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Celta Vigo
JuventusThere is a real contrast in European pedigree when these two clubs share a pitch. Juventus, serial winners of the Scudetto and two time continental champions, are operating in the Europa League after a dismal end to last season saw them slip out of Champions League contention. Celta Vigo, on the other hand, are a club that flirts with Europe rather than inhabits it, turning up every few seasons and occasionally causing a real stir. Last term they went all the way to the quarter finals of this very competition, and Claudio Giraldez has built something worth watching in Galicia. The question is whether Balaidos can be the fortress it was during that run, or whether Luciano Spalletti’s side are simply too much quality to hold.
Juventus look impressive on paper but they are carrying some real inconsistency into this trip. Five goals against NEC on matchday one looks great in a table. One win from their last four in Serie A does not. Spalletti was actually sent off after the full time whistle in Sardinia at the weekend, which tells you the tension bubbling inside this squad right now. Celta lost their first Europa League group stage game to Omonia in Cyprus, but they have kept back to back clean sheets since and there is a steeliness about them at home that the numbers back up.
This Europa League league phase fixture takes place at Estadio Balaidos in Vigo, one of the more atmospheric grounds in Spanish football when the home crowd gets behind the team. It is a proper European night in the northwest of Spain, and Celta showed last season across seven home games in this competition that Balaidos is a genuinely tough venue to visit. Juventus arrive as the higher ranked club historically but they are not travelling as favourites in the comfortable sense of that word.
Spalletti has a real headache with his squad depth right now. Five games in two weeks means rotation is coming, and the injury list is not helping him pick his strongest side.
Spalletti looks set to give Randal Kolo Muani the nod up front despite Nick Woltemade being an option. Kolo Muani scored and hit the woodwork against Cagliari and has been directly involved in eight goals across his last eight European matches, so it would take a brave manager to drop him right now. Lloyd Kelly slots back into the defence alongside Federico Gatti. The midfield will look a little makeshift without Locatelli and Thuram, but Kerim Alajbegovic impressed against NEC and Juventus have enough going forward to hurt most sides.
Giraldez will likely stick with Ferran Jutgla leading the line for Celta, though Borja Iglesias is pushing for minutes with a solid European pedigree of his own. The return of Aspas to the squad gives Celta an experienced option off the bench if they need a goal. In midfield, Ilaix Moriba brings energy and Fran Beltran provides the composure to set the tempo. The home side will be compact and hard to play through.
Celta’s domestic form has been patchy to say the least. Just one La Liga win this season suggests a team still finding their feet at home in Spain’s top flight, and the opening Europa League defeat to Omonia in Cyprus underlined that vulnerability on the road. But look at what they have done since. Back to back clean sheets in La Liga, including holding Elche to a goalless draw last weekend, shows a defensive solidity that is easy to miss when you glance at a league position. This is a team that tends to reserve something extra for European nights at Balaidos.
Juventus won their opener against NEC 5-0, which sounds emphatic, but they only needed 11 shots to do it. That is not ruthlessness, that is efficiency on one particular night. Strip that result away and the picture is messier. One win from four in Serie A, a 1-1 draw at Cagliari where they needed a Kolo Muani goal to salvage a point, and a manager who ended up in the referee’s notebook at full time for his behaviour on the touchline. There is a tension about this Juve side that was not there last term when they were pushing for the top four, and away from Turin the struggles are even more pronounced. They won just one of five Champions League away games last season.
That away record is worth holding onto when you assess this fixture. Celta at Balaidos in a European night is a different proposition to Celta anywhere else. Juventus away from home in Europe have shown real vulnerability. The form guide does not scream comfortable Juve win.
These clubs have not met for 26 years, which tells you something about the very different orbits they normally occupy. The last time they shared a pitch was in the UEFA Cup, and Celta made a statement that night, winning 4-0 at Balaidos in the second leg to go through 4-1 on aggregate. Whether that has any bearing on Thursday night is debatable given how much has changed at both clubs since then, but it is a reminder that Celta on home soil in Europe can be a very different beast to the one you track through a La Liga table.
With so little recent history between the sides, this one genuinely is hard to call on head to head evidence alone. What we do know is that Estadio Balaidos was a fortress in last season’s Europa League run, with four wins from seven home games in the league phase and knockout rounds. That is the more meaningful number heading into this one.
The betting angle here is not straightforward. Juve have the quality and the motivation to get points on the board early in the league phase, but their away form in Europe is a genuine concern and they are walking into a ground that gave plenty of strong clubs problems last season. I am not backing a comfortable Juve win. I think this is tighter than the matchday one scorelines suggested, and there is value in acknowledging that Celta will make them work hard.
Juventus have too much firepower to come away empty handed, and Kolo Muani’s European form in particular suggests they will find the net at least once. But Celta will get something from this game at home. I am going with a 1-2 Juventus win, the type of narrow away victory that flatters neither side but reflects the fine margins in this one.
Yes. Celta have kept consecutive clean sheets domestically but they were in against NEC, Juventus were not. The Bianconeri’s attack, even in patchy domestic form, is good enough to find a way through, and Celta at Balaidos in a European night have enough going forward to threaten a Juventus back line missing several key men. BTTS looks a solid call here.
Over 9.5 corners appeals in this one. Juventus will push for goals and they tend to get bodies forward even when chasing a game, while Celta like to work the wide areas through Galan and Rueda. Two sides that use the flanks and press for results tends to produce a healthy corners count, and a tight, competitive fixture in a Europa League atmosphere usually sees both sides looking to force set pieces.
Over 3.5 cards looks worth a look. Spalletti was sent off after the Cagliari game, which speaks to a feisty atmosphere around this squad, and Celta in European home games with something to prove tend to be physical and competitive. A European night, a high stakes fixture and two sides with a point to make is a recipe for the referee to stay busy.
| Market | Selection |
|---|---|
| Both Teams To Score | Yes |
| Juventus To Win | Juventus |
| Total Cards | Over 3.5 |
A competitive Juventus win with both sides scoring and a feisty card count fits perfectly with the tension around this fixture and the quality gap that just about edges it for the visitors.
Juventus should edge this, but anyone expecting a repeat of the 5-0 against NEC is in for a reality check. Celta at Balaidos in European football is a very different challenge, and Spalletti’s squad is stretched thin across a brutal run of fixtures. The Bianconeri will need Kolo Muani at his sharp European best, and he has shown often enough that he can deliver on that stage.
Celta will give them a proper game and will score, but I think Juventus have just enough to get the three points. Call it 1-2 to Juve, a grind of a win that keeps them top of the league phase table but leaves plenty of questions unanswered about whether they can sustain this across a full European campaign.