Semifinal day at ATP Tokyo and we are down to the final four, with two mouth-watering contests to get through before we find out who meets who in Sunday’s final. Carlos Alcaraz is still standing and gunning for back-to-back titles in Japan, but the path is not exactly straightforward from here. Both matches carry genuine intrigue, so let us get into them.
The head to head sits at one apiece in Vacherot’s favour, but records between players at this level can be deceptive, and this one particularly so given how different both men have looked in recent months. They arrive at this semifinal in strong nick, having both put in assured performances in the quarterfinals, and the tone of this match will likely be set by how freely each player is able to serve. Both Lehecka and Vacherot lean heavily on their serve for free points, and on a faster surface like this one, that weapon becomes even more decisive.
From the baseline, Lehecka is probably the more rounded and reliable of the two. Vacherot is a player who can absolutely compete at this level on quicker courts, and you would be a fool to write him off, but Lehecka’s two-sided power from the back of the court gives him a genuine edge in sustained exchanges. Provided the Czech stays fit and there are no physical concerns creeping in, his ability to dictate with both wings should prove the difference in what I expect to be a competitive and fluctuating contest.
Alcaraz leads this all-Spanish rivalry three wins to one, and the head to head reflects what most of us watching already know, which is that Munar has pushed him at times but rarely been able to see it through. Alcaraz’s quarterfinal was another of those slightly underwhelming afternoons from him, though in fairness he only had to play one set before Denis Shapovalov was forced to retire through injury while trailing six games to seven and one game to two. It has been that kind of tournament for Alcaraz, doing enough without ever really hitting top gear.
The encouraging thing for Alcaraz is that a match against a fellow Spaniard who he knows intimately might be exactly what he needs to find some rhythm from the baseline. He will be comfortable with Munar’s patterns, comfortable reading his game, and that familiarity could work in his favour. The key for the world number one is keeping unforced errors down and resisting the urge to go for too much too early in rallies. If he manages that and plays somewhere close to his ceiling, Munar will not have enough to stop him reaching the final once more.
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