Monday brings the curtain down on the third round at WTA Beijing, and the draw is thinning out nicely. There is genuine quality on show in the Chinese capital today, with some intriguing matchups that should tell us a lot about who has the game to go deep in this tournament.
Jovic had to dig deep just to reach this stage, grinding through a two hour and 45 minute battle against Harriet Dart after losing the first set. That kind of effort leaves marks, but the American has already shown she knows how to manage adversity this season. Rakhimova is a different proposition to Dart, a player who can construct points well and make opponents feel uncomfortable if they are not in control of the rally. She will fancy her chances if she can stop Jovic from taking over with that forehand.
The problem for Rakhimova is the head to head record. Jovic has beaten her twice already, including a three set victory in Dubai earlier this year, and that kind of familiarity counts for something at this level. Jovic’s ability to absorb pressure and flip from defence to offence in the same rally is a real weapon, and Rakhimova has already been on the wrong end of it. Fatigue from the Dart match is worth considering, but the matchup history and quality of Jovic’s game make her the right call.
A first meeting between two players who want completely different things from a tennis match. Bouzkova is a grinder who thrives when she can keep the ball in play, drag opponents into extended exchanges and wait for them to make errors trying to find a way through. Zheng Qinwen operates at the other end of the spectrum entirely, looking to end points quickly with a big serve and a punishing forehand that she loves to run around and hit inside out.
Zheng had an unusual route to this round, benefiting from Anna Kalinskaya’s retirement, which means her rhythm and match sharpness carry a question mark. Bouzkova, who worked hard across two tight sets against Kimberly Birrell, will know exactly how to probe that uncertainty by making Zheng play a lot of tennis early and testing her patience. Still, when Zheng’s first serve is landing and she is dictating from the baseline, she is a level above most players in the draw. Bouzkova can make it a contest, and almost certainly will, but Zheng should find her way through.
What a result Charaeva produced in the previous round. Coming from a set down to beat world number one Elena Rybakina is remarkable enough on its own, but the manner of it was even more striking. She reportedly became the lowest ranked player to recover from a set down and defeat a world number one since the WTA rankings began back in 1975. That is not just a good win, that is a historically significant performance, and it tells you something real about this player’s mentality under pressure.
Kartal arrives in decent nick herself after dismantling Xinyu Wang 6-3 6-2, and making the third round in Beijing for the second year running shows she belongs at this level. However, Charaeva fresh off a win like that is going to be extraordinarily difficult to handle. She reads pace well, redirects the ball aggressively, and clearly does not feel the occasion the way some players do. Kartal will make it competitive because she always does, but Charaeva has the momentum, the belief, and the form to keep this run going.
This is the standout match of the day without question. Swiatek opened her Beijing campaign in the sort of controlled fashion that makes opponents nervous, dismissing Gao Xinyu 6-2 6-3, while Vekic had to fight considerably harder, coming through a three set battle against Lin Zhu. Swiatek also has history at this venue, having lifted the China Open trophy in 2023, so she knows exactly what it takes to go all the way here.
Vekic is not without weapons. Her serve gives her free points, and her first strike game can disrupt even the most settled players before they find their rhythm. The head to head record, though, tells a stark story. Swiatek leads 4-0 and has rarely been seriously tested in those meetings. Her return game is exceptional, and once she starts picking up second serves and pushing Vekic back behind the baseline, the Croatian is going to find it very difficult to maintain any kind of offensive structure. Swiatek is the more complete player, the one in better form, and the one who has already shown she can win this tournament. She should cruise through today.
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