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Czech Republic
CroatiaThere is something genuinely intriguing about this one. Two nations who know each other well, who have history in competitive football, meeting in a group that most neutrals expect England and Spain to dominate. That framing actually gives this fixture a fascinating edge. Czech Republic and Croatia are both scrapping for relevance at the top table of European football, and a defeat here could leave either side staring at an early relegation battle before the autumn is even out. Neither can afford to be loose with their points.
Croatia bring genuine pedigree to this fixture. A Nations League final appearance in 2022-23 and a last-32 showing at the 2026 World Cup tell you they remain a serious outfit. The Czechs, meanwhile, are back in League A after earning promotion and will want to show they belong here. Their World Cup group stage exit, picking up just a single point, raised doubts. This is their chance to answer some of them on home soil.
This UEFA Nations League Group 3 League A fixture takes place at Czech Republic’s home ground, with both sides needing a positive result to get their campaign moving in the right direction. The Czechs have back-to-back home games to open the month, making this an important opportunity to bank points before a brutal away run to Spain and England in October.
The biggest change to the Czech setup coming into this campaign is the retirement of Patrik Schick following the World Cup. He was their talisman for years, so his absence leaves a real void in the final third. Beyond that, the Czechs look relatively settled heading into this one.
Czech Republic head coach Santi Denia looks set to go with a back three and wing backs pushing forward to provide width. Hlozek and Sulc should operate in behind or alongside each other in the forward areas, with Kral and Sadilek providing the engine room in central midfield.
Czech Republic: Kovar; Vitik, Hranac, Krejci; Coufal, Kral, Cerv, Sadilek, Karabec; Sulc, Hlozek
Slaven Bilic, back for a second stint with Croatia, is not expected to do anything radical with his selection. Modric and Kovacic are nailed on starters in the middle of the park, with Sucic and Baturina offering more dynamic energy around them. Budimir leads the line, and with Gvardiol bombing forward from left back, Croatia have plenty of attacking threat from multiple areas.
Croatia: Livakovic; Stanisic, Sutalo, Pongracic, Gvardiol; Modric, Kovacic; Vlasic, Sucic, Baturina; Budimir
Czech Republic’s most recent competitive action came at the 2026 World Cup, where their group stage showing was deeply disappointing. One point from three games, including a 1-1 draw with South Africa, left them bottom of their group and heading home early. The only bright note since then was a 3-1 friendly win over Guatemala in June, which is hardly the kind of form that instils confidence ahead of a Nations League opener against quality opposition. They are still searching for a clear identity without Schick leading the line.
Croatia’s summer told a slightly more encouraging story. They got out of their World Cup group and made it to the last 32 before Portugal ended their run. That is a decent return, and while they fell short of the later stages, it confirms they are still operating at a competitive level internationally. Bilic returning to the dugout feels like a calculated move to steady the ship and tap into some nostalgic goodwill within the squad.
Form in this type of competition is always hard to read in the opening game because both sides are reset after a summer of friendly football and tournament action. What you can judge is momentum and confidence, and on that basis Croatia feel like the side carrying more of both. They have a settled spine, an in-form striker and a manager who knows the players and the expectations well.
The record between these two sides tells a pretty clear story. In six previous meetings, Czech Republic have not won once. Three draws and three defeats is the full picture, and that is a mental weight the home side have to carry into this fixture regardless of how confident they feel about their own performances.
The most recent clash came in a 2026 World Cup qualifier in October 2025, finishing 0-0. That was a tight, cagey affair with neither side willing to open up too much. Before that meeting, Croatia had the better of the contests, and the pattern of narrow scorelines suggests this group fixture is unlikely to be a goalfest. When these two meet, things tend to stay tight and competitive into the final stages.
The head-to-head record is doing a lot of talking here. Czech Republic have never beaten Croatia, they are hosting this game at a pivotal moment in their Nations League campaign, and they are missing their best striker. Croatia, with Budimir firing and Bilic freshly reinvigorated in the dugout, look the stronger outfit from top to bottom. The value is in backing the visitors to nick this one, potentially in a tight, low-scoring game that reflects the pattern of their previous encounters.
Given the history between these sides, the cautious nature of how these games tend to unfold, and the quality Croatia have across the pitch, a 1-2 away win feels right. Czech Republic will likely create enough to get on the scoresheet at home, but Croatia’s clinical edge should see them find two goals across 90 minutes.
Under 2.5 goals is the call here. Four of the last six meetings between these sides have been low-scoring affairs, and with this being an early Nations League fixture where defensive shape tends to take priority, neither gaffer will be setting up to play open football. Stay under the goals line.
Under 9.5 corners is worth considering. When these sides have met before, the games have been measured and controlled rather than frantic and end-to-end. Croatia will likely look to keep the ball and press when they lose it, which limits the kind of wide, frenzied play that generates high corner counts.
Over 2.5 cards is a reasonable shout. Nations League group games carry significant stakes and Czech Republic at home, desperate to avoid another damaging result, are likely to make some firm tackles in midfield as they try to disrupt Modric and Kovacic. A tight contest with something to play for usually produces a few bookings, and this fixture looks like a textbook example of that.
Ante Budimir is the pick here. Five goals in seven games for Osasuna this season tells you he is in the kind of form where he turns half chances into goals. He leads the line for Croatia, holds the ball up well and gets into the box at the right moments. If Croatia find their range on the break, Budimir is the man most likely to finish the move.
| Market | Selection |
|---|---|
| Match Result | Croatia to Win |
| Total Goals | Under 2.5 Goals |
| First Goalscorer | Ante Budimir |
A Croatia win in a tight game with Budimir breaking the deadlock fits neatly with everything the head-to-head record and current form is pointing toward.
Czech Republic will give this a real go at home. The crowd will be behind them, there is something to prove after the World Cup disappointment, and Hlozek is capable of producing a moment of quality on any given night. But history and current form both point in one direction, and that direction is Croatia.
Bilic’s side have too much quality in the middle of the park, a striker arriving in blistering form, and a psychological edge built over six previous meetings. This should be tight, competitive and decided by fine margins, but Croatia edge it. Final score: Czech Republic 1-2 Croatia.
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