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Udinese
RomaCan Udinese finally end their barren run in front of goal, or will Roma’s firepower prove too much for a side that looks genuinely short of confidence right now? That is the question hanging over this fixture as the Giallorossi travel to Friuli looking to close the gap on the Serie A summit. This preview breaks down the form, the team news, the stats and the best bets for what should be a fascinating top versus bottom clash.
Kosta Runjaic’s side sit 17th in the table and have not won since August. Roma are chasing Inter Milan and Lazio at the top. On paper this looks like a mismatch, but football has a habit of making you look foolish when you write teams off. Let’s dig in.
The fixture takes place at the Bluenergy Stadium in Udine, the home of Le Zebrette, in what is the 10th round of the Serie A season. Roma come into this one as clear favourites and will be hoping a potential stumble for Inter in the Milan derby hands them an even bigger opportunity to close down the leaders by the weekend’s end.
Udinese are dealing with a handful of injury concerns that will test Runjaic’s already limited options, while Roma arrive without several key players of their own despite looking relatively strong on paper.
Runjaic is likely to stick with the shape that at least kept a clean sheet at Parma, even if the attack remains blunt. Keinan Davis leads the line and came close to breaking his drought midweek, so there is reason to think the gaffer keeps faith with him. Nicolo Zaniolo and Jurgen Ekkelenkamp should provide support from slightly deeper positions, though neither has been especially productive so far this term.
For Roma, the absence of Dybala and Svilar forces Gasperini into changes he would rather not be making. Gollini steps in between the sticks, while Matias Soule and Rodrigo Mora support the prolific Donyell Malen in attack. Mauro Icardi is not in the picture here. Niccolo Pisilli adds another goal threat from midfield. The XI still looks formidable despite the absentees.
Udinese’s form over the past month makes for deeply uncomfortable reading. They have failed to score in three consecutive Serie A games, losing 3-0 to Lecce, 2-0 to AC Milan and then drawing a blank against Parma. In four league matches they have managed just one goal. The heroics of Maduka Okoye against Parma, including a penalty save, were genuinely impressive, but you cannot survive long in Serie A if you are not troubling the opposition at the other end. Runjaic’s job looks precarious and the pressure is mounting with every passing week.
Roma’s story is much more positive, though Gasperini will have some concerns of his own. The 4-2 win over Cagliari at the Olimpico was vital but it was not comfortable viewing for long stretches. The Giallorossi were behind after 10 minutes and were level at 2-2 with 10 minutes left before Mora and Malen rescued the three points. That followed a 3-3 draw at Napoli, which means Roma have conceded five goals across their last two league outings. Gasperini’s side are lethal going forward but the back four has some questions to answer.
Still, the attacking output is remarkable. Malen has seven goals in eight appearances and is breathing down the necks of the Capocannoniere leaders. Soule and Pisilli have both chipped in with three goals apiece and Dybala, despite being absent this weekend, has four assists already. This is a side that can hurt you from multiple angles, which makes them a nightmare opponent for a defence that has already shipped goals freely this season.
Roma have generally had the upper hand in recent meetings with Udinese, particularly away from home. The Giallorossi travel well and have the quality to impose themselves regardless of the venue. Udinese have occasionally nicked a result when the visitors have been below their best, but Roma arriving in this kind of attacking form and with a title to chase makes that far less likely.
There is a reasonable amount of historical evidence to suggest goals at the Bluenergy Stadium when these two meet. Roma’s tendency to score freely and Udinese’s struggles to keep things tight defensively when under pressure from quality opposition means this fixture has the profile of one that produces goals at both ends, even if Udinese’s current attacking drought muddies the water slightly.
The angle here is clear. Roma are the team in form, the team with firepower and the team with a genuine reason to push hard for three points given the title race dynamics. Udinese are low on confidence, low on goals and short on fit bodies. The smart money is on Roma winning and winning with goals, though the visitors’ recent defensive generosity means writing off a Udinese contribution entirely feels premature.
A 3-1 Roma win feels like the right call. Udinese’s defensive frailties should allow the visitors to rack up goals, but Roma’s own leakiness means Keinan Davis or one of his teammates could finally end that scoring drought and grab a consolation. It fits the pattern of how both sides have been performing.
Yes, back both teams to score. Roma have conceded in each of their last two league games and Udinese, for all their attacking struggles, showed enough against Parma to suggest they can create opportunities when Davis is sharp. A goal threat is there for the hosts and Roma’s back four has been generous enough to give it some juice.
Donyell Malen is the pick. Seven goals in eight games, leading Roma’s charts by a country mile and coming into this one with serious momentum after his late strike sealed the win over Cagliari. He tends to get into the right areas and against a shaky Udinese back line, the chances should come. He is the obvious focal point and well worth backing to open the scoring.
Expect a card or two in this one. Udinese will be frustrated, likely chasing the game and under pressure from a Roma side with the quality to dominate possession. When teams are stretched and desperate for something, midfield and defensive players tend to make rash challenges. Over 3.5 cards looks a reasonable call given the pressure the hosts will be under and the physical nature of Serie A football in these kinds of fixtures.
Back over 9.5 corners. Roma push forward with intent and will be looking to work the ball wide through Molina and Wesley on the flanks. Udinese, when defending deep, tend to invite pressure and concede corners at a decent clip. With the Giallorossi likely to dominate large periods of this game, the corner count should build nicely throughout the 90 minutes.
Over 2.5 goals looks nailed on here. Roma have scored four in their last league game and conceded five across the last two. Udinese are desperate for a goal and will have to commit forward at some stage. The underlying profile of this match points firmly towards goals, and the value is on the over rather than backing a cagey, tight affair that simply does not fit either team’s recent numbers.
| Market | Selection |
|---|---|
| First Goalscorer | Donyell Malen |
| Both Teams To Score | Yes |
| Over 2.5 Goals | Over 2.5 |
Malen scoring, both sides finding the net and the total exceeding 2.5 all point in the same direction and reinforce each other nicely given the form of both teams heading into this one.
Roma win this one and they win it with goals. Gasperini’s side have every motivation to push hard with Inter facing a tricky derby and the title race very much alive. Udinese have heart and Okoye in goal, but the goals have dried up badly and the pressure on Runjaic is palpable. That kind of atmosphere rarely produces the performance needed to topple a Roma side this hungry.
The prediction is Roma to win 3-1. Malen leads the way, Udinese grab a deserved consolation through Davis or one of the supporting cast, but the three points head back to the capital with Gasperini’s men eyeing the top of the table with renewed belief.
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