ATP Hangzhou Final Prediction: Daniil Medvedev vs Andrey Rublev

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The ATP Hangzhou 2026 final is set and it is a genuinely compelling one. Top seed Daniil Medvedev faces second seed Andrey Rublev for the title, and given how well both men have played across the week, this one is well worth previewing properly.

Daniil Medvedev vs Andrey Rublev

These two Russians have met nine times before heading into this final, with Medvedev holding a commanding 7 wins to 2 advantage overall, and that same 7 to 2 split applies specifically on hard courts as well. Both players navigated their respective halves of the draw with real authority. Medvedev has been especially clinical, not dropping a single set on his way to the final. Rublev was equally efficient in the latter stages, seeing off Kyrian Jacquet in straight sets in the semifinals to book his place here.

The reason this matchup has so consistently favoured Medvedev comes down to a fundamental stylistic problem for Rublev. His game is built around taking the ball early, loading up on the forehand, and overpowering opponents before they can settle. Medvedev is arguably the worst possible opponent for that approach. He absorbs pace better than almost anyone on tour, sits deep, redirects the ball with precision, and forces players to keep producing under pressure. Rublev essentially feeds the machine when he goes after it. Add in Medvedev’s more consistent serve and his deep comfort on hard courts, and you can see why the head to head looks the way it does. That said, when Rublev is truly locked in and finding his lines, he has the raw firepower to make life uncomfortable for anyone.

Rublev will absolutely come out of the blocks swinging and looking to disrupt Medvedev before he finds his groove. The issue is that Medvedev has looked almost unnervingly settled throughout this entire tournament. His level has barely fluctuated across the week, which is a significant warning sign for Rublev. As rallies extend and the pace slows down even slightly, Medvedev will start manufacturing errors from his opponent, particularly through the backhand side. Rublev might well take a set or push Medvedev hard in patches, but over the course of a full match, Medvedev looks the stronger player here.

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