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Hoffenheim
Bayer LeverkusenHoffenheim need this one badly. After losing four of their first five Bundesliga games this season, Christian Ilzer’s side find themselves sitting 13th in the table, just one point above the relegation zone. Back to back league wins for the first time this campaign would do wonders for the mood around SNP Arena and, more importantly, for the points tally. The problem is that Bayer Leverkusen are rolling right now, and they are absolutely not the side you want turning up when you are desperately trying to find your footing.
Carles Martinez Novell has his Leverkusen machine purring beautifully. Six wins on the bounce across all competitions, four clean sheets in their last six, 16 goals scored in that same stretch. This is a team that has hit a serious rhythm, and they will arrive in Sinsheim with absolutely no intention of letting it slip.
This Bundesliga fixture takes place at SNP Arena in Sinsheim, home of Hoffenheim. Leverkusen travel as one of the division’s in form sides, currently sitting fourth in the table and applying pressure on the teams above them, while the hosts are desperate for the kind of result that can shift the narrative around their season entirely.
Hoffenheim are dealing with a few notable absences that will test Ilzer’s squad depth, particularly through the middle and in wide areas.
Leverkusen also head into this one carrying a few injuries, though the depth of their squad means Martinez Novell still has plenty to work with.
Hoffenheim look set to line up with Tomas Baumann in goal, a back four of Vladimir Coufal, Robin Hranac, Koki Machida and Mads Rots, with Leon Avdullahu and Alexander Prass sitting in front of them. Bambase Conte, Fisnik Asllani and Adam Daghim should operate behind striker Tim Lemperle.
Leverkusen are expected to go with Mark Flekken between the sticks, Jarell Quansah covering at right back alongside Edmond Tapsoba, Patrik Medina and Jose Gutierrez. Aleix Garcia and Ezequiel Fernandez anchor the midfield, with Moussa Diaby, Ibrahim Maza and Afonso Moreira supporting Patrik Schick up top.
Hoffenheim were genuinely awful in the early weeks of the season. Four defeats from the first five league games is the kind of start that gets gaffers sacked, and the pressure on Ilzer was building fast. What has changed the mood slightly is that back to back wins have arrived, albeit one in the Bundesliga and one in European competition. A 2-1 home win over Borussia Monchengladbach on October 18 snapped a rotten run, and then a 3-0 midweek result against Lyon, who were sitting top of Ligue 1 at the time, showed there is genuine quality in this squad when it clicks. Those were the first consecutive unbeaten games of the campaign for Die Kraichgauer, and they will be desperate to make it three in a row.
One thing that stands out about Hoffenheim at home this season is that they have scored at least two goals in every single game at SNP Arena. They have lost three of those five fixtures, which tells its own story about the defensive side of things, but the attacking intent is clearly there. They will not park the bus against Leverkusen, which makes this a fascinating watch.
Leverkusen, meanwhile, are in absolutely stunning form. Six consecutive wins, including a 2-1 Bundesliga victory over Freiburg that knocked Die Breisgau-Brasilianer off the top of the table, and a comfortable 2-0 Europa League win over OFI Crete midweek thanks to a Jonas Hofmann brace. Die Werkself have conceded just four goals across their last six games while putting 16 past opponents. They are clinical, defensively organised, and operating with genuine belief. Fourth in the table, just one point off leaders Bayern Munich and Borussia Dortmund, this is a side in the middle of a seriously impressive run.
Hoffenheim and Leverkusen have produced some competitive fixtures over the years, and Hoffenheim have occasionally made life difficult for the visitors at SNP Arena. However, Leverkusen have generally had the edge in recent meetings, and a Hoffenheim side that has struggled for defensive consistency this season is unlikely to suddenly turn into a fortress.
What the head to head record does reinforce is that goals tend to flow in this fixture. Hoffenheim’s attacking output at home has been consistent even in defeat, and Leverkusen are not a team that sits back and protects a lead from the first whistle. Expect an open game with chances at both ends.
The overall picture here is pretty clear. Leverkusen are the standout team in form, they are clinical at both ends of the pitch, and they are playing with the kind of momentum that is very hard to stop. Hoffenheim will cause problems going forward given their attacking output at home, but their defensive record suggests they will concede. The most interesting angles are around goals and specific scorelines rather than trying to back the upset.
Yes, back both teams to score here. Hoffenheim have found the net in every single home game this season regardless of the result, and even against this level of opposition, Ilzer’s attack has enough quality to get one. Leverkusen have been scoring freely throughout their winning run, so goals at both ends feels like the most natural outcome in this fixture.
Patrik Schick is the man to back here. The Czech striker is the focal point of the Leverkusen attack and will benefit from the creative support of Diaby, Maza and Moreira behind him. Hoffenheim’s defensive injuries leave them a little vulnerable, and Schick has the predatory instincts to punish them early. He is a genuine threat every time he plays and this fixture sets up well for him.
Hoffenheim 1-3 Bayer Leverkusen feels right. The hosts have enough going forward to get on the scoresheet, and they will need to commit men forward given what is at stake for them in the table. But Leverkusen have the quality and the momentum to win this convincingly, and three goals from a side that has been averaging nearly three per game over their recent run looks very achievable.
With Leverkusen likely to dominate possession and push Hoffenheim back for long periods, and with the hosts needing to attack when they can, this has the makings of a corner heavy fixture. Both sides getting forward means plenty of wide play and deliveries into the box. Going over on the corners total looks a strong play here.
| Market | Selection |
|---|---|
| Both Teams To Score | Yes |
| First Goalscorer | Patrik Schick |
| Correct Score | Hoffenheim 1-3 Bayer Leverkusen |
All three selections complement each other perfectly, with Schick opening the scoring fitting neatly into a game where both teams find the net and Leverkusen ultimately run out comfortable winners.
Hoffenheim will give this a go. They almost have to, given where they are in the table, and their attacking record at home this season shows they are not a side that simply rolls over. Tim Lemperle and company will have their moments, and SNP Arena should be up for it from the first whistle.
But Leverkusen are playing some seriously impressive football right now, and six wins on the bounce does not happen by accident. Martinez Novell has this squad well drilled, well motivated, and bursting with goal threats. Hoffenheim 1-3 Leverkusen is the call, and it feels like a fair reflection of where both sides are right now.