France vs Belgium Prediction, Betting Tips & Preview

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France

vs

Belgium

KickoffMonday 5 October 2026, 7:45pm

VenueStade de France

CompetitionUEFA Nations League

Six wins on the spin for France against Belgium. Six. And the most recent of those came just days ago in Brussels, settled by a Michael Olise free kick deep into stoppage time when it looked like the Red Devils had done enough to nick a point. That is the kind of result that stings, and you can be absolutely sure Mark van Bommel’s squad have been thinking about nothing else since the full time whistle. The quick rematch gives Belgium a chance to put things right, but it also gives France the chance to twist the knife on home soil.

Zinedine Zidane has not lost since taking charge of Les Bleus, but the cracks started to show on Friday when Italy held them to a 1-1 draw at Stade de France. That result ended a four match winning streak in competitive games on home turf, and it has made this Nations League group genuinely tight. France sit just one point above Belgium heading into this one, which means Van Bommel’s men know that a win here would send them top of League A Group 1. The stakes could not really be much higher.

France vs Belgium Match Details

This UEFA Nations League clash takes place at Stade de France, the iconic ground in Saint Denis where Zidane lifted the World Cup as a player back in 1998. Now he returns as manager, looking to put his stamp on a French side that is still finding its feet after the Didier Deschamps era. It is a genuinely fascinating occasion beyond just the football, with two nations that know each other extremely well going head to head in a fixture that carries real group stage significance.

Team News

Both sides are dealing with notable absentees, and the suspensions in particular could shape how this game plays out.

• Dayot Upamecano is suspended after picking up a second yellow card against Italy, meaning Maxence Lacroix comes into the back line alongside Jeremy Jacquet, a pairing that did start together in the reverse fixture
• Kylian Mbappe remains absent through a knee injury he suffered on matchday one against Turkiye and has not featured since
• Michael Olise is fit and in fine form, having scored twice in this Nations League campaign so far and accounting for two thirds of France’s goals
• For Belgium, Kevin De Bruyne and Youri Tielemans are both suspended after collecting yellow cards against Turkiye, which is a massive blow to Van Bommel
• Romeo Lavia is expected to fill one of the midfield slots, potentially alongside Nicolas Raskin and Hans Vanaken
• Romelu Lukaku and Charles De Ketelaere are set to lead the attacking line for the visitors

Predicted Lineups

Zidane has options even without Mbappe, and that says everything about the depth France possess. Ousmane Dembele is likely to feature prominently, with Desire Doue and Rayan Cherki also pushing for starts alongside Olise. The Upamecano suspension forces Zidane’s hand at centre back, but Lacroix and Jacquet have played together before at this level so it should not be too disruptive.

France likely lineup: Maignan; Kalulu, Jacquet, Lacroix, Truffert; Cherki, Da Cunha, Camavinga; Olise, Dembele, Doue. For Belgium, Van Bommel faces a real midfield puzzle without De Bruyne and Tielemans pulling the strings. The expected shape: Lammens; Castagne, Ngoy, Mechele, De Cuyper; Lavia, Raskin; Lukebakio, Vanaken, Godts; De Ketelaere.

Recent Form

France have been grinding results rather than blowing teams away under Zidane. A 1-0 win over Turkiye on his debut, a 1-0 win over Belgium in Brussels, then that 1-1 draw with Italy where Alessandro Bastoni levelled late on. Les Bleus are unbeaten and still top of the group, but the Italy performance raised questions. Roberto Mancini’s side arguably deserved to win in Paris, and with Gianluigi Donnarumma keeping everything out before France nicked a point, it was not quite the dominant display the home faithful were hoping for.

Belgium’s form tells a different story though. They went down 1-0 to France in Brussels thanks to that last gasp Olise goal, but either side of that they have been solid defensively, keeping clean sheets against both Italy and Turkiye. Friday’s 3-0 win over Turkiye in Liege was convincing on the scoreboard, though it is worth noting that Turkiye finished with 23 shots to Belgium’s 17. Context matters there though, because eight of those Turkiye attempts came after De Bruyne had already put the game to bed in the second half, so Van Bommel’s defensive record should not be dismissed on that basis.

What Belgium have shown is an ability to stay organised and frustrate opponents. They were barely a whisker away from taking something off France in the reverse fixture until Olise conjured something special from a dead ball. That experience of being competitive against Les Bleus even without their best players will give Van Bommel’s squad genuine belief that they can do something here, even if the task of doing it at Stade de France is a very different proposition to defending a point in Brussels.

Head-to-Head Record

France and Belgium are level on 30 wins apiece historically, which tells you just how close and competitive this rivalry has been across the decades. But the recent run belongs entirely to France. Six consecutive victories, and the manner of some of those wins, including late winners and tight margins, shows that Belgium have often been in these games without being able to get over the line. The last time Belgium beat France was June 2015, and that feels like a long time ago now.

Home advantage matters in this context too. France at Stade de France is a very different prospect to France anywhere else. The atmosphere, the familiarity, the crowd expectation all play a part. Belgium have not beaten France on French soil in a very long time, and Zidane will be leaning on that record as motivation to end a short but irritating run without a home win under his management.

Key Stats

• France have won six consecutive meetings against Belgium, with the last Belgian win coming back in June 2015
• Michael Olise has scored two of France’s three Nations League goals this campaign, a 66.7% share, making him the standout creative threat with Mbappe absent
• Belgium kept clean sheets in two of their three group games, conceding only to France, and that sole goal came from a set piece in the final minutes

France vs Belgium Betting Tips

The suspensions for De Bruyne and Tielemans genuinely change the shape of this game. Belgium with their first choice midfield engine is a different animal to Belgium without it, and France on home soil with Olise in this kind of form is a tough proposition for any side in Europe right now. The smart money points towards France edging this, potentially in a low scoring affair where one moment of quality settles it.

Over and Under Goals Prediction

Four of France’s last five competitive home games have finished with under 2.5 goals, and Belgium are a side built to be hard to break down even when they are without key personnel. With the tension of a group defining fixture adding another layer of caution, under 2.5 goals looks the sensible call here.

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) Prediction

Belgium showed against Italy and Turkiye that they can keep a clean sheet, and France have only conceded once in four games under Zidane. With both defences capable of shutting up shop and the midfield battle likely to be contested and scrappy without De Bruyne and Tielemans, backing both teams to score feels like a stretch. No on BTTS.

First Goalscorer Prediction

Olise is the pick here without question. He has scored twice in this Nations League campaign already, both from free kicks, and France are certain to win set pieces in a match where Belgium will need to foul to break up attacks. He is confident, in form, and carrying a huge amount of the creative responsibility for Les Bleus in the absence of Mbappe. At the kind of prices you will find him at for first scorer, he represents real value.

Cards Prediction

This has all the ingredients for a feisty one. A needle rivalry, high group stage stakes, Belgium desperate to avenge a recent defeat, and a French side missing key players who will need to defend resolutely. Expect the midfield battle to get scrappy fairly early, and Van Bommel’s players will be physical in their attempts to unsettle the French backline. Over 3.5 cards looks a reasonable shout in a game where both sides have plenty to prove and not much room for error.

Corners Prediction

France dominate possession at home and like to work the wide areas through the likes of Dembele and the full backs. Belgium will sit relatively deep without the ball and invite pressure for spells, which tends to generate corners for the home side. Over 9.5 corners looks a fair line for a match where France will be doing a lot of probing and Belgium will be defending their box regularly.

Correct Score Prediction

France to win 1-0. It has been the scoreline in each of their last two meetings, and with Belgium missing their two most influential midfielders, the creative spark to really unlock a stubborn French defence is not quite there. One goal from a set piece or a flash of individual brilliance from Olise or Dembele feels like the most likely way this one gets settled.

Bet Builder Tip

A tight French win with Olise doing the damage fits everything we know about this fixture, with Belgium weakened in midfield and France content to control rather than go for the jugular.

Final Match Prediction

France have too much for this Belgium side right now, particularly with De Bruyne and Tielemans forced to watch from the stands. Van Bommel’s team are well organised and showed real resilience in Brussels, but there is a difference between holding on for 88 minutes before being undone by a moment of genius and actually going to Stade de France and winning a football match. That has not happened for Belgium in over a decade in this fixture.

Zidane will be desperate to get that home win on the board and restore some momentum after the Italy draw. France have the players to make it happen without Mbappe, and Olise in particular looks like a man who relishes these occasions. France to win 1-0, and another narrow but deserved victory continues their unbeaten run under their new manager.

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