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Thursday brings a packed schedule to the ATP 1000 event in Shanghai, with more than a dozen first round matches on the card. The top 32 seeds are all sitting this one out, which means there is genuine opportunity for players further down the rankings to pick up a confidence boosting win and get their Asian swing off to a strong start. Here is how I see the day’s main matches playing out.
These two have never met before, so there is no head to head record to lean on. What we do know is that Vallejo has been one of the more refreshing stories on tour this year. The 22 year old Paraguayan is ranked around 52 in the world and has been making his Grand Slam debut appearances this season, which tells you everything about the trajectory he is on. The Asian swing will be a new experience for him, but he arrives with genuine momentum and belief.
Royer, on the other hand, has found it difficult to sustain the level that carried him to a career high ranking earlier this year. The Frenchman has big groundstrokes on paper, but they have not been holding up under pressure in longer matches, and consistency has been a real problem. Vallejo is the younger, more in form player here and should be able to impose his game from the start.
Another first time meeting. Cerundolo has built his reputation almost entirely on clay, and that pattern has continued this season with big wins over Jannik Sinner and Casper Ruud on the dirt. However, he has shown some encouraging signs on hard courts recently, reaching the quarterfinals in Winston Salem and picking up his first top 30 win on the surface. That kind of progression matters when you are trying to become a more complete player.
Mejia comes in as a qualifier and has just the one career win on hard courts at tour level. He simply has not been able to make that step up consistently on the ATP Tour yet. Both players tend to grind from the baseline rather than overwhelm opponents with pace, but Cerundolo has the greater experience of winning tight situations at this level and should be able to stay patient and clinical when it counts.
Struff leads their head to head at one win to nil. The big German is always a danger when his serve is firing, and on any given day that weapon alone can carry him through a match. That said, Shanghai has not been a particularly happy hunting ground for him over the years, with this being only his fourth appearance in the main draw at 33 years old.
Landaluce has bags of personality and a massive forehand, but the hard court results simply have not come this season. Since Wimbledon he has managed just three wins on tour, and only one of those came against a top 50 opponent. That is not the form line of someone you want to be backing against a seasoned pro who knows how to close out matches. Struff’s experience and serve should see him through, even if it takes three sets to get there.
No previous meetings between these two, and their rankings sit very close together around the top 40. Stylistically they are quite different. Van de Zandschulp plays a flat, varied game and has the ability to hurt big name opponents on quick hard courts. Merida Aguilar is more of a heavy topspin merchant who looks to build points with depth and consistency.
Merida Aguilar has actually been in solid form since Wimbledon with just four losses to his name in that stretch, so you cannot dismiss him lightly. But Van de Zandschulp has a real track record on fast hard court surfaces and has knocked out multiple top 10 players on this type of court before. That experience of winning the big points in big moments gives him the edge here. He should be able to handle the pace of play better and find the right moments to step on the accelerator.