WhichBookie racing analyst Will Smith provides a preview and an ante-post each-way selection for the Middle Park Stakes at Newmarket on Saturday 25th September.
Date of Tips: 01/08/2021
Disclaimer The odds for these selections were correct at the time of publishing (10:26 01/08/2021) but may have changed since. Please check the latest price before placing your bet.
Reflecting on the month of July as a whole, it was a great month with plenty of winners and plenty of excitement. Unfortunately, and not through a lack of effort, the last week ended up with a bit of a whimper at Galway and Goodwood, but it was nice to get back on the winning thread again yesterday. Sherkin Island was an impressive winner of the maiden, and Coill Na Soineanna ran a huge race for third in the competitive handicap. These two paired with Bolivar being a non-runner, led us to a profitable day. It has given me the confidence to try and find a winner on the last day of the Galway Festival.
The 3.50 race is the first place I’ll be starting off with for this staying flat maiden over 1m4f. There is a clash between form and inexperience in this race and on this occasion, I’ll be siding with experience. Plenty of recent winners for this site have had form tied in with a horse called Rosscarbery, for Joseph Murphy – and I’m hoping that she can have her own day in the sun this afternoon in a winnable maiden. She has been running with extreme credit this season thus far, with placed efforts behind good Harrington fillies such as The Blue Brilliant and Citronnade. That is the best form on offer in this race and a rating of 80 seems perfectly fair given her previous exploits.
However, my only worry in this race is the unraced filly from Dermot Weld, called Fine Lace. I have had some success with Weld runners already this week and this filly could well be a cut above the mark. However, she is making her debut in August of her 3YO season and over this sort of trip, so it can’t have all been straightforward so far. Rosscarbery has a terror draw out in 15, but in these maidens where so few will want to go forward, proving she breaks adequately – this should be okay. With Rosscarbery likely to run her usual solid race, I can’t see any reason why she won’t be bang there in the finish. At a price of 9/4 with William Hill, I hope she can have her day.
My second and final selection of the day comes in the finale from Galway, and I’ll be hoping to finish the Festival with a decent run. The 5.20 race is the second division of the 1m6f handicap for horses rated between 50-75. These are invariably tricky horses to decipher through, but I would be quite keen on a horse at an each way price. No Thanks is your favourite for this race, after winning earlier in the race. However, I think the price is more dictated on the trainer, who infamously got One Cool Poet to win a few races during the week of Galway. He is not the most prolific scorer overall, so I think could be opposable at 9/4.
Instead, my money will be siding with Karakhan, for the inform Denis Hogan and Joey Sheridan. This horse also ran earlier in the week, but in a different code. He came third in a competitive handicap hurdle behind Clonbury Bridge, and has been progressive throughout the summer over flights and has been very unlucky not to get his head in front. That being said, I think there are genuine possibilities that the step back to a staying flat distance off a mark of 71 could unlock that win. When trained by Mick Halford earlier in his career on the flat, he was a good horse that would indicate that this rating is not out of reach whatsoever.
I think that the generous price of 11/1 with Ladbrokes, with 5 places available is more than reasonable and I have availed of it. Best of Luck.