St James’s Place Festival Hunter Chase Tips

David Young Hunter Chase Tips

Not a race I’d ever get hugely involved with and it’s often the case that the best horse, and highest rated runner doesn’t land this with Billaway in 2022 and then 2016 the last time before that but Angels Dawn with her allowance on top has to go well given her form at The Festival.

It has been a plan for SHEARER to give trainer Paul Nicholls’ daughter a good chance in this event though. He took the race twice in succession with Pacha Du Polder who finished 5th the year prior when the trainer helped former Olympic cyclist Victoria Pendleton achieve a goal, who hadn’t even sat on a horse 12 months before. She was only beaten just under 3 lengths in the race and with respect, any jockey with more experience probably would have won that year. 

Olive Nicholls has a 26% strike rate over fences from her 27 rides and she’s running at a 32% strike rate when pairing up with her father in all races including two wins on SHEARER this season. The horse is 4 from 4 over fences now and the latest two wins came off the back of a 601-day break. This is a genuine long-term plan and if anyone can pull it off, it’s Paul Nicholls. 

The other runner I feel has to be mentioned in this sphere is ITS ON THE LINE who has his own ideas about doing things but twice has finished second in this race. He comes with more risks than some, but he also has much more ability than most so he’s always worth a second look in this type of contest.

SHEARER – 1 STAR WIN @ 10/1 (Betvictor)

ITS ON THE LINE – 1 STAR WIN @ 11/2 (Generally)

Not everyone’s cup of tea, granted, but the Foxhunters’ Chase market at this stage provides a couple of very attractive ante-post bets.

Last year’s winner Hazel Hill has shown his fallibility when being beaten at Wetherby at the beginning of February. What was most alarming was his tendency to shift markedly right-handed at his fences – something which reared its head slightly when winning the Foxhunters last year. It is entirely possible that race fitness will iron this idiosyncrasy out, but when you consider he is still the general favourite for the race, there must be value elsewhere.

When you consider that his nemesis at Wetherby, Minella Rocco, can be backed at 6/1 and has any amount of innate back-class to bring to the race, then I’m finding it hard not to recommend backing him.

Derek O’Connor got a lovely tune out of Minella Rocco at Wetherby, allowing the former Gold Cup runner-up to jump fluently, straight as a die, and travel with supreme efficiency. All attributes that will stand him in good stead when it comes to the nature of the Foxhunters. O’Connor will surely keep the ride, and having him on your side is worth it’s weight in gold in a race like this.

Last year’s second, Shantou Flyer, is also worth a small investment. Beaten only four lengths last year, cutting the deficit back all the way to the line. It is possible that with a slightly more aggressive ride, this confirmed stayer can turn the tables.

Shantou Flyer has joined Rose Loxton since last season, and it’s possible this could eke out a bit more improvement, given that Rose is such an integral part of the Paul Nicholls stable operation. While, he looked as good as ever when absolutely bolting up at Fakenham last week. He is simply too big at 12/1.

In a race where most people will still be concentrating on the aftermath the Gold Cup, run 40 minutes earlier, give yourself a chance to reap some returns with these two classy sorts – one of whom finished second in the Gold Cup of 2017, and the other certainly wouldn’t have been out of place in a Gold Cup.