ATP Chengdu Final Prediction: Alejandro Davidovich Fokina vs Hubert Hurkacz

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We are down to the final two at the ATP Chengdu Open, and it is a genuinely intriguing showdown between second seed Alejandro Davidovich Fokina and fifth seed Hubert Hurkacz. Two contrasting but dangerous players, one title up for grabs.

Alejandro Davidovich Fokina vs Hubert Hurkacz

These two have met six times before, with Davidovich Fokina holding a 4 wins to 2 advantage in the head to head. Their most recent encounter came at the United Cup in January 2024, where the Spaniard came through in three sets to extend that lead. It has been a strange year for Davidovich Fokina though. He last played competitive tennis at Umag back in July, where a quarterfinal loss to Alex Molcan was followed by back problems that kept him out for months. He missed the entire North American hardcourt swing and the US Open as a result, so making a Chengdu final represents a serious statement of intent from a player who clearly has his body back in working order.

Hurkacz has had a frustrating season overall by his own high standards, but he has looked sharp throughout this week in Chengdu. The quicker hardcourt surface here suits his game beautifully. His serve becomes a genuine weapon on these conditions, and he has been moving forward with real intent, trying to take control of points early before rallies develop. That is the blueprint he will look to follow in the final. The concern for the Pole is what happens when Davidovich Fokina gets his movement going. The Spaniard is a significantly better mover and if Hurkacz is pulled into longer exchanges, those approaches to the net can be picked off by a player quick enough to retrieve and redirect.

Davidovich Fokina has served well throughout his run in Chengdu and physically looks fully fit, which matters enormously given how much his game relies on covering the court. Hurkacz will fancy his chances on serve and at the net, but Davidovich Fokina’s mobility gives him the tools to make those moments uncomfortable. With the head to head in his favour and his movement giving him an edge in the extended rallies, the Spaniard looks the value pick to close this out.

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