Georgia vs Ukraine Prediction, Betting Tips & Preview

Featured Offer

bet365

Bet £10 Get £30 in Free Bets

Claim Offer →

Min deposit requirement. Free Bets are paid as Bet Credits and are available for use upon settlement of qualifying bets. Min odds, bet and payment method exclusions apply. Returns exclude Bet Credits stake. Registration required. Time limits and T&Cs apply. GambleAware.org #ad

Georgia

vs

Ukraine

KickoffMonday 28 September 2026, 5:00pm

VenueBoris Paichadze Dinamo Arena

CompetitionUEFA Nations League

There is something compelling about this fixture beyond just the football. Georgia are a side in genuine transition, still buzzing with the energy of that Euro 2024 run but now adjusting to life under a brand new manager following a heartbreaking late loss in their opening Nations League game. Ukraine, meanwhile, are quietly building something under Andrea Maldera and arrived in Tbilisi with a win already banked. Two sides with something to prove, in a group that is far from settled.

The context makes this one genuinely interesting. Georgia need a response, Ukraine need to prove Friday was not a one off. The crowd in Tbilisi will be right behind the hosts, and Ramaz Svanadze will be desperate to make the right impression on his debut in the dugout. This has all the ingredients for a tight, tense contest where fine margins decide everything.

Georgia vs Ukraine Match Details

This Nations League group stage fixture takes place at the Boris Paichadze Dinamo Arena in Tbilisi, Georgia. It is the second game of the international break for both sides and a crucial one given how the group standings could shift significantly depending on the result. Georgia host this one in front of their own supporters, which matters in a fixture this finely balanced.

Team News

Georgia have no fresh injury concerns coming out of the Northern Ireland game despite the emotional toll of that 99th minute defeat. The bigger question is whether new boss Svanadze makes changes on his first night in charge or keeps things consistent.

• Giorgi Mamardashvili is expected to start in goal and is not under any threat for his spot
• Khvicha Kvaratskhelia will lead the attack and is closing in on the all time Georgia scoring record
• No suspensions for the hosts
• Oleksandr Nazarenko is suspended for Ukraine after picking up two yellow cards in just 33 minutes as a substitute against Hungary
• Ukraine are otherwise fit and could name a near identical starting XI to the one that beat Hungary
• Danylo Sikan and Georgiy Sudakov are both expected to feature after strong showings on Friday

Predicted Lineups

Svanadze faces an interesting decision on his first night in charge. Going with the same XI that was so close to earning a point against Northern Ireland makes sense for continuity, but a new manager often wants to put his own stamp on things immediately. The expectation is that Georgia line up in something like a 3-4-2-1 shape with Mamardashvili behind a back three of Goglichidze, Dvali and Lochoshvili, Kvaratskhelia and Mikautadze pushing forward.

Ukraine lost Nazarenko to suspension but otherwise Maldera has little reason to tinker. Riznyk impressed between the sticks in Budapest and keeps his place. Sikan leads the line again with Sudakov pulling strings behind him. The shape gives Ukraine defensive solidity while still carrying a threat on the counter, which is exactly what you would want going into a hostile away fixture.

Recent Form

Georgia came into this Nations League campaign on a decent run of four games unbeaten through a series of friendlies, drawing two and winning two. That positive momentum made Friday’s late defeat even harder to stomach. Shea Charles scoring in the 99th minute to snatch a win for Northern Ireland was as cruel as it gets, and it also cost Willy Sagnol his job. It is worth noting that before those friendlies, Georgia had been through a gruelling World Cup qualifying campaign where they suffered four consecutive defeats in a group containing Spain, the eventual world champions. So the resilience is there, but consistency has been the question mark.

Their Nations League record in recent times is not pretty either. They have gone five group matches without a win, with their last group stage victory coming against Albania back in September 2024. That is a run that needs to end, and Svanadze will know it.

Ukraine look sharp. Maldera has now won consecutive games since taking charge, and the 1-0 victory over Hungary was arguably more impressive than the scoreline suggests. Hungary had 17 shots in that game and Ukraine still kept them out, which tells you something about the defensive organisation Maldera has instilled. Sikan got the goal, Sudakov got the assist, and the visitors look like a side with a clear identity right now. That is a dangerous combination when you are heading to an opponent who is still finding their feet under new management.

Head-to-Head Record

The Nations League head to head between these two sides already has a bit of history, and it favours Ukraine. In the 2024-25 edition of the competition, the two sides met twice and Ukraine came away unbeaten, winning at home and drawing away in Tbilisi. That away draw is the most relevant data point here because it confirms that Georgia can hold their own on home soil against this opponent, but also that Ukraine know how to keep a clean sheet in this fixture.

Ukraine have not lost to Georgia in recent competitive meetings, and that record will give Maldera’s players genuine confidence heading into the game. Georgia will know they need to break that pattern if they want to get their Nations League campaign back on track.

Key Stats

• Georgia have won just one of their last six Nations League group stage matches, with that win coming against Albania in September 2024
• Ukraine kept a clean sheet against Hungary despite facing 17 shots, underlining the defensive solidity Maldera has brought
• Ukraine are unbeaten in their two previous Nations League meetings with Georgia, winning one and drawing one

Georgia vs Ukraine Betting Tips

This one sets up as a tight and cagey affair. Georgia are at home and will have a bounce from the new manager factor, but they are stepping into this game off the back of a morale sapping late defeat and a poor recent Nations League record. Ukraine are organised, have a clear plan and have already shown they can win ugly. I am not expecting a high scoring thriller here. I am expecting two sides being cautious, both aware that a point away from home would not be the worst result for Ukraine, and that Georgia desperately need not to lose again.

First Goalscorer Prediction

Danylo Sikan is the pick here. The Anderlecht striker scored the winner against Hungary and looks sharp heading into this one. He leads the line for Ukraine with purpose and in a low scoring game, the first goal is likely to be a decisive one. Sikan has the form and the confidence to nick it early.

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) Prediction

No to BTTS. Both sides have shown defensive solidity in their respective openers, and with the cautious nature of this fixture, I would not be surprised to see at least one clean sheet. Georgia could easily go the game without scoring if Ukraine sit deep and stay organised, which they have proven they are very capable of doing.

Cards Prediction

Over 3.5 cards looks a fair shout here. International football at this level, with a passionate home crowd and a new Georgia manager desperate for a result, tends to produce a feisty atmosphere. Ukraine already saw a player sent off in their last game, and with Georgia needing to press and win back possession throughout, the card count should tick upwards as the game progresses.

Correct Score Prediction

A 1-1 draw feels like the most likely outcome. Georgia will find something going forward with Kvaratskhelia capable of producing a moment of quality, but Ukraine have enough to threaten at the other end through Sikan. Both sides take something from it, and the group stays tight heading into the next round of fixtures.

Corners Prediction

Under 9.5 corners is the call. When games are tight and both sides are well organised defensively, you tend to get fewer corners because teams are not getting into dangerous crossing positions. Ukraine defended deep and compact against Hungary, and Georgia may find themselves doing similar as the game gets stretched. Expect a relatively low corner count throughout.

Over and Under Goals Prediction

Under 2.5 goals. Both managers will prioritise not losing here, Ukraine’s defensive record against Hungary was exceptional, and Georgia under a new boss may be conservative in their approach. This feels like a one goal game, possibly two at most. Back the under.

Bet Builder Tip

If you believe in the 1-1, then both teams scoring and a card heavy game in a tense Tbilisi atmosphere ties together nicely into a single builder with genuine logic behind each selection.

Final Match Prediction

Georgia will be fired up. New manager, home crowd, point to prove after a gut punch of a defeat on Friday. Svanadze will want an immediate reaction and Kvaratskhelia is more than capable of delivering one. But Ukraine have quality, defensive organisation, and a psychological edge from their recent meetings with this opponent.

The 1-1 draw feels right. Georgia nick a goal through a moment of individual quality, Ukraine equalise through Sikan or someone else finding space on the break, and both sides settle for a point. It keeps the group open and reflects just how evenly matched these two sides are right now.

Featured Offer

bet365

Bet £10 Get £30 in Free Bets

Claim Offer →

Min deposit requirement. Free Bets are paid as Bet Credits and are available for use upon settlement of qualifying bets. Min odds, bet and payment method exclusions apply. Returns exclude Bet Credits stake. Registration required. Time limits and T&Cs apply. GambleAware.org #ad