched that recent record closely, and getting something from this fixture would represent a real statement of intent for his reign.

Key Stats

• Italy have won four of the last five head to head meetings with Belgium
• Pio Esposito has scored five goals in just nine appearances for Italy since his debut, a return that makes him the standout striking option for Mancini
• Belgium were unbeaten in 18 games before their World Cup exit, highlighting the underlying quality Van Bommel has at his disposal

Italy vs Belgium Betting Tips

Two sides under new management, both with unanswered questions about their starting shape and tactical identity, meeting on the opening night of a group that also features France. The smart money here is on caution. Italy’s home record against Belgium is strong, but this feels like a game where neither side goes all out for the win from the first whistle. There is value in backing a tight, low scoring contest with Italy just edging it.

Correct Score Prediction

Italy to win 1-0. The head to head record, home advantage and the expected caution from both managers all point towards a narrow win for the Azzurri without a huge amount of attacking fireworks. This feels like exactly the kind of game where one set piece or one moment of quality from Barella or Raspadori settles it.

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) Prediction

No. With the injuries Belgium are carrying in attack, Trossard and Doku both absent and the Azzurri likely to be defensively disciplined under Mancini, keeping a clean sheet at the Olimpico looks achievable. De Bruyne and Lukaku are a threat, but Italy have the defensive organisation to contain them in a tight opener.

Cards Prediction

Over 3.5 cards looks fair here. These Nations League openers often carry a competitive edge that friendlies do not, and with two new managers desperate to make a strong start there will be intensity in the midfield battles. Tielemans and Lavia will be scrapping against Barella and Tonali, and that combination has yellow card written all over it.

Over and Under Goals Prediction

Under 2.5 goals. With both teams still finding their feet under new management, key attacking players missing on both sides, and Italy’s historically solid defensive structure, this has low scoring game written all over it. Three or more goals would be a genuine surprise given the circumstances.

First Goalscorer Prediction

Pio Esposito is the pick here. Five goals in nine international appearances is a stunning return, his club form for Inter Milan is sharp, and Mancini is expected to hand him the starting spot upfront. With Italy likely to dominate possession at home, Esposito will get chances, and he has already shown he knows how to take them at this level.

Corners Prediction

Over 8.5 corners. Italy will push forward consistently at the Olimpico, and Belgium will look to hit them on the break, which tends to produce corner opportunities at both ends. De Bruyne delivering from deep and Italy pressing high means both sides should accumulate corners across 90 minutes, making the over a solid call.

Bet Builder Tip

Italy winning without conceding fits the historical pattern and the attacking absences for Belgium, while the corners market should tick over nicely as the Azzurri push for goals on home soil.

Final Match Prediction

This is a game defined by what neither side has rather than what they do have. Italy are missing Bastoni, Dimarco, Cristante and Locatelli. Belgium are without Courtois, Onana, Trossard and Doku. Two new managers trying to implement new ideas with unfamiliar combinations in a competitive fixture. It is a recipe for caution, not entertainment.

Italy’s home record against Belgium is compelling, and Mancini will know that getting off to a winning start in front of the Olimpico crowd would give his rebuilding project real momentum. A narrow 1-0 win for the Azzurri feels like the most likely outcome, with one moment of quality settling it. Belgium will make it difficult but simply lack the firepower tonight to breach a motivated Italian backline.

Featured Offer

bet365

Bet £10 Get £30 in Free Bets

Claim Offer →

Min deposit requirement. Free Bets are paid as Bet Credits and are available for use upon settlement of qualifying bets. Min odds, bet and payment method exclusions apply. Returns exclude Bet Credits stake. Registration required. Time limits and T&Cs apply. GambleAware.org #ad