Reform Favourite to Win Next UK General Election

The next UK general election is due to take place by mid-August 2029 by the latest, though few expect Westminster to wait that long for a contest. Amid a background of political turmoil and a series of problems facing Keir Starmer’s Labour government, Nigel Farage’s Party Reform UK has made a tumultuous rise into the spotlight over recent months. But is  this surge in popularity enough to secure a win at the next General Election? 

Reform Odds

Reform’s surge in popularity during recent months is demonstrated by the latest odds with uk bookies placing Reform as a clear winner at the next general election, at 8/11 with Bet365 and at 4/ 5 with William Hill. In comparison: 

• Labour is quoted at 15/8 with Bet365
• Conservatives lag behind, at 7/1 with StarSports

At face value, these odds speak volumes about Reform UK’s popularity and perceived likelihood of winning the next general election. Yet, to gain a proper understanding of these odds we need to unpack the context and UK politics.  

What is Reform UK?

Reform UK is a right-wing populist political party co-founded by Nigel Farage and Catherine Blaiklock. The party was created in 2018 as the Brexit Party, advocating in favour of a no-deal Brexit yet failed to win any seats in the House of Commons at the 2019 General Election. Following the UK’s departure from the European Union, the party was renamed Reform UK in January 2021 and since then has campaigned heavily on a broader platform, advocating for limits to immigration, reducing taxation and opposing zero-net emissions policies. At the moment Reform has five members of Parliament (MPs), one member of the London Assembly, one member of the Senedd (Wales) and one member of the Scottish Parliament. It also controls twelve local councils. 

A big part of Reform’s appeal comes from dissatisfaction with both the Labour and Conservative parties. Polls demonstrate that many voters feel that neither party offers real change or adequately addresses what they view as the UK’s most urgent issues. 

• Issues such as cost of living, concerns about immigration and asylum and the healthcare system appear to be prominent among many of the UK’s voters. 
• For many, Reform is a popular choice because of its outsider status. Not being one of the two traditional parties on the political spectrum, Conservative or Labour, gives the party room to promise new solutions outside of this traditional political structure. 

UK Political Context

Once a fringe force acting on the periphery of British politics, Reform has recently surged into the spotlight over recent months. Its success is evident through the party having won dozens of local council seats, taken over control of authorities such as Lancashire, and even claimed a dramatic parliamentary seat in the Runcorn and Helsby by-election in May earlier this year where they managed to edge out Labour by just six votes.

This substantial increase in the Reform party’s popularity takes place amid a period of sweeping disruption in UK politics. Since Labour came to government under Keir Starmer in 2024, it has faced its fair share of challenges surrounding immigration, living pressures among other pressing issues. In the 2024 general election, Labour defeated the Conservative party with a huge majority of 174 seats, selling itself as the party of “wealth creation”, dedicated to improving living standards for working class people. This landslide victory against the then Prime Minister Rishi Sunak marked the end of a somewhat tumultuous fourteen years of Conservative government in the UK. It is within this volatile environment that Reform UK has been able to position itself as an insurgent alternative – tapping into disillusionment with the status quo and presenting itself as a vehicle for change. 

Demographics

• Support for Reform stems heavily from leave voters: people who voted in favour of Brexit have been found more likely to favor Reform. 
• It has particular strength among  older voters (50-64, 65+) and among non-graduates. 
• There are also many supporters who didn’t  vote in 2024 or who are shifting from other parties (predominately from the Conservatives) toward Reform. 

What must happen for Reform to deliver? 

For the current odds to come to fruition, Reform would need to build on its momentum and crucially convert the popular sentiment it has been enjoying into votes. By focusing on real turnout advantage rather than polls or social media their political support would be bolstered even further. Moreover, by targeting constituencies where Conservative or Labour are weaker, resources can be more strategically allocated to garner support to their direct advantage. Targeting the correct seats and focusing on real turnout advantage could enhance Reform’s already strong position, posing the party as an even greater threat to Keir Starmer’s government. 

A Reality Check 

So while the odds are clearly set to be in Reform’s favour (8/11), the upcoming months and years will be crucial to see if Reform is able to continue riding its current momentum or if the other parties’ campaigns prove more resilient. 

It is possible that bettors are trying to catch a ‘disruptor’ narrative by viewing Reform as an insurgent force upending the old duopoly. But translating that into real-world seats is an entirely different ballgame. 

Ultimately, while Reform’s odds are certainly striking and should be paid attention to, they should be taken as a lens, not a forecast. The path is narrow, the challenges real, and the outcome still far from certain.