Ajax vs AZ Alkmaar Prediction, Betting Tips & Preview

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Ajax

vs

AZ Alkmaar

KickoffSaturday 31 October 2026, 8:00pm

VenueJohan Cruijff ArenA

CompetitionDutch Eredivisie

Ajax are flying right now, and that is not something you could have said with any confidence twelve months ago. Under Michel Sanchez they have rediscovered their swagger in attack, Tolu Arokodare is banging them in, Julian Brandt is pulling strings, and the goals are flowing freely. AZ Alkmaar, meanwhile, have hit a wall. One point from their last three league games, two clean sheets conceded, and Saturday will be their fifth match in seventeen days. The momentum is firmly in Ajax’s favour, but if you know this fixture, you know it’s never quite that simple.

The head to head record is the elephant in the room. AZ haven’t lost to Ajax in eleven meetings. That run has taken in cups, league games, different managers on both sides, and it still stands. It gives AZ a psychological edge that no amount of recent form can entirely erase, and it means even their battered confidence might harden the moment they step out at the Johan Cruijff Arena. This one has layers to it.

Ajax vs AZ Alkmaar Match Details

The fixture takes place at the Johan Cruijff Arena in Amsterdam, with Eredivisie Matchday 11 providing the backdrop. Ajax sit second in the table on 21 points, three behind leaders Feyenoord. AZ are fifth on 20 points, level with PSV Eindhoven and Twente on goal difference. Three points here would go a long way for either side in a title race that is already shaping up as a fascinating four or five way battle.

Team News

Ajax have a few bodies missing but Sanchez has enough quality to put out a strong XI. There is one potential boost on the horizon heading into the weekend.

• Kasper Dolberg is the longest term absentee, having undergone a knee operation after picking up an injury on international duty with Denmark
• Caio Henrique and Anton Gaaei are both out and not expected back until after the next international break
• Simon Adingra and Oliver Edvardsen are also unavailable
• Steven Berghuis has been absent since September 15 but Sanchez has suggested he could be available for this one
• Daley Blind returned from a back problem as a late substitute at Sparta Rotterdam and is building back to full fitness

AZ are also without key personnel at a crucial time. Ayoub Oufkir is suspended after picking up a yellow card in last weekend’s defeat to Twente, which is a real blow given how important he has been from the bench. Wouter Goes missed the Twente game through lack of match fitness, and his availability for the trip to Amsterdam is unclear. Kees Smit has been back in training after an injury on Jong Oranje duty, so he could be pushing for a place in the squad.

Predicted Lineups

Sanchez looks set to go with the side that won at Sparta, with Brandt and Arokodare the focal points of the attack. Abdellah Ouazane has earned his place after scoring against both Atalanta and Sparta, while Davy Klaassen and Oscar Gloukh will likely be among the options off the bench. Marcos Leonardo was unused at Sparta, which tells you the depth Sanchez now has up front.

Ajax expected XI: Ter Stegen; Rosa, Kehrer, Janse, Baas; Mokio, Amrabat, Brandt; Tsygankov, Arokodare, Ouazane

For AZ, the absence of Oufkir and the doubt over Goes means Leeroy Echteld will likely stick with the central defensive pairing of Hoedt and Schouten that started against Twente. Weslley Patati has been in decent nick, scoring twice in the Europa League win over Ararat Armenia, and Ro Zangelo Daal carries a threat with five league goals to his name already.

AZ expected XI: De Busser; Dijkstra, Schouten, Hoedt, Chavez; Kwakman, Koopmeiners; Patati, Byskov, Daal; Meerdink

Recent Form

Ajax were wobbling a bit in mid October. Three games without a win, capped by a 2-1 Conference League defeat at Hajduk Split, had raised a few questions. But they have responded emphatically. Wins at Groningen, against Atalanta, and then at Sparta Rotterdam have followed, with nine goals scored and only three conceded across those three matches. Brandt has been magnificent, recording six league goals and two assists, and was directly involved in both first half goals at Sparta. Arokodare added the third in stoppage time. This is a side in form.

There is still one concern though, and that is the Arena itself. Ajax have won only one of their five home league games this season, drawing three and losing one, that being a 3-1 defeat to PSV. They have conceded nine goals at home compared to just four away. The back four at the Johan Cruijff Arena has been leaky in a way the away performances simply haven’t reflected. Heerenveen came and got a 2-2. Excelsior came and got a 2-2. That pattern matters.

AZ have gone off the boil badly. A 2-0 loss at Feyenoord, a 2-2 draw at Cambuur where Meerdink rescued a point with a penalty in the 83rd minute, and then a 2-0 home defeat to Twente in which Sondre Orjasaeter scored in the 84th minute and Lucas Vennegoor of Hesselink wrapped it up in stoppage time. That is one point from nine and a real crisis of confidence. To their credit, in Europe they hammered Ararat Armenia 4-0, but the domestic form is a worry. And now they face a depleted fixture list having played five times in seventeen days.

Head-to-Head Record

Eleven games without a defeat for AZ against Ajax. That is a remarkable run and it includes some heavy results. The most striking of those was the 6-0 KNVB Cup win in Alkmaar back in January, a scoreline that matched Ajax’s heaviest ever defeat in professional football. Ajax’s last win in this fixture was a 2-0 KNVB Cup semi-final victory on the 3rd of March in 2022, which is now well over four years ago.

It would be too easy to say that January result tells us everything about where these clubs stand. The Ajax that took that 6-0 hammering had Fred Grim in the dugout and a squad in crisis. Marc Andre ter Stegen was not in goal. Brandt was not pulling the strings. Arokodare was not leading the line. This is a fundamentally different team under a fundamentally different manager. The head to head still deserves respect, but context matters enormously here.

Key Stats

• Ajax have scored 29 league goals in 10 games this season. AZ have scored 20
• Ajax have conceded nine goals in five home league games but only four in five away games this season
• AZ have kept just three clean sheets in 10 league games and have failed to score in two of their last three
• AZ are unbeaten in 11 meetings against Ajax, with the last Ajax win coming over four years ago

Ajax vs AZ Alkmaar Betting Tips

The head to head record makes it impossible to write AZ off entirely, and Ajax’s leaky home record means goals at both ends feel likely. But the form, the squad depth, and the individual quality on show for Ajax points firmly in one direction. Here is how I see the markets shaping up.

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) Prediction

Yes. Ajax have conceded in every single home league game this season, and despite AZ’s attacking struggles of late, Meerdink and Daal carry enough of a threat to test what has been a porous home defence. Even without Oufkir, AZ have the quality to nick one. Back both teams to score.

Over and Under Goals Prediction

Over 2.5 goals looks the right call here. Ajax are averaging nearly three goals per home game in the league and AZ have been involved in plenty of open matches themselves. The visitors may be fatigued and short of players but they have not been a team that shuts up shop. Goals are very likely on both sides of this one.

Correct Score Prediction

Ajax 2-1 AZ Alkmaar. The home side should have too much firepower for a tired and depleted AZ, but the visitors’ record in this fixture and Ajax’s habit of shipping at the Arena makes a one goal margin the most likely outcome. Brandt and Arokodare to do the damage, AZ to pull one back.

First Goalscorer Prediction

Tolu Arokodare. The Nigerian striker has five league goals already this season and scored in stoppage time at Sparta last weekend. He is clearly sharp and in confidence, and with Brandt creating chances at will, Arokodare is the man most likely to get on the end of something early. The loan from Wolves is working out very nicely indeed.

Bet Builder Tip

Ajax winning with both sides scoring fits the pattern of their home games perfectly, and Arokodare as the opener adds real value to what already looks a sensible double.

Final Match Prediction

Ajax 2-1 AZ Alkmaar. The head to head record is a legitimate reason to pause, but the gap in current form, fitness, and squad quality is significant enough that Ajax have to be favoured here. Sanchez has built something genuine at the Arena this season, and Brandt is the kind of player who changes games. AZ will cause some problems, because they always do in this fixture, but a tired side missing Oufkir and possibly Goes should not be able to contain a full strength Ajax attack across ninety minutes.

A narrow home win at 2-1 feels right. If that scoreline lands, it would be Ajax’s first victory over AZ since March 2022, which would mean a lot to a fanbase that has endured some very difficult times in between. The Eredivisie title race stays tight either way, but three points here would put Ajax right back in contention at the top of the table.

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