County Hurdle Tips

Will Smith Country Hurdle Tips

Kargese @ 10/1 (ante-post)

As always, there has been plenty of talk regarding handicap plots for the Cheltenham Festival, and it seems that the William Hill County Handicap Hurdle at 2.00 on the Friday of the Cheltenham Festival is front and centre of these clandestinal plots. The likes of Kopeck De Mee, Absurde, Ethical Diamond, Valgrand, Mclaurey and Karniquet have had numerous podcast mentions or blog inches devoted to them.

However, there is one horse entered in the race who has hardly had a mention and to me, looks absolutely tailor-made for it and given how well last year’s juvenile form is working out, might just be one of the best handicapped horses running at the whole Cheltenham Festival.

At 10/1 each-way with William Hill or 888Sport for 5 places and with the ‘Non-Runner, No Bet’ concession in place, Kargese is the horse in question.

The NRNB angle is important as at most points this season, the Mares’ Hurdle has been mooted. But for such a keen-going type going over 2m4f for the first time, and in a potentially tactical affair, she wouldn’t make as much appeal in that as she would in the cavalry charge of the County Hurdle over 2m1f.

Since her debut for Willie Mullins, when only just touched off by the classy Kala Conti at the DRF, Kargese was only beaten last season by Majborough and Sir Gino. You don’t need me to tell you how good that makes her.

Either side of those Cheltenham and Aintree runs, Kargese won two Grade 1’s and marked herself down as a horse that could really develop further as she matures, both physically and mentally.

The run in the Triumph Hurdle was huge, and it was only after the last that the beastly Majborough got the better of her, and interestingly the time she clocked that day was comfortably faster than Absurde did in winning the County Hurdle 40 minutes later.

Then on to Aintree, and again it was only after the last that she was trumped by the mighty Sir Gino, and she emerged with huge credit that day.

Kargese’s seasonal reappearance came in a Grade 2 mares’ race at Ascot last month, and the fact that she was beaten at odds of 2/5 will have many people believing that she was underwhelming.

Indeed, it was disappointing to be beaten, but when you consider that the likes of Lossiemouth and Ballyburn were also beaten on seasonal debuts in the UK, and the general MO of the trainer is to bring along horses massively from their first start, it’s not so worrying at all.

Furthermore, she was held up off a muddling tempo, keen enough, and on ground that was probably on the lively side for her. That she was galloping on at the finish was testament to her ability, as she was probably ridden to beat Ooh Betty (no mug at all) and was blindsided by the rallying and vastly underrated Take No Chances.

The form is better than many think, and when you consider Kargese ran the final circuit that day noticeably quicker than Altobelli did when winning the 2m3½f handicap, and who is now rated 147 following a similar win, it gives further ballast to some sizable positivity from that run.

The UK handicapper had her on 141 going into that race, and the only thing he could reasonably do when the ratings are confirmed early next week is drop her 1lb or 2lbs, but certainly not raise her. On last season’s juvenile form, a mark of 140ish is ripe for the taking.

Ndaawi @ 20/1

A number of factors have aligned to make the 10/1 ante-post bet on Kargese for the County Hurdle at 2.00 today a very nice one – she is the choice of Paul Townend above some quality stablemates and the field is not as competitive as can sometimes be the case for a County Hurdle.

There is one factor that perhaps could have been slightly more in her favour – that I would have preferred slightly softer ground. But she is clearly extremely well-handicapped on last season’s juvenile form and will be nicely tuned up for this after an excellent pipe-opener at Ascot.

As mentioned, it’s not the deepest County Hurdle ever run, and I think there is another horse to back that’s flown slightly under the radar.

At 20/1 each-way with Bet365 or William Hill for 5 places, Gordon Elliott’s Ndaawi is a 1-star * bet to provide the Cullentra handler with his first winner at the Festival this year.

That said, Elliott has had no less than 15 horses to my count, that have been beaten less than 10 lengths over the first three days. He’ll be happy with how most have run, it’s just that all important winner trumps most assessment of performance.

Ndaawi was a decent 3rd in last year’s Fred Winter, when perhaps not totally in love with the heavy ground. Since then, he’s had several high-class flat targets which haven’t gone to plan but signifies the esteem in which the horse is held at the yard.

Better judged on an excellent 2nd in the Galway Hurdle, Ndaawi possesses the right mix of speed and stamina to prosper in a County Hurdle and can go well fresh today at an overpriced 20/1.

David Young Country Hurdle Tips

Only 16 runners declared for this race so you’d expect there would be fewer hard luck stories in running and there’s a whole host of runners who could conceivably win this. Both Absurde and Lark In The Morning won at The Festival last year despite doubts about the ground for both and this year should be more to their liking. Kargese is the choice of Paul Townend who doesn’t look well handicapped on what she’s won but certainly looks the right type to appreciate a fast run Handicap like this and she’s got some good form in defeat from her juvenile season last year.

HANSARD is another runner who should be suited to this make up, and although I’m not convinced by the first time cheekpieces on him statistically, (0 from 45 since 1997 in this race), Gary Moore runners over hurdles in Handicaps priced 20/1 or under are 10 from 71 with a positive ROI, although no winner since 2021. Still, from a form perspective, he had a good start to last season landing the Gerry Fieldon with a nice performance in Ascot after and his latest effort of three following a break (assuming he had an issue) saw him run well behind Golden Ace and Burdett Road when around 10lbs wrong with that pair compared to in a handicap. This ground will suit him too and I suspect they’ve been targeting a big handicap with him this season. 

I’m also happy to take a chance on the first-time tongue-tie and hood combination for IRISH PANTHER who wore the hood first time last time out when 3rd behind McLaurey at the DRF. He’s now 7lbs better off with that rival on British ratings but he travelled as well as the winner to the last and he rallied to the line almost as strongly as the second. The winner was very well backed and clearly well handicapped but I’ve mentioned the 7lbs swing here. The tongue-tie would infer they may have heard a noise and that they feel he might have a bit more to offer in the finish and he did try this before in his previous yard although it didn’t seem to make the difference at the time. That race was against Daddylonglegs who is top weight here and rated 152 vs the 128 of IRISH PANTHER, they ran off levels that day. In his bumpers he ran behind Ballyburn when sent off favourite and beaten 4 lengths and prior to that he was second to Fact To File beaten just 2 lengths. He’s had two runs for his new yard with both runs coming in Handicaps where he’s finished 3rd each time, but he is looking like a horse who is back to a level of form that means if he’s half as good as he looked in his younger days, then he could be very well handicapped under the 7lb claim of Cian Cullinan once again. He is yet to win a race but he’s an each way price and I think that price looks too big with 5 places up for grabs.

HANSARD – 1 STAR WIN @ 12/1 (Bet365)

IRISH PANTHER – 1 STAR EW @ 20/1 (Generally) 5 Places

The owner has had the late emergence of Jade De Grugy for the Mares Hurdle on the Tuesday, and so it wouldn’t surprise at all if Kargese went for what would a much more suitable target in the shape of Friday’s William Hill County Handicap Hurdle.