Hajduk Split vs Ajax Prediction, Betting Tips & Preview

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Hajduk Split

vs

Ajax

KickoffThursday 15 October 2026, 5:45pm

VenueGradski stadion Poljud

CompetitionUEFA Conference League

Eight wins from their last nine matches. That is the kind of form that gets a crowd buzzing, and Stadion Poljud is going to be rocking when Hajduk Split open their Conference League group stage campaign. This is a club that has waited nearly sixteen years to be back at this level, and they are arriving with genuine momentum rather than just good intentions. The question is whether Ajax, a side with a rich European pedigree but some wobbles of their own creeping in, can come to the Dalmatian coast and spoil the party.

Ajax have their own number worth paying attention to. Unbeaten in six competitive away matches this season, winning five of them and scoring at least twice in every single one. That tells you the attack is clicking on the road even when the results at home have been more complicated. These two sides have not met since the 1994 to 95 Champions League quarter finals, over three decades ago. There is history here, and now there is a fresh chapter to write.

Hajduk Split vs Ajax Match Details

This UEFA Conference League group stage opener takes place at Stadion Poljud in Split, Croatia. It is Hajduk’s first appearance at this stage of a major European competition in well over a decade, and Ajax make the trip as the higher profile side on paper, though their presence in the Conference League rather than the Champions League or Europa League tells its own story about where the Amsterdam club currently finds itself.

Team News

Both sides are heading into this one with a few names missing from the squad, though neither gaffer is looking at a crisis situation.

• Kasper Dolberg is out for the season after a cruciate ligament tear, a significant blow for Ajax’s attacking options
• Caio Henrique is absent with a hip injury sustained in the same match that ended Dolberg’s campaign
• Daley Blind is sidelined with a back problem, adding to Ajax’s defensive concerns
• Steven Berghuis and Anton Gaaei are also unavailable for the trip to Croatia
• Simon Adingra and Aaron Bouwman are back in contention for Ajax after coming off the bench against NEC Nijmegen
• Roko Brajkovic remains out for Hajduk Split following knee surgery earlier in the summer, with Abdoulie Sanyang stepping in to fill that role
• Ivica Ivusic and Adrion Pajaziti are also unavailable for the hosts
• Marko Livaja is back for Hajduk Split, and the veteran forward’s return is a timely boost ahead of their biggest home night in years

Predicted Lineups

Gonzalo Garcia looks set to go with a shape that has served Hajduk well domestically. Sanyang slots in comfortably after a regular run of starts, and Livaja’s return could see him lead the line. The home side have been scoring first with impressive regularity, so expect a setup designed to press high and get on the front foot quickly at Poljud.

Ajax manager Michel has some juggling to do at the back given the injury list, with Bouwman expected to come back into the defensive unit. Adingra returning to the squad adds spark in wide areas, and with Arokodare and Edvardsen leading the attack, there is still plenty of threat even without Dolberg.

• Hajduk Split: Silic; Hrgovic, Raci, Maresic, Acapandie; Fayad, Del Moral; Sanyang, Dali, Soticek; Sego
• Ajax: Ter Stegen; Gaaei, Baas, Bouwman, Rosa; Brandt, Mokio, Klaassen; Ouzane, Arokodare, Edvardsen

Recent Form

Hajduk Split are genuinely flying right now. Nine matches, eight wins, including a comeback victory over Dinamo Zagreb at the weekend that underlined just how much belief is running through this squad. They conceded late in both legs of the Rakow playoff tie, which showed a slight vulnerability when holding a lead, but the overall picture is one of a team in excellent shape. Three of their last four home wins have come without conceding, and they have scored first in eight of their last ten outings. When Hajduk get their noses in front, they are very hard to shift.

Ajax arrive with momentum that has stalled slightly. After winning five of six matches to get through qualifying, back to back draws against Excelsior and NEC Nijmegen feel like a slight dip. The defensive numbers are a concern too, five matches without a clean sheet heading into this one. Michel’s side can clearly attack, and their away record this season is impressive, but there is a sense that they are conceding more than a side of their quality should. Losing Dolberg and Caio Henrique in the same game has clearly disrupted things.

What makes this genuinely intriguing is that both sides like to score first and both have the attacking tools to trouble anyone. Ajax have found the net at least twice in every away game this season. Hajduk at Poljud with a crowd behind them have been a different animal to the travelling version. The form lines are interesting and neither side comes in as a dead cert.

Head-to-Head Record

The history between these clubs is sparse but significant. They have met only twice before, both times in the 1994 to 95 Champions League quarter finals, the campaign that ended with Ajax lifting the trophy. That Ajax side, featuring some of the most celebrated players in European club history, won 3-0 on aggregate. It was a different era, a different Hajduk, and a very different Ajax.

This is effectively a fresh chapter with no modern reference points to draw on. Over thirty years of separation means head to head records carry almost no weight here. What we can say is that the previous encounter was one way traffic, and Ajax come in as favourites again, though the gap between these clubs is considerably narrower in 2026 than it was in 1994.

Key Stats

• Hajduk Split have scored first in eight of their last ten matches, which is central to how they win games
• Ajax have failed to keep a clean sheet in their last five matches despite an otherwise excellent away record this season
• Hajduk are unbeaten at home since April and are looking to secure a fifth straight home win at Poljud

Hajduk Split vs Ajax Betting Tips

This is a match where the attacking quality on both sides points toward goals, but the defensive fragility on the Ajax side and Hajduk’s tendency to make things tight at the back when they are in control creates some interesting angles. The overall picture suggests goals are on the menu, and the first goal could be decisive given how both sides set up to build from a lead.

Cards Prediction

A European opener between two sides who both like to press and compete hard for territory, you would expect the referee to be busy at some point. Hajduk will be fired up in front of their home crowd, and Ajax’s midfield will not back down. A moderate card count feels right here, with two or three yellows across the ninety minutes being a reasonable expectation rather than anything approaching a bloodbath.

Over and Under Goals Prediction

Both sides like to score, neither has been keeping clean sheets with any consistency, and the atmosphere at Poljud tends to push the game at pace. Over 2.5 goals looks a solid call. Ajax have found the net at least twice in every away game this season, and Hajduk have the weapons to contribute at the other end. This has the feel of a game that delivers on the goal front.

Correct Score Prediction

A 2-1 home win feels right. Hajduk score first, Ajax equalise and show why they are the higher profile side, but Hajduk’s home strength and the crowd behind them prove the difference in the end. It would be a fitting result to mark their return to European group stage football.

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) Prediction

Yes, and with some confidence. Ajax have scored in every away game this season and Hajduk are finding the net with real regularity. Even with the defensive improvements Hajduk have made at home, facing an Ajax attack of this calibre means there will be openings. Both teams to score looks like strong value here.

Bet Builder Tip

A Hajduk home win in a match where both sides score and the goals flow fits the form patterns on both sides perfectly, making these three picks a natural combination for the bet builder.

Final Match Prediction

Hajduk Split have waited a long time for a night like this, and the Poljud crowd will be extraordinary. The form is there, the belief is there, and they have the tools to hurt Ajax, who arrive with a patchy defensive record and a few important names missing. This is not a straightforward away day for Michel’s men, regardless of the reputation Ajax carry.

The prediction is Hajduk Split 2-1 Ajax. A hard fought, entertaining opening group stage fixture where the home side’s momentum and crowd advantage proves just enough to edge it. Ajax will provide moments of real quality, but Hajduk have earned the right to be favourites in their own backyard on current form.

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