Pertemps Final Tips

Oliver Greenall and Josh Guerriero face an anxious wait to see if their progressive hurdler White Rhino can squeeze in to the final field of 24 for the Pertemps Network Final Handicap Hurdle on Thursday, as he currently sits at number 29 following the 6-day confirmation stage.

The Pertemps is probably one of the handicaps during the week that I would have the smallest shortlist of potential bets for, and White Rhino would certainly be on that list, but I’ll be waiting until declaration time when confirmation of a run and extra place terms will sweeten the mood for that particular wager.

Chantry House is also in the shake-up for me, as he has been quite cleverly and carefully campaigned to get in the race from a handicap mark that probably quite significantly underplays his ability. Don’t forget that just over 2 years ago, not quite in the dim and distant past, Chantry House was winning the Cotswold Chase and had a chase rating of 160.

He may not be the force of old, but on two of his three hurdle starts this season, he has proved that he is a force that could conceivably be good enough to be competitive in what looks an open, but perhaps under-par renewal of the race.

However, there is something of a cloud around the Nicky Henderson yard, rightly or wrongly, and I’d like to see how his runners fare earlier in the week before supporting Chantry House here.

Instead, the play right now for me is without a doubt the most progressive and improving horse in the field – Ted Walsh’s likeable mare Gaoth Chuil, who is available at 8/1 each-way with Bet365 for 5 places. I’d be surprised if she isn’t one that is latched onto in the market, and so taking the 8/1 now, I think, just outweighs the potential upside of waiting for a final field and extra places. She could conceivably be 5/1 favourite at the off.

Since stepping up in trip, Gaoth Chuil has taken off and there is no real way of knowing where her improvement may stop. Her two starts over 3m at Leopardstown this season have resulted in a cosy win in the qualifier for this race at Christmas time, and also a very nice run when runner-up at the Dublin Racing Festival.

This last effort was most notable as she made up ground wide and from the rear off a very slow pace, without being asked for absolutely everything. It ensured she was given a rating which would guarantee her a place in the final field, but still hide some of that ability that she possesses from the assessor.

It wouldn’t surprise me at all if she made up into a genuine Stayers’ Hurdle contender next season, and so the 8/1 each-way with Bet365 for 5 places now seems a must bet, if that notion is anywhere near correct.

Will Smith’s Pertemps Final Tips

Day Three of the Cheltenham Festival features just the one Ante-Post pick for this column, and for those not already involved, I would suggest 12/1 about Balco Coastal for the Turner’s Novices’ Chase at 1.30 is still a lovely each-way price. Given his rate of improvement, his form tying in well with the main protagonists through yesterday’s Brown Advisory runner-up Gerri Colombe, and the potential for the ground being majorly against Banbridge – I do think Balco Coastal could be a major player.

Beyond that opening race, the Pertemps Network Final Handicap Hurdle at 2.10 looks to be a decent betting opportunity too, as plenty of the main players will have desperately wanted better ground than it will be.

It certainly doesn’t look as deep as can sometimes be the case, given the adjusted qualification criteria adopted for this season, and with SkyBet offering 8 places and a general 6 places available everywhere else, it makes a lot of sense to arm ourselves quite heavily in this race.

I am recommending chiming in with three each-way bets here, and could easily have added Captain Morgs as a fourth, but feel maybe the ground is slightly against that Nicky Henderson-trained horse.

First up is course and distance winner Hector Javilex, who went through the soft ground here on New Year’s Day extremely well, and since being safely nestled in 4th spot to qualify for this at Huntingdon 7 weeks ago, Hector Javilex will have been nicely freshened up for this.

At 14/1 each-way with SkyBet for those 8 places, and 16/1 everywhere else for 6 places, Hector Javilex is the main play.

The first extra play is one of the Nicky Henderson clan, and it is the one of his that will love the soft ground – Mill Green may be the oldest horse in the race, but is certainly not running like it. Third in the race last year, in addition to two previous excellent runs in the two preceding Martin Pipe Conditional Jockeys’ races, and third on his prep run for this, at 28/1 each-way with Paddy Power or Betfair Sportsbook for 6 places, he will outrun those odds.

Last up is last season’s Albert Bartlett Novices’ Hurdle 5th Green Book, whose form is bearing remarkable resemblance to last season – a win in a valuable Sandown handicap hurdle, followed by bombing out at Haydock Park, to then run a cracker at the Cheltenham Festival.

If he completes the third leg of that descriptor again, then at 33/1 each-way for 6 places with Coral, then Green Book will give us some profit at the very least.

The old adage of time waits for no man can be quickly applied to the festival handicap markets as with not much time for water to go under the bridge, the markets are becoming more and more volatile on a daily basis. The confirmations for the day one races went through this afternoon which is another step closer to the event, and closer to the realization that the best week of the year for National Hunt fans is almost on our doorstep. Remember again when trawling through the entries this week that time waits for no man.

With all this taken into account, it is time for me to take a good look at the Pertemps final on the Thursday of the meeting, with this quirky 3m handicap hurdle often being a very tricky race to get to the bottom of. Reasons for this are open for debate, but the fact that the race itself rewards horses farming around in 4th and 5th place qualifiers is probably not the greatest solution to the integrity of the sport. However, from a ruthless punting perspective, it is those sort of horses that one must keep onside at all times, and I have highlighted two horses that should be up to running big races for their respective connections.

The first is Folcano, for the Gordon Elliot team and the Bective Stud ownership. He is in the same colours as Tullybeg, who certainly would not be without a chance in this race and is probably one to keep the right side of as well. I am not sure whether the plan is for the two of them to run in this race, but given the fact that Non-Runner-No-Bet concessions are available, I am more than willing to take the jump on Folcano – who has shown more than enough form to suggest that he could be a very well handicapped horse going into this festival.

Folcano has made one previous trip to Cheltenham in his career and it was safe to say that it ended in tears, with the horse being brought down at the first hurdle in the Martin Pipe last year. There had been whispers that he was well fancied that day and the fact we didn’t get to see him perform was disappointing. However, his efforts this year have been encouraging. He quite notably snuck into sixth in a Pertemps Qualifier around Punchestown before running a big race in fourth at Navan in a handicap in December. He has put away with the festival in mind and just seems to be a case of whether he will run in the Pertemps of the Martin Pipe.

I would personally back him in either, but I would be siding with this option and at a price of 12/1 with SkyBet – who are offering 5 places each way alongside NRNB, looks a worthy bet.

More interestingly though in this race is the overlooked Born Patriot, who also looks to have a fair fighting chance for the shrewd Peter Fahey yard and for the same connections as Belfast Banter, who won the County Hurdle last year. This horse has been well campaigned to sneak into this race off a lowly mark, and will be suited by the ground conditions and the likelihood of a good pace to aim at in this race.

An angle I am always interested in for these big festival handicaps is course experience, and the second place from Born Patriot in the October qualifier was a superb run, especially when a few things went against him on the day. He was held up off the pace despite it being a middling gallop and when asked to chase down the leader on the way to the last, he fluffed his lines and couldn’t pick up again. I would hope that experience could stand to him and the new course is more likely to suit this horse’s strengths than the old one would have.

He ran a shade below his form at Sandown the last day, but they maybe had this target in mind and given the fact he qualified for this race in the early part of the season, he has not been knocked about since and has been given the chance to come here fresh and well. He will be held up for a late run from off the pace and the likelihood of him getting that pace to aim at seems all but assured, and if his jumping can hold up – he should have a massive chance.

At a best price of 20/1 with William Hill, who are also offering 5 places each way NRNB, he should be backed.

Historically, this race has been the stuff of folklore, of sneaking into the bottom of the handicap, of qualifying for it without even having to run in a qualifier, of keeping a stone’s improvement up your sleeve, and of gambles – legendary gambles.

Run at 1.55pm on the Thursday on the New Course, the Pertemps Final has changed slightly in nature over the course of time however, and has become the domain of the classy staying hurdler, who is verging on graded class. Indeed, the winners of the last four renewals typify the shift in nature – Presenting Percy, Delta Work and Sire Du Berlais (twice), have all either gone on to contest and win graded races over fences, or in the case of Sire Du Berlais, have a live chance in the upcoming Stayers’ Hurdle.

So, glancing quickly at the market for this year’s renewal, the likes of Imperial Alcazar and The Bosses Oscar are worthy market principles. While of those lower down the handicap, it is clear for all to see that this has been a plan for Champagne Platinum, and he could well have a few pounds in hand. But is he inherently classy enough to cope with those at the top of the weights? I’d have my slight doubts.

There is one horse who has an outstanding profile for the race, and ticks almost every box you need for this race. That is the Henry Daly-trained Honest Vic, who is available to back each-way at 25/1 with Betfred, who are 5 places for each-way purposes, and also ‘non-runner, no bet (NRNB)’.

A somewhat late developer, his last two seasons have been defined by vast improvement, which is down to two things – the application of headgear (most notably a visor) and stepping up to staying trips. It is quite possible Daly has only scratched the surface of his ability over 3m, and a Stayers’ Hurdle entry would perhaps confirm that notion is in the trainer’s mind also. This is why the 25/1 is worth taking with Betfred, who are NRNB.

Honest Vic has had four runs at Cheltenham in his career, and has never run a bad race over the undulations of Prestbury Park. Beaten less than 2 lengths in a handicap hurdle over 2m 4½f in April 2018, he was coming there to potentially win the same race in 2019, when making a hash of the last and losing all chance. It was an uncharacteristic error, as his hurdling is usually fluent and his smaller, nimble nature is well suited to the rigours of Cheltenham.

Honest Vic’s next assignment at jump racing’s HQ was in last season’s Coral Cup, when just done for a bit of pace by Dame De Compagnie et al. over the last, before running on again at the line, and indeed would have been fourth in another couple of strides.

This prompted Daly to go over 3m for the first time on his debut this season in a qualifier for this race at Cheltenham, and he duly delivered a breath-taking performance visually, and on the clock. This demolition job increased confidence that we might see a bold showing in the Long Distance Hurdle against Paisley Park, Thyme Hill and McFabulous. But there was no pace on, and Richard Patrick (knowing he was on a strong stayer) elected to make the running. Not a bad move by any means, but it just made him a sitting duck to better horses.

Kept fresh for this race presumably, after a predictably outpaced showing in a Kempton jumpers’ bumper a month ago, he will love going back to Cheltenham, and has nothing to fear from any of his potential rivals if he’s in the same form as the Coral Cup run, or the course and distance win in October. Therefore, at 25/1 with Betfred, he is way too tempting an each-way proposition to not get involved NRNB.