Beijing delivers a final worth staying up for. Novak Djokovic, the 24-time Grand Slam champion seeded sixth, has put together one of the more compelling runs of the tournament, and he now stands between Alex de Minaur and the title. Here is how I see the match playing out.
Djokovic leads the head to head 3-1 against de Minaur, and the context around this final matters enormously. The Serbian arrived in Beijing under a cloud of scrutiny after a difficult US Open campaign, with plenty of people wondering whether the old sharpness was still there. He has answered that question convincingly over the course of the week, most notably by beating top seed Alexander Zverev in a grinding three-set quarterfinal. His serve has not always been at its very best, but the defensive instincts and the counterpunching that have defined his career remain fully intact, and he has simply been too awkward and too relentless for everyone he has faced.
De Minaur reached the final after Hubert Hurkacz retired from their match while trailing 6-4 3-2, so the Australian will arrive fresh and with his legs under him. That is genuinely good news for him because his entire game is built around movement, relentless consistency and the ability to take pace off the ball and redirect it. The problem is that those qualities, as impressive as they are, do not naturally expose Djokovic. What hurts Djokovic is overwhelming power that pins him behind the baseline and denies him time. De Minaur does not carry that kind of firepower, which means Djokovic should be able to settle comfortably into the long baseline exchanges that suit him perfectly.
De Minaur will absolutely make this competitive. His defence is elite and he will construct points that drag Djokovic into extended rallies. But the variety that Djokovic brings, the ability to change direction, vary pace and find angles that nobody else on tour finds, should be the difference. Djokovic has grown into this tournament with every round and looked more and more like himself as the week has gone on. With the trophy now genuinely within reach, I fully expect him to impose himself on the baseline and close this out without too much drama.
Prediction: Djokovic wins in 2 sets.
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