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Four-weight world champion Naoya “Monster” Inoue (31-0, 27 KOs) defends his undisputed super-bantamweight championship to the latest challenger Alan David Picasso (32-0-1, 17 KOs) for a record sixth defence on Saturday night, December 27, in Riyadh, live on DAZN.
Japanese superstar Inoue is a permanent fixture in the pound-for-pound world rankings, alongside Terence Crawford and Oleksandr Usyk, the trio constantly rotate around the top 3 spots with every new victory they claim.
Trained by his father, Shingo, Naoya Inoue is a complete fighter, he doesn’t have any weaknesses. That’s not to say he is invincible, as he has been dropped by Luis Nery and Ramon Cardenas in recent fights. Both times, he got over-confident throwing flurries in close and was stunned by counter left hooks. The Cardenas knockdown initially appeared to be very heavy, but on both occasions he was clear and unhurt, able to continue comfortably with no real scare.
He just went 12 full rounds with one of his hardest challengers, Murodjon Akhmadaliev, in September. Those 36 minutes against such a top operator will be invaluable to him, but he will be thinking to himself that he won’t want to do that again. In the dying seconds of the fight, he took a big shot and looked visibly shaken by it, so he will be determined not to go into those later rounds where you are required to dig deep and suck it up. He won’t be looking for the knockout because he’s too much of a consummate professional for that, but he won’t be keen on doing too many hard rounds either.
There’s not many opponents Inoue has faced who are unbeaten with more wins than he. Emmanuel Rodriguez in 2019 was the last one; he was 19-0 while Naoya was 17-0.
Undefeated in 33 bouts, Picasso possesses a height and reach advantage over the elite champion, standing at least three inches taller, with a 2-3 inch longer reach. He also has youth on his side, at 25 he is seven years Inoue’s junior. The significant difference is levels; he has had just five championship fights, compared to Inoue’s 28. In fact, Inoue has had just three non-title fights, winning the Japanese light-flyweight title in his fourth fight, them competing for championships thereafter. He is currently 26-0, 24 KOs in world title fights, whereas this is Picasso’s first word title venture.
The Mexican likes to fight at mid-range where he is able to lean into big body shots particularly the left hook to the body, which is especially effective.
In July, the WBC #2 scalped another Japanese opponent in Kyonsuke Kameda, winning via mixed decision, with two judges at 98-92, 97-93, and the third split at 95-95. Kameda looked hard done by when the result was read aloud, but Picasso seemed to have done enough.
However, it’s not a convincing win against a top, top operator that will prepare him for the likes of the “Monster” he about to face on the day after the aptly named Boxing Day.
Picasso is great fighter, technically brilliant with all-round boxing skills, and a worthy challenger to Inoue. I’m quite sure he will have snippets of success with his high workrate, voluminous punching, and ability to land hooks and uppercuts from varied angles in close.
However, his willingness to fight at mid-range and open up aggressively will allow an elite champion like Inoue to exploit the many openings and opportunities.
Picasso isn’t as heavy-handed as several of Inoue’s recent opponents, so this will also allow Inoue to open up fully with big, powerful punches, as he may not be too deterred with what’s coming back.
I would pick Inoue to win a majority of his fights by knockout, but because of Picasso’s preferred range, style and aggression, I can see Inoue be given extra opportunities in this fight, which could allow him to land big very early on.
When you fight at mid-range, you are there to be hit at all times. You have to be busy and clever with your workrate and selection to dominate the other man in front of you, but that other man is as intelligent, heavy-handed, experienced and elite as they come, so I have a feeling this fight isn’t going to last too long.
Picasso’s inexperience is going to show early on. Ranked WBO #8 and WBA #10, he will offer a challenge, but won’t present a real threat to the king. His confidence will get him through a few of the opening rounds, but Inoue is going to show he is a level up from him and will take over very early into the fight to break him down and win by knockout.
Prediction: Inoue to win by KO/TKO
Extra Tip: Inoue to win by KO/TKO 1-6
Bonus Tip: Add Junto Nakatani (31-0, 24 KOs) to defeat Sebastian Hernandez Reyes (20-0, 18 KOs) in the co-main event to set up the biggest fight in Japanese boxing history against Naoya Inoue next.
“Big Bang” Nakatani and “Monster” Inoue have been on a collision course for a little while now, so Junto is going to need a big win to take him into the biggest fight of his career, so he will be at his very best, knowing how high the stakes are and what exciting opportunities lie ahead for him. He has stopped his last five foes within six rounds, so when up against an aggressive Mexican who will be opening up, another KO win is highly possible.
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Tim Rickson is the WhichBookie boxing analyst who joined the team midway through 2022 and will be providing boxing betting tips throughout the year for all of the big fights.
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We never recommend an actual stake to use for each bet as this will vary between people depending on the size of their betting bank. Never bet more than you can afford to lose and always stick to your staking plan.
WhichBookie boxing analyst Tim Rickson will publish tips whenever he finds value in a bet. If there is a big fight coming up, it’s likely that he will cover it but generally, they’ll be posted whenever a good bet comes about.
Many of the big boxing matches are only available via Pay Per View. However, you may be able to find streams of some of the less-popular fights via the Bet365 Live Streaming service. Bet365 provides over 100,000 live streams of sporting events every year and is regarded as one of the best services for streaming sports online without charge.
There are several options when it comes to betting on boxing, and the more you know, the better your chances of success. We will now go into more detail about some of the different betting markets that you will find, and discuss a few potential strategies you could use.
As with most sports, the outright market is probably the simplest, because you’re just betting on who will win the fight. There are no other criteria to consider, other than the fact that with many of the best bookies for boxing, you can also bet on the draw. However, draws in boxing are very rare and not many people tend to back this outcome.
Bear in mind that in many fights, one boxer tends to be a heavy favourite and it’s usually quite easy to pick the winner. There don’t tend to be that many shock results. Therefore, the odds on the favourite are often very low, even if you use the bookie with the best odds as described earlier in the article.
If you’re happy betting at short odds, you can certainly get a good success rate simply by backing short price favourites in boxing. But many people prefer to look for bigger wins. So you may sometimes need to look at some of the other markets to get a better return on your bet.
This market lets you choose not only who will win the fight, but how they will win. Different methods of victory are usually grouped as follows:
So because there are more possible outcomes in this market, the odds are higher than just the outright win market.
The Round Betting market offers the opportunity to get the highest odds. Here you can bet on which fighter will win, and which round he/she will win in.
Options to bet on a fighter to win on points, or to bet on the draw, are both also included in this market. In a 12 round bout, that gives 27 different possible outcomes. Therefore, the odds on each one are naturally going to be much higher. Think of it as the equivalent of the correct score market in football betting.
So the round betting market offers the biggest potential wins when betting on boxing. But of course, it’s harder to predict the outcome. You do have the option to split your stake to cover more than one outcome though. So if you felt that a fighter would win within the first 3 rounds, you could split your stake to back him to win in round 1, round 2 and round 3. The odds would mean you’d get a good profit if any of those outcomes happened.
This is a simple market in which you decide whether the fight will last all 12 rounds or not. Therefore there are only two outcomes to bet on, Yes or No.
It’s possible to get a decent success rate when betting on this market. Check the stats and the history of each boxer and ask yourself the following:
The answers to these key questions should give you a good idea of whether the fight is likely to go the distance or not. There can still be surprises, but you’ll certainly win more bets than you lose.
This market allows you to bet on the total number of rounds the fight will last for. The advantage here is that you do not need to specify who will win, just how long it will last.
For example, let’s consider a market of Over/Under 3.5 Rounds. There are only two options to bet on, either Over 3.5 Rounds or Under 3.5 Rounds. Therefore, you would approach the market as follows:
You will find that similar markets are available for Over/under 4.5, Over/Under 5.5, Over/Under 6.5 etc.
As any professional punter will tell you, the key to making a profit is not knowing who will win every time. Because obviously, that is not possible. The real trick is making sure that when you do win, you get the best possible odds on your bet.
We studied the odds for outright bets on every professional boxing match over a period of three months. We wanted to find the best bookies for boxing odds over a prolonged period of time.
As you would expect, Betfair and Bet365 are better than most of the competition. But the results showed that Betfred have the highest odds overall and came out well in some of the other markets like round betting.
Betfred were consistently best or equal best odds on nearly every outright market we recorded. They blew some of the other online bookies away in terms of the value they offered on boxing, and their user ratings are good too. So if you don’t have an account with them yet, we would definitely recommend joining.
| Best Bookies For Boxing | ||
|---|---|---|
![]() | Betfred | Visit |
![]() | Bet365 | Visit |
![]() | Betfair | Visit |