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Aston Villa
FulhamThere is something genuinely compelling about this fixture right now. Aston Villa are hitting that autumn gear that Emery seems to find every single year, and Fulham under Alvaro Arbeloa are quietly putting a dreadful early run behind them. Two sides who have both just been knocked out of the EFL Cup in midweek, both with a point to prove in the league, meeting at Villa Park on a Saturday evening. That is proper Premier League football.
What makes it even more interesting is the contrast in trajectories. Villa have gone from a sluggish August to genuine top half contenders, beating Man City just last weekend. Fulham have gone from one of those sides that looks like it might get dragged into a relegation scrap to a team with back to back league wins under their belt. This one is not as one sided as the table might suggest, but the home side go in as clear favourites for good reason.
This Premier League fixture takes place at Villa Park, one of the great old grounds in English football, in front of what should be a noisy home crowd after last weekend’s result against the champions. Both clubs arrive off the back of EFL Cup fourth round exits in midweek, which adds a layer of motivation to get back to winning ways on the domestic stage where it really counts.
Emery has a few bodies missing but nothing that should derail his plans too drastically. Fulham have a couple of selection doubts to navigate as well.
Emery will almost certainly go back to the XI that started the win over Man City. That means Matty Cash, Victor Lindelof and Pau Torres in the back line, with Boubacar Kamara and Joao Gomes shielding them. Johan Manzambi and John McGinn wide, Alysson tucking in, and Nicolas Jackson leading the line after his brace last weekend.
For Fulham, Affengruber slots back into the centre of defence alongside Calvin Bassey now he is fit again. Sander Berge and Tyrese Charles in the middle of the park, with Oscar Bobb, Joshua King and Alex Iwobi operating behind Garcia in attack. Bernd Leno in goal, with Castagne at right back and Robinson on the left.
Villa’s numbers in October and November under Emery are almost freakishly good. Eight wins from their last ten matches in those two months tells you this is not a coincidence, it is a pattern. They have picked up ten points from four league games in this current run, and beating Man City at home to end their unbeaten start to the season was a genuine statement. Nicolas Jackson has been the catalyst, with seven goals in eleven appearances since arriving at the club and four in his last four league games alone.
The midweek cup exit at Bournemouth, a 3-0 defeat, looks worse on paper than it was in reality. Emery rotated heavily, which is a sign of a manager comfortable with his squad depth and focused on the league. You do not read too much into a cup game with a changed lineup. The seven game unbeaten run in all competitions that preceded it was the real story.
Fulham’s form is a tale of two halves. A winless six game stretch to start the season had questions being asked of Arbeloa quite early in his tenure, but back to back 1-0 wins over Hull and Coventry have given the squad a lift and some belief. Oscar Bobb’s late winner at Coventry last Saturday was a clever, composed finish and showed exactly the kind of quality Fulham need from their attacking players. The cup exit at home to Crystal Palace on Wednesday was frustrating, particularly given Arbeloa’s own admission that his side created three or four clear chances and could not take any of them. A wasteful evening, but perhaps a manageable one if the squad can stay focused on the league.
The recent head to head record is heavily weighted in Villa’s favour. Fulham have won just one of their last seven meetings, with six defeats in that run. Remarkably, that one victory was the most recent encounter between the sides, a 1-0 home win for Fulham back in April courtesy of a Ryan Sessegnon goal. Sessegnon, of course, is suspended for this one.
Emery’s personal record against Fulham as a manager is almost comical in its dominance. Eight wins from nine Premier League meetings, averaging nearly three points per game against them. Only Guardiola and Pochettino, both with perfect records, can better that among managers who have faced Fulham five or more times. That context matters.
Villa look the value here across most markets. They are in form, at home, with a striker firing, a manager who knows how to set up against this specific opponent, and a Fulham side that is still finding its feet under a new head coach. The away side have shown defensive resilience recently but their goalscoring threat is fragile right now, and Garcia’s run of form is a real concern for Arbeloa.
Fulham tend to be disciplined but they will be under sustained pressure here and that can lead to niggly fouls in defensive positions. Expect a moderate card count, with Fulham’s midfielders most likely to pick up a booking as they attempt to disrupt Villa’s rhythm in the centre of the park. Back over three cards in the game.
This is a tricky one. Villa are in great attacking form but Fulham’s last two league wins have both been 1-0, and Garcia cannot buy a goal right now. The Cottagers’ attack looks blunt enough that you could see Villa keeping a clean sheet here. BTTS No looks the call.
Villa have been productive at home and with Jackson in the kind of form he is in, expect them to find the net more than once. If Fulham fail to score, which is a realistic possibility given their recent output, the game could settle at two or three goals total. Over 2.5 goals is the pick, driven largely by Villa’s attacking threat.
Villa like to dominate possession at Villa Park and work the wide areas, which generates corners. Fulham will also need to try to create from set pieces if Garcia is struggling to make things happen in open play. Over 9.5 corners looks achievable in a game where Villa will be pushing forward and Fulham will be defending deep for long stretches.
Nicolas Jackson at a generous price is the pick. Four goals in four league games, starting up front with good support around him, against a Fulham defence that has shipped goals when pushed. He is the obvious threat and the form says back him with confidence.
Villa to win 2-0. Jackson gets on the scoresheet, Villa control large parts of the game, and Fulham’s goalscoring troubles continue without Sessegnon and with Garcia out of form. A comfortable home win that does not need to be anything more dramatic than that.
| Market | Selection |
|---|---|
| Match Result | Aston Villa to Win |
| First Goalscorer | Nicolas Jackson |
| Both Teams To Score | No |
Villa’s dominance, Jackson’s form, and Fulham’s current inability to find the net all point in the same direction and combine nicely in a single builder.
This has comfortable Villa win written all over it. They are peaking at the right time of year, they have a striker in brilliant form, and they face a Fulham side that has shown real defensive improvement but very little attacking punch. Arbeloa will set up to be hard to beat, but against this Villa front line in this form, at Villa Park, that will only get his side so far.
Emery knows this opponent better than almost any manager in the league and his record against them speaks for itself. Fulham’s two recent cup exits will not define their season, but getting turned over here would be a real test of Arbeloa’s squad. Prediction: Aston Villa 2-0 Fulham.
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