Carlisle and Kempton – Monday 8th November

As we embark on another week here at WhichBookie, we can reflect again on a good Saturday afternoon of action as the NAP of the day, Wa Wa – delivered in fine style at 8/1 at Naas. I didn’t see the betting opportunities available yesterday and even though it was good, informative racing – I’m quite glad that I didn’t get sucked into having a bet. Instead, it is racing today from both Carlisle and Kempton that intrigues me today and I have three selections from the two cards to hopefully tide us over for today. 

Starting off with Carlisle today and the 1.00 race, which is a 2m4f novices handicap chase and this race sees the long awaited chase debut of Midnight River, who looks to have an excellent chance and is priced accordingly. However, taking odds on chase debutantes would never be my style and I sense there are some well enough handicapped horses in behind him in the betting. The most notable of them is Notre Pari, who looks set to strike soon enough for trainer Olly Murphy. It was perhaps an underwhelming year for Notre Pari last term, as his four chase runs yielded no wins and until his final appearance at Uttoxeter, didn’t come too close to striking. That last effort was eye-catching though and there was plenty of money around for him that day, and he ran an honorable race in defeat. He starts this season off a mark of 130 and his trainer could hardly be in better form, so there is plenty to suggest he might be able to run very well fresh here. At a price of 5/1 generally, I am hoping he can turn over the favourite. 

The 2.40 at Carlisle is another novices handicap, this time run over hurdles and over 2m4f. This looks like a two horse race to me with the top two in the betting, and it’s a case of which horse you’d prefer to rely on. My money, like it was last time out, will be on Malpas for the equally in-form combination of McCain and Hughes. Malpas was desperately unlucky not to land a couple of races last season, with last flight falls becoming something of a niche for him. However, he proved the naysayers wrong when winning in facile fashion at this track a few weeks ago and he now tackles his first handicap and steps back up in trip. I don’t think that the trip will be of any inconvenience and I struggle to think that this horse isn’t better than a mark of 115 would suggest. He is also fundamentally a decent jumper for a horse that has fallen so many times. At a price of 9/4 with Bet365 – he is also fancied. 

Moving to Kempton for one selection from their card and it is of very similar ilk to my first selection at Carlisle. The 3.30 race is another Handicap Chase for Mares only over 2m4f. Alpha Carinae represents the Olly Murphy team on this occasion, who are operating at a 41% strike rate in the last two weeks, and this mare is often best on good ground and can also run well when fresh. Looking back at her performances at Perth last year when winning a novice hurdle and her third in a Graded race at Doncaster last year, she boasts form that would suggest she is better than 121. Fergus Gregory has also ridden a few nice winners for this stable in the last couple of weeks, and he claims a handy three pounds back off the mare. At a best price of 9/2 with William Hill, and with conditions in her favour, she should run well.