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Roma
Inter MilanTwo perfect records, both teams averaging three goals a game, and a fixture that carries genuine title weight in September. Roma and Inter Milan head into Sunday evening’s clash at the Stadio Olimpico as the only sides in Serie A yet to drop a league point, and something has to give. The Giallorossi have been quietly brilliant under Gian Piero Gasperini, defensively resolute and clinical in front of goal. Inter, meanwhile, have been the kind of team that makes you spill your coffee, capable of going two down and then winning 5-3 without breaking much of a sweat.
The gap between these two right now feels razor thin on paper, but the head to head record tells a very different story. Inter have turned trips to Rome into something of a routine exercise in recent years, and that history is impossible to ignore no matter how good Roma currently look.
The game is played at the Stadio Olimpico in Rome, home of AS Roma, in what is one of the standout Serie A fixtures of the early season. With both clubs sitting top of the table and the international break looming immediately after, this is a match that could shape the title conversation before it has barely begun.
Gasperini has a couple of selection headaches to sort through, though the news is mostly positive after Monday’s win at Torino. Inter have two notable absentees that will shape Cristian Chivu’s options in the middle of the park.
Gasperini looks set to restore his first choice back four with Ndicka and Wesley returning, which gives Roma a much more comfortable look defensively than they had at Torino. The big call up front is whether Dybala or Soule gets the nod alongside Malen, and given the quality of opposition Dybala’s creativity and experience probably just edges it. Kone could force his way into midfield after his cameo appearance.
Roma possible XI: Svilar; Mancini, Balerdi, Ndicka; Molina, Kone, Cristante, Wesley; Soule, Dybala; Malen
Chivu loses Calhanoglu and Stones but still has enormous quality to call upon. Lautaro Martinez is almost certain to come back into the attack after being rested, and the front line of Thuram and Martinez is as good as anything in European football right now. The midfield loses its most experienced organiser without Calhanoglu, but Barella and Zielinski are more than capable of stepping up.
Inter possible XI: J. Martinez; Bisseck, Akanji, Bastoni; Diouf, Barella, Zielinski, Jones, Dimarco; Thuram, L. Martinez
Roma’s domestic form has been outstanding. Four wins from four in Serie A, 12 goals scored and only one conceded, and that run extends further back than just this season. Dating back to last campaign, they have now won nine consecutive league matches. Gasperini has built something genuinely impressive here, with a defensive structure that looks far more dependable than Roma sides of recent years, combined with an attacking threat that has very few peers in Italy right now. The 2-0 win at Torino on Monday was workmanlike rather than spectacular, but they got the job done, which is exactly what top sides do.
The key figure in all of this is Donyell Malen, whose numbers are frankly absurd. Twenty goals in 22 Serie A appearances since joining in January, which puts him in a different stratosphere to everyone else in the division. The next highest scorer over that same period has managed 10. When a striker is contributing at that rate, it gives the whole team a different kind of confidence, knowing that chances will be taken.
Inter’s form is equally impressive but carries a very different flavour. Chivu’s side have won all four Serie A games but they have done it the dramatic way, coming from behind, scoring in bunches, producing the kind of football that keeps neutrals glued to the screen. The 5-3 comeback against Udinese after being two down inside 20 minutes was extraordinary, and before that they beat Napoli in a five goal thriller. Their longer term Serie A record is also worth noting: 23 wins and just one defeat from their last 30 league matches. That is the mark of a genuinely elite side, not a team riding their luck.
This is where Roma fans will feel a knot in their stomach. Inter have won the last five Serie A meetings in Rome, which is remarkable on its own. But the aggregate scoreline across those five home games for Roma reads 2-11 in Inter’s favour. That is not a blip or a run of bad luck. That is a pattern that speaks to a genuine psychological and tactical edge that Inter have established over their rivals at this specific venue.
Zoom out a little further and it gets no easier for the home side. Inter have won nine of the last 11 league encounters between the clubs home and away. The most recent meeting ended 5-2 to Inter in Milan. Gasperini knows the scale of the challenge here, and whatever he says publicly, those numbers will be sitting in the back of his mind when he sets his team up.
Both teams have been flying and both have the firepower to hurt anyone in Italy right now. But the head to head record is too significant to brush aside, Inter have quality running through every line, and Thuram in particular has a habit of hurting Roma. The smart angle here is to back Inter to win while still expecting Roma to contribute to an open and entertaining game.
Yes, both teams to score looks nailed on. Roma have scored in every game this season and their attack is in brilliant form. Inter have been leaking goals themselves, conceding three against Udinese alone. With Malen and Dybala on one side and Thuram and Lautaro on the other, goals are coming at both ends. Back BTTS.
Given Inter’s habit of winning these meetings comfortably and their ability to score from all angles, a 1-2 away win makes plenty of sense. Roma will create enough to get on the scoresheet, but Inter have the quality and the mental edge to take the three points back to Milan.
Marcus Thuram is the standout pick here. Three goals and two assists in his four previous appearances against Roma, involved in 12 goals in his last nine Serie A matches, and coming into this fixture with enormous confidence after scoring against Udinese. He is the kind of player who saves his best for the biggest stages, and this is exactly that kind of game.
Over 2.5 goals is the call. Both teams are averaging three goals per game in Serie A, neither defence is completely watertight right now, and the tactical setup of both sides encourages attacking football. Even if the gaffers approach this one with a degree of caution given the stakes, the attacking quality on the pitch will still produce goals.
| Market | Selection |
|---|---|
| Match Result | Inter Milan to Win |
| Both Teams To Score | Yes |
| First Goalscorer | Marcus Thuram |
Thuram scoring first fits perfectly with Inter winning a game that sees both sides find the net, given his record against Roma and his current goalscoring momentum across this season.
Roma are in the best form they have shown in years and at home they carry a genuine threat. But Inter are the reigning champions for a reason, they have a near flawless recent record against this opposition in this stadium, and they have the kind of attacking depth that can find goals even when plans go slightly awry. Chivu will set his side up to control the midfield, and without Calhanoglu he will need Barella and Zielinski to lead that battle. On balance, Inter have too many reasons in their favour.
Roma will give them a game and will score, because that is what this team does right now. But Inter’s clinical edge and their dominance of this fixture points in one direction. We are backing Inter Milan to take the win and the bragging rights, with Roma grabbing a consolation in what should be an entertaining evening of football at the Olimpico.
Prediction: Roma 1-2 Inter Milan