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Liverpool
Brighton & Hove AlbionLiverpool sit fifth in the Premier League table with 12 points, and while that is not a disastrous position, it is not where this club expects to be. Andoni Iraola has yet to oversee a top flight win at Anfield, which is a stat that will be gnawing away at everyone connected with the club. Brighton, though, roll into Merseyside in seriously impressive shape. Third in the table with 16 points, Fabian Hurzeler has built something genuinely exciting on the south coast, and the Seagulls are not coming here to make up the numbers.
This is a proper test for both sides. Liverpool need the points to stay in touch with the top two, but Brighton are pushing for a Champions League spot themselves and have the form to back up their ambitions. It should be a cracking watch.
This Premier League fixture takes place at Anfield, one of English football’s most atmospheric grounds, where Iraola’s side have drawn twice and lost once in the league so far this season. Brighton make the trip north looking to further cement their top half credentials against a side that has been unconvincing on home soil in the top flight this term.
Liverpool have a couple of notable doubts heading into this one, and depending on how fit those players are, Iraola may be forced into some creative selection choices in the middle of the park.
With Szoboszlai and Munoz both doubts, Iraola may turn to teenager Trey Nyoni in central midfield, which would be a big ask but the lad has shown enough to suggest he can handle it. Bradley Barcola and Rio Ngumoha would then cover the wide areas, with Florian Wirtz tucked in behind Alexander Isak up top.
Brighton are likely to line up in a structured shape with Pascal Gross and Chema Andres holding things together in midfield, and Charalampos Kostoulas leading the line. Diego Gomez and Maxim De Cuyper will be important wide outlets for Hurzeler’s side.
Liverpool’s Premier League form has been patchy, but Tuesday night gave the fanbase a real lift. Coming back from two goals down to beat Villarreal 4 to 3 in the Champions League showed real character, and there is clearly quality in this squad when it clicks. Their most recent league outing was a 2 to 1 win at Brentford on October 17, but it is worth noting that Brentford were reduced to ten men just before half time, which takes a bit of the shine off that result.
The defensive numbers are actually more encouraging than they might appear on the surface. Yes, Liverpool have let in 10 goals across their last four matches in all competitions, but across the Premier League season as a whole they have faced the second lowest non penalty expected goals against in the division, sitting at 7.50. In other words, they are not shipping chances left right and centre, they have just been unfortunate at times. Isak, meanwhile, is in ruthless form with five goals in six league appearances, and Ngumoha has been a genuine bright spark coming in from the right.
Brighton’s form is simply remarkable. Eight wins from 12 games across all competitions this season, with only one defeat. In their last four Premier League games alone they have scored 15 goals and kept four clean sheets, beating the likes of Arsenal and Crystal Palace along the way. Hurzeler has also taken points off Manchester United and Aston Villa this term. This is not a side that goes away from home and shuts up shop either. They have won three and drawn one of their last five away days, with their only loss coming at Chelsea back in August.
Brighton have beaten Liverpool in two of their last three top flight meetings, so Hurzeler’s side are not coming here with any kind of inferiority complex. The important caveat, though, is that both of those Brighton wins came at the Amex. When it comes to Anfield, the story is very different. Brighton have lost each of their last four visits to L4, and that is a trend that will not have gone unnoticed in the Liverpool dressing room.
Anfield has a way of making things difficult for even the most in form visitors, and while Brighton are excellent right now, there is a big difference between the Amex on a Tuesday night and Anfield on a Sunday afternoon with a crowd that is desperate to see their team finally get a home league win under the current manager.
This is a genuinely difficult match to call, but I think the value lies in backing a high scoring Liverpool win. The Reds finally look like they are building momentum after that Champions League comeback, Isak is in the sort of form defenders hate to face, and Anfield is overdue a proper home performance in the league. Brighton will create chances, because that is what they do, but I fancy Liverpool to edge a lively game.
Both of these sides play expansive, attack minded football and that tends to produce a healthy corners count. Liverpool will be pushing forward relentlessly looking for that first Anfield league win, and Brighton will carry a threat of their own going the other way. Back over 10 match corners with confidence.
Alexander Isak is the obvious pick and honestly, with five goals in six Premier League starts this season, ignoring him would be daft. He is sharp, he finds space in the box brilliantly, and Liverpool will be looking to feed him early against a Brighton back line that has been busy this season. Back Isak for first goalscorer.
Given Brighton’s tendency to ship goals even during their brilliant run of form, and Liverpool’s attacking firepower, I am going with a 3 to 2 home win. It will not be comfortable, Hurzeler’s side will make Liverpool work every minute, but the Reds have enough quality to get the job done at Anfield and finally claim that elusive home league victory under Iraola.
A high stakes Premier League fixture between two pressing sides with a lot riding on the result is always likely to produce bookings. Brighton play with intensity and do not shy away from the physical side, while Liverpool will be wound up tight under the pressure of needing a home win. Back over three cards in this one.
With Liverpool desperate for a win and Brighton’s attacking output at an extraordinary level right now, the goals should flow. Both sides have the firepower and the tactical mindset to push forward, and Liverpool in particular cannot afford to sit deep. Over 3.5 goals looks well supported by the evidence here.
| Market | Selection |
|---|---|
| First Goalscorer | Alexander Isak |
| Over and Under Goals | Over 3.5 Goals |
| Corners | Over 10 Match Corners |
Isak scoring in a high tempo, attack heavy game that produces plenty of corners is entirely consistent with what both of these sides bring to the table right now.
Liverpool 3 to 2 Brighton. The Reds finally get their first Premier League win at Anfield under Iraola, but they will have to earn every single point of it. Brighton are not here to make up the numbers and Hurzeler’s side will push Liverpool all the way, but the combination of a desperate home crowd, Isak in brilliant form, and the quality of Wirtz and Barcola in behind should be enough to get the job done.
This feels like the game where Liverpool click into gear at Anfield in the league. Nine points off City at the top, they cannot afford another stumble at home, and I think that sense of urgency will drive them over the line in what should be a brilliant Sunday afternoon fixture.