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Millwall
West Ham UnitedFour wins on the spin. Six more goals than anyone else in the Championship. West Ham United are flying right now, and they arrive at The Den as genuine title contenders rather than just early season pretenders. The Hammers have rattled in at least three goals in each of those four victories, including a stunning 6-0 demolition of Wrexham last week, and the hunger in this squad looks very real indeed.
Millwall are not in crisis, but the numbers at the back are causing real concern. Thirteen goals conceded in five Championship matches tells its own story, and while Alex Neil got a point from a tough trip to Middlesbrough in midweek, his side gave up a two goal lead to get it. When West Ham come to town carrying this kind of firepower, those defensive frailties could be brutally exposed.
This one takes place at The Den in Bermondsey, with West Ham making the short trip across East London for what is the first competitive meeting between these two rivals since February 2012. It is a Championship fixture that carries genuine table significance, with the Hammers sitting top on goal difference and Millwall only four points behind them in eleventh. Local bragging rights, league position and form all collide in one of the more charged atmospheres in English football.
Neither side goes into this fully fit, and there are a couple of selection calls worth watching closely on both benches.
Alex Neil looks likely to name a similar side to the one that drew at Middlesbrough on Tuesday night, with Tairyk Arconte leading the line after his third Championship goal in six starts. Lyndon Dykes is expected to play in a deeper supporting role behind him, with the shape built around a compact midfield block designed to limit West Ham’s space in the final third.
Nuno Espirito Santo will probably go with Walker-Peters at right back given Veltman’s fitness concerns, but the rest of the team should look very familiar after that six goal romp against Wrexham. Castellanos comes back in up front, with Piroe alongside him, and the engine room of Bowen, Mukasa, Engels and Solomon providing the creativity behind them.
West Ham’s Championship form has been exceptional. Four consecutive victories, each with at least three goals, and a goal tally that puts them six clear of the next best attack in the division. Nuno has clearly instilled a real attacking identity in this squad, and when you are putting six past Wrexham and still finding the net in a cup defeat to Fulham, confidence in front of goal is not something this team is short of. The EFL Cup exit on Tuesday might sting briefly, but the Hammers can now put their full focus on the league, and that feels like a very good thing for them.
Millwall’s recent run has been a real mixed bag. Four defeats in six games since the end of August had alarm bells ringing at The Den, but back to back points from Bolton and the draw at Middlesbrough has steadied the ship somewhat. The problem is how they are getting those points. At Boro they led by two goals and nearly threw it away completely, which suggests the defensive unit is nowhere near as solid as Neil would want it to be ahead of this one. A clean sheet against Bolton is the one bright spot in an otherwise leaky back line that has shipped thirteen times in five Championship matches.
The contrast in momentum is stark. West Ham are in the kind of groove where everything seems to click, the goals are coming from all over the pitch and the team looks cohesive and dangerous. Millwall, despite the recent point gathering, look like a side still searching for its best shape. Playing a midweek away game before hosting your biggest rivals of the season is not an ideal preparation either, and the fitness and freshness gap between these two sides could matter a great deal come the final twenty minutes.
This is the first time these two clubs have met in a competitive fixture since West Ham won 2-1 in the Championship back in February 2012, which means there is over fourteen years of pent up rivalry waiting to be released at The Den. The fact that there is so little recent head to head data to go on makes this one harder to read from a historical perspective, but it also means neither side carries any particular psychological baggage from recent encounters.
What we do know is that The Den has always been one of the toughest away trips in English football. The atmosphere is fierce, the pitch is tight and the home crowd gets right behind the Lions in a way that can genuinely unsettle visiting teams. West Ham will know what is coming, and how they handle that early pressure could set the tone for everything that follows.
The angle here is pretty clear. West Ham are in brilliant attacking form, Millwall are leaking goals at an alarming rate, and the Hammers will be fresher after resting their cup squad on Tuesday. The Den will be loud and hostile, but the quality differential between these two sides right now feels significant enough to back West Ham to leave Southeast London with all three points and the goals to show for it.
A first competitive London derby between these clubs in fourteen years, played at The Den in front of a crowd desperate to see their side cause an upset. This fixture has the ingredients for a feisty afternoon, and with Millwall likely to get stuck in physically as their best route back into the game, expect a healthy card count. Over three and a half bookings looks like a reasonable market to explore.
West Ham will carry the attacking threat and look to dominate possession, which naturally pushes corners their way. Millwall will soak up pressure and try to hit on the break, which means the Hammers will spend large periods camped in the opposition half. Over nine corners in the match feels achievable given how West Ham have been playing, with wide players constantly driving into dangerous areas.
Millwall have scored in five of their six matches since late August, and even against stronger opposition they tend to find a way to get on the scoresheet. West Ham’s defensive record away from home is decent but not watertight, and with Arconte in form and the Lions desperate to make a statement at home, there is enough evidence to back both teams to score here. Yes is the call.
West Ham to win 3-1 feels like the most likely outcome. Millwall will grab a goal because their attack has been productive enough and the Hammers have not been keeping clean sheets on the road. But the visitors have the firepower, the depth and the momentum to take control of this game and put it to bed in the second half, much as they have done against everyone they have faced in the Championship so far.
With West Ham averaging well over three goals per game in their recent wins and Millwall conceding at nearly three per game in the Championship, the conditions are ripe for a high scoring afternoon. Over two and a half goals looks almost certain, and over three and a half is not far behind it as a confident selection given what both sides have been producing and conceding in recent weeks.
| Market | Selection |
|---|---|
| Match Result | West Ham United to Win |
| Both Teams To Score | Yes |
| Total Goals | Over 3.5 Goals |
West Ham winning in a game where both sides score and the goals flow freely is entirely consistent with everything we have seen from both clubs in recent weeks, making these three selections a natural fit for a single bet builder.
Millwall will make a real game of this early on. The Den crowd will roar them forward, they will press high and try to disrupt West Ham’s rhythm, and there is every chance they get a goal of their own. But sustaining that level of intensity for ninety minutes after a draining midweek away trip is a very big ask, and once West Ham get their passing game going and start rotating the ball, the gaps in Millwall’s defence will begin to appear.
Nuno’s side are simply too good right now, too well drilled and too prolific to be stopped by a Millwall team that has been conceding goals for fun. The Hammers win this, they win it with goals to spare, and they leave The Den with three points that keep them right at the summit of the Championship. Millwall 1 West Ham United 3.