Swindon Town vs Newport County Prediction, Betting Tips & Preview

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Swindon Town

vs

Newport County

KickoffTuesday 22 September 2026, 7:00pm

VenueRodney Parade

CompetitionEFL Trophy

TV ChannelSky Sports+

Swindon Town arrive at this one carrying some proper baggage. Three defeats on the spin, a 4-0 thumping from York City that set the tone, and a squad still patchy with injuries. Ian Holloway will not want to use the EFL Trophy as a write-off, but equally he needs points on the board in League Two, and that tension shapes everything about how Swindon approach this group stage game. Newport County are in a different kind of rut. Six games without a win in the league, a squad shuffling through injuries, and a fanbase that has barely had a moment to celebrate since that opening day 3-0 against Rochdale. Two draws have at least stopped the bleeding, but Hayden Mullins needs something more than a point to get spirits up at Rodney Parade.

This is a Group E EFL Trophy clash between two League Two clubs who are both desperate to find some form and some confidence. Neither can really afford another setback. That context makes it more interesting than your average Tuesday night Trophy tie.

Swindon Town vs Newport County Match Details

The game takes place at the County Ground in Swindon, in the group stage of the 2026-27 EFL Trophy. It is a Group E fixture with real consequences for both sides. Swindon have already lost their opening group game, which means a defeat here would effectively end their Trophy ambitions before they have properly started. Newport are yet to play in the competition this season and arrive knowing that anything less than a win puts them in a very difficult position to progress from the group.

Team News

Swindon are still carrying a notable number of absentees, which limits Holloway’s options. The positive news is that Mitch Clark returns after serving his one-match suspension at the weekend.

• Ollie Palmer: out
• Joe Snowden: out
• Joel McGregor: out
• Ben Middlemas: out
• Gavin Kilkenny: out
• Ryan Tafazolli: doubt
• Matty Virtue: doubt, though reportedly back in training
• Mitch Clark: available after suspension

Newport also go into this one short of options, though Mullins is expected to make changes and give fringe players a run out.

• Keenan Patten: out, long-term injury
• James Crole: making progress but not ready
• Kion Etete: making progress but not ready
• Jake Turner, Dan Sassi, Matthew Smith, Tanatswa Nyakuhwa: all in contention to start

Predicted Lineups

Holloway looks set to stick with a recognisable shape even with the injury pile. Clark comes back in at right back, which helps the defensive structure. Pearman and Nichols will likely be asked to provide the creative spark in the middle third, with Hackford leading the line.

Swindon: Ward; Clark, Debayo, Inwood, Kirkman; Ball, Butterworth; Pearman, Nichols, Glatzel; Hackford

Mullins will ring the changes as expected, using this as a chance to look at some of the players on the fringes of his squad. Turner gets the nod in goal. Sassi and Smith come into the mix, while Nyakuhwa gets a chance to push for a more regular spot.

Newport: Turner; Thomas, Sassi, Cameron, Jacob; Dibley-Dias, Smith; Adu-Poku, Bamba, Nyakuhwa; Gwengwe

Recent Form

Swindon’s last three games have made for grim reading. The 4-0 defeat to York City was alarming, the 2-1 Trophy loss to Crystal Palace Under-21s was the kind of result that stings extra because of the context around last season’s disqualification, and then the 1-0 defeat at Salford was decided by a goal 13 minutes from time. There is no single area where they have looked comfortable. The defensive numbers are poor, the attacking output has been inconsistent, and the confidence across the squad looks fragile. Holloway will know that a win here, even against Newport, would do a lot for the mood.

Newport’s form tells a slightly different story. They are not being thrashed, they are grinding out draws and staying in games, but they cannot buy a goal or a win. The goalless draw at Accrington at the weekend was their first away point of the season, which is a minor positive, but they have failed to score more than once in any of their last four outings. That is a concern for Mullins. A team that cannot score goals regularly is always going to struggle to string results together, regardless of how tight they are defensively.

What both sides share is a clear lack of momentum and a need to rediscover what made them tick in pre-season. The EFL Trophy group stage is not always the most glamorous backdrop for a revival, but sometimes a Tuesday night win is exactly what a squad needs to get the belief flowing again.

Head-to-Head Record

The head to head record here is firmly in Swindon’s favour right now. The Robins have won each of their last four meetings with Newport, including a 2-0 victory at the County Ground back in February. Newport have not beaten Swindon since a 2-1 win at Rodney Parade in February 2024, and their last win at the County Ground was a 1-0 scoreline all the way back in April 2022. That is a long time between away wins at a particular ground.

Swindon know how to handle Newport. The pattern of those recent meetings suggests Holloway’s side are comfortable in this fixture, even when they are not at their best elsewhere. For Newport, breaking that sequence would require something they have not consistently shown this season: cutting edge in the final third.

Key Stats

• Swindon have won four consecutive meetings with Newport County, including a 2-0 win at the County Ground in February
• Newport have failed to score more than one goal in any of their last four matches across all competitions
• Swindon lost their opening EFL Trophy group game, meaning defeat here ends their chances of progressing from Group E

Swindon Town vs Newport County Betting Tips

The head to head record is the single biggest factor here. Swindon are at home, they know how to beat this Newport side, and they have an extra edge of desperation after losing their opening Trophy game. Newport’s attacking form is a real worry, and even with a reshuffled Swindon back line, the Exiles’ inability to score in bunches makes a high-scoring game unlikely. The value looks to be in backing Swindon to edge it in a tight, low-scoring affair.

Cards Prediction

Both sides are in slightly fraught form and this is a competitive cup game with real stakes. There will be some needle and some frustration, particularly if it stays close into the second half. Three or four bookings across the match feels right for a fixture of this type. Expect a few late challenges as both teams chase the win.

Correct Score Prediction

Given Swindon’s superior record in this fixture and Newport’s struggles to find the net, a 2-1 home win looks the most likely outcome. Swindon should have enough to take control, but Newport’s ability to stay compact means a clean sheet for the Robins is probably asking too much.

Over and Under Goals Prediction

Neither team has been prolific recently, Newport in particular have been very low on output, and with both sides fielding changed or patched-up lineups, the quality in the final third may not be at its sharpest. Under 2.5 goals looks like the smart call here. Three goals would be the upper end of what I would expect from this fixture.

Corners Prediction

Swindon tend to be the more attacking side at home, getting bodies forward and looking to work the channels. Newport will sit a bit deeper and invite pressure. That pattern tends to generate a steady flow of corners for the home side especially. Seven or more corners in the match looks a reasonable call, with Swindon likely to take the majority of them.

Bet Builder Tip

A narrow Swindon win with both teams finding the net in a low-scoring game ties together the head-to-head dominance, Newport’s limited attacking output, and the likelihood that the Exiles nick a goal even when they are well off their best.

Final Match Prediction

Swindon need this win badly. Three defeats in a row, a home crowd that has seen little to cheer recently, and the real prospect of Trophy elimination before November. Newport will make it awkward because that is what they do, but their inability to score goals consistently is a serious handicap in a game where they probably need to take the game to the home side.

The head-to-head record does not lie, and Swindon at the County Ground against a Newport side short of form, goals and confidence is a combination that points one way. Swindon Town 2-1 Newport County.

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