WhichBookie racing analyst Will Smith provides a preview and an ante-post each-way selection for the Middle Park Stakes at Newmarket on Saturday 25th September.
|Hearts Are Trumps||25/1||each-way
Date of Tips: 29/07/2021
Disclaimer The odds for these selections were correct at the time of publishing (09:36 29/07/2021) but may have changed since. Please check the latest price before placing your bet.
Sticking to the theme of focussing on the big Galway race of the day first and foremost, and it is the turn of the Guinness Galway Hurdle at 6.15 today.
A race that Willie Mullins has won two out of the last three renewals of with classy top weights, in the shape of Sharjah and Aramon. He attempts the same trick here with Saldier, fresh from a decent run at Royal Ascot, and with the services of the jockey that steered both Sharjah and Aramon to victory, Patrick Mullins, he could be a live one at a price.
But it is another Royal Ascot also-ran that I am going to side with, in the Emmet Mullins-trained Cape Gentleman, who at 9/1 each-way with Paddy Power (6 places) represents the value at the top of the market.
Emmet Mullins is quickly becoming, if he has not already become, a trainer to very seriously take note of. He operates in a way far removed from many others, and yields results more often than not.
Witness his cherry-picking of the Kelso/Cheltenham bonus with The Shunter for winning races over 2m over hurdles, and then at the fiercest meeting of all, having the wherewithal to run over 2m4f over fences.
Sent of 5/2 favourite for the Ascot Stakes, Cape Gentleman was inconvenienced by having to come from too far back off a slow pace, and was one of only two horses to make up significant late gains (the other being MC Muldoon, who runs in today’s novice hurdle at 7.15.)
Given a forceful ride over hurdles over 2m on decent ground, and Cape Gentleman has a Group 2 win to his name in the Dovecote Novices’ Hurdle, beating a very solid yardstick in Calico.
At some stage Cape Gentleman will win a decent handicap over hurdles, and it’s worth siding with him at 9/1 each-way with Paddy Power today. Assuming he goes forward in a race that suits that style, for crack conditional Kevin Brogan, he can continue the good run of the stable at the meeting – form figures of 21242 so far this week.
The other one to back at wild price is Hearts Are Trumps at 25/1 each-way with SkyBet, who offer a whopping 7 places. Sixth in the race in 2019, and a cracking second in the race last year, it is notable that JP McManus has seen fit to pull out Band Of Outlaws to ensure that his race regular Hearts Are Trumps can get a run as first reserve.
Maybe the trend of last year’s runner-up triumphing this time around in the big race can be continued, after yesterday’s performance from Royal Rendezvous.
Elsewhere on the Galway card, there is a bet to be had in the Guinness Open Gate Brewery Beginners’ Chase at 5.10 – I think I can count on the fingers of one hand the bets I’ve had in beginners’ chases over the last few seasons, but this one stands out.
Low Sun has had three runs for Denis Hogan since being brought out of the Willie Mullins stable, but all three have suggested he retains a very large chunk of the ability that has seen him win a Cesarewitch and also on his one and only foray to the Galway Festival before this year.
Intriguingly, Hogan has sent Low Sun over fences for two of his assignments, and he has run with real credit and jumped soundly. At 13/2 each-way with Bet365, Low Sun is a good bet to run very well in a race full of horses with a little to prove on a number of counts. Low Sun will be fit and firing after a creditable run two days ago here, that was much better than the bare from implied.
One bet at Goodwood today, and it comes in the best race of the day, the Group 1 Qatar Nassau Stakes at 3.35. Lady Bowthorpe has been a revelation this season, and has a bit more improvement left to be unlocked in my view, stepping up to 1m2f for the first time here.
She has been within 1½ lengths of Palace Pier, Snow Lantern, Mother Earth and Alcohol Free, who are all genuine top-notch Group 1 winners this season, and this represents form way in excess of what the three-year-old fillies that she takes on today, have produced to date.
At a general 9/2 each-way, I can’t see how she isn’t shorter. Despite the obvious worry about three-year-olds improving and in receipt of weight-for-age, I think Lady Bowthorpe can genuinely defy that today.