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Rennes
AuxerreRennes go into this one with a real point to prove. That 4-0 hammering at Lyon was a brutal reality check, and while one bad day on the road doesn’t undo everything they’ve built this season, the manner of the defeat was hard to ignore. Four goals conceded in a single match when they’d only shipped five in total across their other five competitive games combined. That is not a blip you can just wave away. But here’s the thing: Roazhon Park has been a different story entirely. Rennes are unbeaten at home this season and they’ll be absolutely desperate to keep that record intact.
Auxerre arrive in decent nick, which is quite the turnaround given how Will Still’s tenure began. Three defeats on the bounce with eleven goals conceded was not the start anyone at the Burgundy club had in mind for their new gaffer. But they’ve steadied the ship, back to back wins with only one goal against, and there’s genuine momentum building. Whether they can carry that form into a hostile Roazhon Park is the real question this weekend.
This Ligue 1 fixture takes place at Roazhon Park, Rennes’ home ground in Brittany. It’s a ground that has already seen Stade Rennais establish themselves as a tough nut to crack this season, and Auxerre will need to produce something special to leave with anything.
Neither side goes into this completely clean on the injury front, though Rennes are closer to full strength than their visitors.
Franck Haise has a fairly settled squad to choose from and the main selection call revolves around whether Cisse is risked or left out. If he doesn’t make it, Haise has the depth to cover without drastically reshaping things. Lepaul leads the line and will be hungry after a quiet few weeks in front of goal on the domestic front.
Rennes: Samba; Frankowski, Ait Boudlal, Cresswell, Merlin; Rongier; Mayenda, Camara, Thomasson, Al Taamari; Lepaul
Will Still will be without several key bodies but Cameron Archer keeps his place up front after scoring against Brest, and the back four will face a stern examination of how much their defensive improvement is genuine progress rather than just a softer run of fixtures.
Auxerre: Diop; Diomande, Tuanzebe, Akpa; Sy, Faivre, Danois, Oppegard; Loader, Archer, Lascary
Rennes have been one of the more watchable sides in Ligue 1 this season when things click, but that Lyon result leaves a mark. Dropping five positions to fifth after a 4-0 defeat tells you the table is tight, but it also tells you the performance was way below the standards Haise demands. What’s encouraging is that across the rest of their campaign, they’ve been hard to beat and potent going forward. They’ve scored first in almost every league game, and when they do get their nose in front they tend to hold on. Only two points dropped in those situations all season is a strong stat.
The big chances numbers are interesting too. Third in the league for big chances created at nineteen, but also third for big chances missed at sixteen. That tells you Rennes are getting into positions that most sides would envy, but the end product has been inconsistent. Lepaul not having found the back of the net since matchday two in the league feels like a situation that’s due to correct itself, and a home game against an Auxerre defence that was still leaking goals a few weeks ago might be exactly the moment.
Auxerre’s turnaround under Still has been sharp. Going from conceding eleven in three games to keeping things tight over two consecutive wins is not nothing. It suggests the tactical organisation has improved and the players are buying in. But there’s a big difference between steadying the ship against mid table opposition and coming to Roazhon Park and keeping a Rennes attack quiet for ninety minutes.
Rennes have not lost to Auxerre in their last two meetings in Ligue 1, scoring multiple goals in both encounters last season. That’s the kind of record that carries weight in a fixture like this, and it suggests Rennes have a reasonable handle on how to hurt this particular opponent. Auxerre haven’t been completely out of it in recent visits though, earning a 2-2 draw at Roazhon Park in this exact fixture last season, so they know they can nick something here. In fact they’ve taken points on five of their last six trips to this ground, which is a better away record in this particular fixture than you might expect.
For Still, a first league win on the road in charge of Auxerre would be a genuine milestone. This club has only managed one domestic away win since March, which underlines just how difficult they find it to perform away from home. The history between these sides keeps this game interesting, but Rennes edge it on recent momentum.
The angle here feels pretty clear. Rennes are motivated, at home, and up against a defence that was in freefall not long ago. The visitors have improved but the step up in class this weekend is significant. Backing the home side to win and finding value in the goals markets makes the most sense given what we know about both teams right now.
Esteban Lepaul is overdue a Ligue 1 goal and this feels like the game where he gets off the mark again. The France international has been getting into the right areas all season and with Rennes expected to press forward early at home, he should get chances. The 19 big chances Rennes have created this term haven’t all converted, but one of their main strikers getting back on the scoresheet at a ground where they’ve been dominant feels well worth a punt.
No on the BTTS. Rennes at home have been fairly controlled and Auxerre’s attack, while not toothless as Cameron Archer showed against Brest, hasn’t exactly been prolific. With Rennes likely to dominate possession and Auxerre potentially sitting deep to protect what they have, a clean sheet for the hosts isn’t out of the question. The visitors are missing bodies too, which limits their options in the final third.
Over on the corners market looks appealing. Rennes create a lot of chances which naturally generates corner situations, and if Auxerre set up defensively and absorb pressure for large spells then the deliveries into the box will keep coming. A home side pushing for goals against a side likely to defend deep typically produces a high corner count, and Rennes have the width in their setup through Merlin and Al Taamari to cause problems out wide repeatedly.
A 2-0 win for Rennes feels like the most natural landing spot. The home side get their goals, Lepaul or one of the creative players chips in, and Auxerre struggle to create enough to threaten Samba. The visitors have tightened up but Rennes at home are a different proposition to anything they’ve faced in that improved run, and a clean sheet for the hosts would not surprise in the slightest.
| Market | Selection |
|---|---|
| Match Result | Rennes to Win |
| First Goalscorer | Esteban Lepaul |
| Both Teams To Score | No |
Rennes winning with Lepaul on the scoresheet and a clean sheet in the mix all point in the same direction given their home dominance and Auxerre’s limited firepower without several key players.
Rennes to win this comfortably. The Lyon defeat hurt but it should also act as a wake up call, and Roazhon Park is where this team has looked most like themselves all season. Auxerre’s improvement under Still is real but it hasn’t been tested at this level yet, and the combination of injuries, a suspension, and the step up in class makes it hard to see them getting anything from this one.
Predicted score: Rennes 2-0 Auxerre. Haise’s side get back on track, Lepaul ends his goal drought, and the home record stays intact for another week.