WhichBookie racing analyst Will Smith provides a preview and an ante-post each-way selection for the Middle Park Stakes at Newmarket on Saturday 25th September.
|Solene Lilyette||6/1||Each Way
5.35 Gowran Park
6.35 Gowran Park
|Palace Rock||13/2||Each Way
8.05 Gowran Park
Date of Tips: 11/08/2021
Disclaimer The odds for these selections were correct at the time of publishing (10:12 11/08/2021) but may have changed since. Please check the latest price before placing your bet.
After a slightly anti-climatic Monday due to a couple of non-runners, I swayed away from the English flat action yesterday and in truth, having had a look at the results, I feel that was probably a prudent move. It allows me to focus on Gowran Park this evening, which has a very nice evening card including a Listed event. This is before the three day summer meeting at Tramore starting tomorrow, which I’m only itching to get involved in. I have three selections from Gowran this evening to go to war with.
Starting off with the feature race itself, the 5.35 Hurry Harriet Stakes over the trip of 1m 1 ½ furlongs. It’s probably not a vintage renewal of the Hurry Harriet, but there are plenty of progessive fillies taking part in this race and looking to bridge the gap between handicap and listed class. The favourite, So I Told You, is top of that list, having had a very productive summer so far. However, she was held the last time at Sligo and could well be vulnerable in this sort of race as a result, as I feel her progression might well be slowing up at this stage.
Instead, I am going to take a chance on Solene Lilyette for the Slattery team, who has it to prove, but I don’t think is anywhere near finished improving. This Moyglare cast-off, who was a maiden in seven starts for Dermot Weld, has been a revelation since joining these connections and has registered two wins and a second from three starts for this barn. Her second was last time out, when hiked up in the ratings for a Curragh handicap. She just lost out to Longbourn, who ran a very credible race at Galway next time, while the third, Miss Myers, supplied the goods at Sligo last week. It looks strong form and gives her every right to contest in this sort of race. She is currently best priced 6/1 with a fair few firms, which I think is a backable each way price.
The next selection comes in the 6.35 race, which is a competitive 7 furlong handicap with a lot of Galway form coming to the table again. I am going to take a risk on the talented, but quirky top-weight, Nebo. This horse won a few starts back at Fairyhouse, when making all, and he is not the type of horse to give a freebie out in front without risking the consequences. His effort in the big 7 furlong handicap at Galway was decent, and he was dropped a pound for that effort in 5th.
Most importantly in this race, he is drawn in stall 1, and therefore has the perfect chance to attack from the front under positive tactics. Spanish Tenor looks the only other viable pace in this race, and if these two don’t slit each other’s throats out in front, they could well stay in handy positions all the way home. Nebo has the ability to strike off this sort of mark and with these sorts of conditions, and can’t be underestimated. At a best price of 14/1 with Ladbrokes, who are offering the usual 3 places, he is an each-way bet.
The final race is the 8.05, which is a 1m4f handicap and the closing race on the card. I am a big fan of Palace Rock in this race, who I believe still could be a very good horse for these connections. Having won a maiden over this trip in Dundalk, he did it nicely on his hurdles debut at Navan, but has been slightly disappointed since. He made his flat reappearance at Naas a couple of weeks ago, and ran a nice race to finish fifth over a trip that surely would have been inadequate. It’s also interesting that a young claimer is being replaced by Chris Hayes this time round, which feels like they mean business.
Palace Rock is off a workable mark of 79 for this race, and unlike a lot of these, still has a massive chance of improvising past this mark in the future. Using that Naas run as a stepping stone, I would be disappointed if he wasn’t to play a hand in this race this evening. At a best price of 13/2 with Sky Bet, who are offering an outlandish 5 places, he is an each way bet also.