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Crystal Palace
Nottingham ForestCrystal Palace are a club pulling in two different directions right now. Under Pierre Sage they have looked absolutely electric in cup football, putting seven goals past Middlesbrough and Lech Poznan without reply, but shift your attention to the Premier League and it is a completely different picture. Five games in, one win, 11 goals conceded, and a spot down in 15th that nobody at Selhurst Park saw coming for the reigning European champions. Nottingham Forest, on the other hand, have quietly put together a reasonable start away from home under Oliver Glasner, even if their own ground has been something of a fortress in reverse, with four competitive home games producing zero goals for the hosts. Glasner returning to Selhurst Park in the opposition dugout for the first time adds a layer of edge to what is already a fascinating fixture.
Both clubs are chasing only their second Premier League win of the campaign after the international break gave everyone a chance to regroup, and with Forest showing genuine quality on the road, this has all the ingredients of a cagey, competitive affair.
The fixture takes place at Selhurst Park in South London, with both sides returning to Premier League action after a three week international break covering September and October. It is a top flight clash that carries real weight for two teams who will feel this early part of the season is already running away from them if they do not start picking up points.
Sage has a few reasons to be cautious but also a couple of welcome fitness boosts heading into this one. The defensive situation in particular is a genuine concern, with Palace already thin at the back before a suspension further reduces his options.
For Forest, Glasner got most of his international contingent back in one piece, but there are two notable absentees. Igor Jesus picked up a calf injury and could miss around a month of action, while Nikola Milenkovic suffered a bruised bone and is expected to sit out this match specifically. Neco Williams came through Nations League duty fine but has since developed a fever, leaving his availability for the trip to South London in doubt.
Sage looks set to go with Benitez in goal behind a reshuffled back line that is going to need to be organised given how many bodies are missing. Khalaili and Sarr returning gives him more to work with in the attacking areas, and Kamada should slot in behind Strand Larsen as Palace try to find some cutting edge they have been lacking in the league.
Palace: Benitez; Richards, Ahanor, Canvot; Khalaili, Timber, Wharton, Mitchell; Kamada, Sarr; Strand Larsen
Glasner will be without Milenkovic at the back and may also be missing Williams at wing back, which gives him a selection headache on the left side of his shape. Gibbs-White and Delap will be expected to carry the creative and goalscoring load, with Ndoye providing width and dynamism alongside them.
Forest: Sels; Cunha, Diomande, Murillo; Munoz, Schlager, McAtee, Williams; Ndoye, Gibbs-White, Delap
Crystal Palace’s Premier League form is genuinely troubling for a side that spent last season lifting European silverware. Conceding 11 goals in five league games is a number that stands out badly, with only Chelsea shipping more in the entire division. The 4-1 home defeat to Manchester City and the 3-2 loss to Ipswich at Selhurst Park tell you everything about the defensive vulnerability Sage has not yet managed to iron out. The goalless draw at Leeds last month was actually a relative high point, which says plenty about how difficult this campaign has been on the league front. In cup competition though? Completely transformed. Seven goals scored, none conceded across two home ties. It is like watching two different teams.
Forest’s story away from home is one of the more encouraging subplots of the early Premier League season. Four points from away matches puts them behind only Liverpool, Manchester City and Arsenal in that specific table, and the win at Aston Villa back in September showed real quality. Delap opened the scoring that afternoon and looks genuinely settled in this side. The flip side is that at the City Ground, Glasner’s men have been dreadful going forward, failing to score across four competitive home fixtures. A trip away from home might actually suit them better right now, and that is a strange thing to say about any top flight club.
Palace’s weakness defensively and Forest’s confidence on the road are the two threads that tie this preview together. Sage’s back line is depleted and has already been cut open repeatedly this season. If Forest get Morgan Gibbs-White and Delap firing in combination, they will cause real problems.
Here is the number that will get Palace fans nervous before a ball is kicked. Crystal Palace have not beaten Nottingham Forest since December 2011, when Glenn Murray scored the only goal of a Championship match at the City Ground. That is a long time without a win against one opponent. More relevant to Sunday is what has happened in recent Premier League meetings, where each of the last three clashes has finished 1-1. Three straight draws at the top level between these two sides suggests a pattern of closely fought, tight games where neither side can quite pull clear.
Palace’s record as hosts in this particular fixture has been no better than their away form against Forest, so Sage cannot draw too much comfort from being on home soil. The head to head trend points firmly toward goals being shared.
The head to head history is screaming draw, the defensive frailties on the Palace side are screaming goals, and Forest’s away form is screaming they are worth backing to be competitive here. The best angles on this fixture come from the goals markets and the individual performers rather than trying to pick a winner in what looks like an evenly matched contest.
Yes, and it feels fairly confident. Palace have conceded in four of their five league games and have been cut open repeatedly at Selhurst Park. Forest have Gibbs-White and Delap to unlock them. Going the other way, Palace have Sarr and Strand Larsen capable of threatening a Forest defence that is missing Milenkovic. BTTS yes is the call.
This is a game with a bit of needle in it, Glasner returning to his old club and two sides scrapping for points they badly need. Palace’s defensive line is disrupted and they may be forced into some desperate last ditch challenges if Forest get in behind them early. Expect four or more cards across the ninety minutes to be a realistic proposition.
Liam Delap gets the nod here. The 23 year old is already up and running for Forest after opening the scoring at Villa, and Palace’s makeshift back line looks like the kind of defence a powerful, direct striker can bully. He is Glasner’s focal point and with Gibbs-White feeding him big chances from deep, the England man looks a fair shout to get on the scoresheet first.
Over 2.5 goals. Palace have been shipping goals for fun in the Premier League, and this Forest side have enough quality in the final third to exploit those spaces. Three goals or more in ninety minutes feels more likely than not given the defensive injuries Palace are carrying and the attacking threat Forest can produce on their travels.
1-1. The head to head record makes it almost impossible to ignore, with three straight Premier League meetings finishing level. Both teams to score feels likely, neither team looks nailed on to find a winner, and a share of the spoils fits the context perfectly for two sides who will not want to lose ground this early in the campaign.
Over 9.5 corners looks the play. Palace will be pushing for something at home given their poor league position, Forest will look to hit on the counter and invite pressure at times, and both sides have the kind of wide options that generate corner counts. Sarr, Khalaili, Ndoye and Munoz all tend to operate in wide areas and force corners regularly.
| Market | Selection |
|---|---|
| Both Teams To Score | Yes |
| First Goalscorer | Liam Delap |
| Over and Under Goals | Over 2.5 Goals |
Delap scoring in a game where both sides find the net and the goals flow past 2.5 fits the pattern of this fixture and the form of the players involved perfectly.
Crystal Palace vs Nottingham Forest has 1-1 written all over it. The head to head trend is impossible to brush aside, three consecutive Premier League meetings have ended level, and the context of this game points in the same direction. Palace are defensively vulnerable enough to give Forest a route to goal, but Sage’s side have enough attacking talent fit and available to make sure Forest do not have things all their own way.
Glasner will know Selhurst Park well and will set Forest up to be hard to beat on the road, as they have been all season. Palace need points desperately but their league form at home has been poor, and with the back line missing several key figures, holding onto a lead if they get one will be a challenge. A point each feels like a fair reflection of where both clubs are right now.