Arkle Novices’ Chase 2021
Marsh Novices’ Chase 2021
Date of Tips: 27/04/2020
Disclaimer The odds for these selections were correct at the time of publishing (08:40 27/04/2020) but may have changed since. Please check the latest price before placing your bet.
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Arkle Novices’ Chase 2021 – Shishkin 4/1 (Bet365)
Having commented before the 2020 Cheltenham Festival, that this year’s crop of novice hurdlers look well above average, and could be the horses that we are talking about for future novice chases and/or open company Grade 1 hurdles in time – it is pretty obvious that in the shape of Shishkin, Abacadabras, Envoi Allen, Monkfish, Latest Exhibition, Fury Road, Thyme Hill and many others, that we are talking about a highly exciting group of horses for the 2020/1 jumps season.
I have already suggested backing Abacadabras and Thyme Hill for the Champion Hurdle and Stayers’ Hurdle respectively in the immediate aftermath of the 2020 Festival, amongst a few other tasty prices – https://www.whichbookie.co.uk/cheltenham-festival/tips/ante-post/
Now is the time to delve in on a couple of others in that list – Shishkin and Envoi Allen. Both potential superstars of the game, and trained by two of the very best.
You may scoff at the prices I am recommending you taking, and it wouldn’t normally be something that would float my boat. But such is the regard with which these two are held, such is the substance of their performances to date, such is the reluctance of bookmakers to waiver from a strong view on a good horse (and why should they), and such is the strength of support for these such horses nearer and on the day of racing – that it all adds up to a likelihood of these prices being a distant memory come March 2021.
The meat of my recommendation is the Each-way Double on the pair for the races mentioned. You can get just upwards of 25/1 that they win the Arkle and the Marsh. And in securing that, it is worth having single savers on each of them, should one of them not make the suggested assignments – Shishkin at 4/1 for the Arkle Novices’ Chase, and Envoi Allen at 9/2 for the Marsh Novices’ Chase – with William Hill, Paddy Power or Betfair Sportsbook.
Shishkin ran away up the hill in the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle in company with Abacadabras, who I believe is a genuine Champion Hurdle horse. Given how much went wrong for Shishkin in the race, he is quite clearly a horse of extraordinary ability. Hesitantly offered up in the same breath as the likes of Sprinter Sacre and Altior within Seven Barrows, I see very little chance that he is aimed at anything other than the prestigious Arkle next season.
Envoi Allen was ridden like a wonder horse in the Ballymore Novices’ Hurdle, and there was just a moment as they swung into the straight, that supporters would have been forgiven for holding their breath. Such was the economical ease with which he gained ground on the leaders approaching the final flight, and the manner in which he cosily pulled just far enough clear, suggested that Davy Russell had got it spot on in his summation of just how good and uncomplicated a horse Envoi Allen is.
His 2021 Cheltenham Festival target is perhaps slightly more under threat for a number of reasons. But I feel that Gordon Elliott is so good at pinpointing a horse towards a race, and so strong in maintaining his opinion, that he will want to aim Envoi Allen at the Marsh Novices’ Chase – his best chance of winning.
He would have options of a Champion Hurdle route, but he has Abacadabras for that. He could go for the Arkle, but why take on Shishkin? He could step up in trip for the RSA, but he has Fury Road (amongst others) that could feature here, and again with the likes of Monkfish et al looking likely to take this route, why make it harder to get a Festival winner?
That he has met with support for the Marsh’ Novices Chase already is a sign that the wheels have been set in motion at Cullentra for a potential chasing campaign. While the bullseye on Elliott’s dartboard will be represented by the race that will suit the perfect blend of speed and stamina that Envoi Allen possesses – the Marsh Novices’ Chase.